How to get to 500...

[Data]

Ways for Atlantic Southeast to get to 500 aircraft and 50 states...

Few possibilities for growth out there, max possible addition, maybe 10-20 aircraft. That leaves 320 to go. Mergers? Well, Inc has tried before with ExpressJet, but the big problem there is their scope restriction and whether or not the new United will restrict or relax scope. How many airframes do they have? 150? We have the weekly rumor of Mesaba/Comair/Compass, maybe 1, maybe all 3? And the latest rumor swirling around is Southwest execs meeting with Atlantic Southeast (this from the Airtran pilot's union.) Hmmm...that's a good rumor. Let's run with that. It will also put us in more states than any other merger/purchase. So, Atlantic Southeast to join with Southwest. Details coming soon...

 

[Tarzan]

I hope not for our future's sake. I'd like to have some airframes left where I can still exceed a $100 an hour. If these planes end up at a fee for departure, where else is there to go?

 

[zawillif]

Full merger with SkyWest. Or full merger with Eagle or ExpressJet.

 

[johnpeace]

Full merger with SkyWest.

That kind of makes the most sense.

The new NMB rules for establishing union representation make it far more likely (than in the past) that the next ALPA push at Skywest will be successful. If that happens, it'll create a much more favorable environment for a merger of the 2 airlines.

I dunno' if that's such a good idea, but it seems like the most direct course to their stated goals.

 

[crj567]

WOW-

Did I miss something? This memo was about a "goal" a "dream," or a "wish" to be that size... Now everyone is taking this as though this is a concrete deal-etched in blood-made before God and the SEC to guarantee such growth to investors, employees, politicians, and space men...


-Look-it is just something positive to make people feel a little better about the position we are in. (Which still hasn't changed.) It is not news-it really ain't gonna happen. Not the 500 aircraft-not the 50 states. Not now. Not ever.

-But it sure fired people up!

 

[i fly boxes]

meger with pinnacle, oh YEAH! you heard it here first

 

[777forever]

What about Horizon? Many have said we are getting the 700s from Horizon, but no official statement has been made yet. What if INC is looking into purchasing Horizon?

Horizon is a very profitable subsidiary of the Alaska Air Group. Alaska Airlines is ripe for a merger and selling off Horizon to Inc in exchange for cash and a long term fee for departure contract with Inc will greatly improve Alaska's Debt to Capital ratio. With that kind of a financial record Alaska would be even better positioned for a merger.

For Skywest they would get a very profitable and technologically advanced carrier. More importantly, they would get access to the Q400 certificate, which might be the regional aircraft of the future the way the 50 seat jet has gone obsolete. Also, Inc will have 15ish or so 700s to place with AS or SKW.

By the way, this is just an hypothetical situation I came up with so please no spreading Atlantic Southeast merging with Horizon rumors

 

[777forever]

meger with pinnacle, oh YEAH! you heard it here first

I thought about that as a possibility but for several reason I believe this can't happen.

Pinnacle already has long term contracts set up with their respective major carriers at a set rate. Seeing that both Inc's carriers and Pinnacle fly the same airplane and AS and Pinnacle share the same union representation it could turn out to be quite a mess to say the least.

When INC was proposing to buy XJET they had already come to an agreement with CAL on a contract if XJET was acquired by INC. The agreement included CAL flying for SKW and AS, but XJET's MEC wasn't down with the scope issues that involved downsizing XJET and neither was XJET's BOD.

Inc management backed away as they believe XJET will eventually fall to bankruptcy.

If any mergers/acquisitions take place in the regional industry I think it will between either Inc and a failing/failed company or Inc and a wholly owned regional.

 

[i fly boxes]

I thought about that as a possibility but for several reason I believe this can't happen.

Pinnacle already has long term contracts set up with their respective major carriers at a set rate. Seeing that both Inc's carriers and Pinnacle fly the same airplane and AS and Pinnacle share the same union representation it could turn out to be quite a mess to say the least.

When INC was proposing to buy XJET they had already come to an agreement with CAL on a contract if XJET was acquired by INC. The agreement included CAL flying for SKW and AS, but XJET's MEC wasn't down with the scope issues that involved downsizing XJET and neither was XJET's BOD.

Inc management backed away as they believe XJET will eventually fall to bankruptcy.

If any mergers/acquisitions take place in the regional industry I think it will between either Inc and a failing/failed company or Inc and a wholly owned regional.

Oh yeah, I was just joking anyways, but it would give ASA 140 more airplanes........... dun dun dun...........

 

[Tarzan]

Atlantic Southeast merging with Horizon

You heard it here first!