How many New Hires does your airline get?

[ualdriver]

I don't think management is going to raise wages yet. When age 65 kicks in, that will solve this "pilot shortage" thing for 3 years or so. Throw in a down cycle in the US economy and they'll have plenty of guys lining up for those 20K/year regional pilot jobs. They're not going to permanently raise pilot payscales to attract pilot canidates when an ample supply will "reappear" -probably in just several more months.

 

[deadstick]

ASA isn't getting enough. about on average, about 25-28 a month.

Rumor has it we're going to start hiring guys with no experience and ASA will train them. Talk about desperate.

I was thinking about this scenario just the other day.

The helicopter industry hit the shortage a couple of years before the airlines. A lot had to do with the military holding on to pilots. Now one of the largest operators has done just what you mentioned. Bristow Group (BRS - formerly Air Logistics, or AirLog) has about 350 aircraft worldwide in support of, for the most part, offshore oil operations. Back in April, I believe, Bristow bought HAI. HAI was a huge helicopter training school (like the AllATPs of the rotorcraft world) that has operations in both FL and CA. BRS had a preferential hiring agreement with another company, Vortex helicopters. It was like a bridge program, except the pilots had to CFI for, 6-800 hrs before moving on because they were going right into PIC slots. Now, BRS just bought Vortex and they seem very happy with this whole arrangement. The 1000 hr helicopter pilot just starting at BRS, I believe, makes just under $50k (but the top end is a lot lower than airplane pilots), but they also have a great deal of debt: 1 hour of dual in the helicopter is about $225-250.

This works for both the pilots and the company. The company has a steady supply of pilots who are “known quantities” with standardized training. The overall job isn’t all roses, but this aspect seems pretty good.

 

[time builder]

I'm sure the majors are just seeing how far they can get the regionals to bend without breaking. As soon as the regional operators become more expensive, they can consolidate routes and hire more into the majors.

ualdriver also has a point, something could change to make the hiring slow down. I'm sure pilots being hired in 2000 didn't expect the hiring to drop so dramatically as it did in 2001 (not to mention the furloughs).

I think there's a feeling of invulnerablity when times are good, but things can change real quick.

 

[OzBushWhacker]

Downturn

But didn't the amount of pilots undergoing training drastically decline since 2001?

 

[time builder]

But didn't the amount of pilots undergoing training drastically decline since 2001?

One of the many factors in play here. That's one that we have going for us, but other factors could work the other way.

Some of the pilot shortage is due to growth in the regionals, much at the expense of the Majors.

Take Delta's SLC hub, for instance. In 2000, Delta's flights out numbered Skywest's by a count of 150 to 100 (and Skywest was mostly Brasillias). Now, Skywest has a ton more RJ's, and Delta has reduced it's number of flights. I don't know the exact numbers, but it appears that Skywest flights now outnumber Delta's 4 to 1. Many of these flights are going into larger cities that could take a 737, and it takes 2 or 3 times as many pilots to carry the same number of people.

When an RJ has a lower break even load factor, it's very competitive to take slots into major cities. With Jet fuel costs on the rise, the larger airlines are becoming more attractive because they typically burn less fuel per seat-mile. Again, the Majors are probably just pushing the Regionals as far as they can to keep costs down. When the Regionals can't compete, you pull a few 757's back out of Victorville, consolidate some RJ routes into 737s, and 737s into 757's, and problem solved. Am I on to something here?

If you're thinking that there's going to be several regionals declaring bankruptcy and liquidating because they can't staff their planes, I wouldn't hold your breath. I'm not a manager, but my bet is that they'll scale back, possibly discontinue leases on certain planes, retire or sell older turboprops, and the Majors will pick up the difference.

Again, there's many factors, don't limit your views to just one. Age 65 rule, and the economy are two other major factors that could come into play. I'm sure we could have a discussion on those, but I think this post is long enough for now.

 

[Inconceivable]

An RJ does not have a lower BE load <I>factor</I>, just a lower number of total passengers required in order to BE on a route. The percentage is significantly higher than for mainline equipment.

Not to be a jerk, just correcting semantics.

 

[DX Rick]

Just heard another one got canned for either later this month or Dec.

I heard the same thing, along with the class last month where only one guy showed up.

CFI's make more than 1st year regional FO's

 

[time builder]

An RJ does not have a lower BE load <I>factor</I>, just a lower number of total passengers required in order to BE on a route. The percentage is significantly higher than for mainline equipment.

Not to be a jerk, just correcting semantics.

No offense taken. If you have more up to date info than I'm using, I'd like to see it.

The last stats I saw were about a year ago, and the regionals had a lower break even load factor. But, again, as fuel prices increase, I think it will sway in favor of major airliners where a single 137 seat 737 can burn less fuel than 2 50 seat RJ's.

 

[pilotyip]

$34K/yr to $38K/yr first day of ground school at USA Jet, we are filling all of our classes.

 

[jeroom]

The shortage of pilots is going to get solved soon. As soon as the barrel of oil hits $110, they're gonna park half our RJ's, and they're you go, enough pilots.

 

[av8er2]

Pilots are finding better deals and leaving soon after finishing training. Mgt. of airlines are very stupid and it will take them a long time to figure out what is obvious to the average joe.