But didn't the amount of pilots undergoing training drastically decline since 2001?
One of the many factors in play here. That's one that we have going for us, but other factors could work the other way.
Some of the pilot shortage is due to growth in the regionals, much at the expense of the Majors.
Take Delta's SLC hub, for instance. In 2000, Delta's flights out numbered Skywest's by a count of 150 to 100 (and Skywest was mostly Brasillias). Now, Skywest has a ton more RJ's, and Delta has reduced it's number of flights. I don't know the exact numbers, but it appears that Skywest flights now outnumber Delta's 4 to 1. Many of these flights are going into larger cities that could take a 737, and it takes 2 or 3 times as many pilots to carry the same number of people.
When an RJ has a lower break even load factor, it's very competitive to take slots into major cities. With Jet fuel costs on the rise, the larger airlines are becoming more attractive because they typically burn less fuel per seat-mile. Again, the Majors are probably just pushing the Regionals as far as they can to keep costs down. When the Regionals can't compete, you pull a few 757's back out of Victorville, consolidate some RJ routes into 737s, and 737s into 757's, and problem solved. Am I on to something here?
If you're thinking that there's going to be several regionals declaring bankruptcy and liquidating because they can't staff their planes, I wouldn't hold your breath. I'm not a manager, but my bet is that they'll scale back, possibly discontinue leases on certain planes, retire or sell older turboprops, and the Majors will pick up the difference.
Again, there's many factors, don't limit your views to just one. Age 65 rule, and the economy are two other major factors that could come into play. I'm sure we could have a discussion on those, but I think this post is long enough for now.