How Many Months Supply of Excess Pilots?

[DUATS]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

 

[pilotyip]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

and the solution is?

 

[ThisistheDream]

what happens when cabatoge starts in the US airline industry in the future?? when foreign airlines start flying from US city to US city, then there will be a move get more code shares and out source more flying jobs to prevent the shortage of pilots?

 

[dooork]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

What a bunch of BS. Try management. Southwest has cheap tickets and good pay..... o yeah and they are profitable

 

[Lear70]

You won't get through those 10,000 pilots during this hiring up-turn.

Then, by the next up-turn, they'll have been replaced with a bunch more RJ guys and gals.

So yeah, on the low end of the spectrum? Foggy mirror test. Majors and LCC? Will always have high-time quality applicants to choose from. Just the reality we live in.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Cabotoge and foreign pilots flying US PAX.

Do you know what the hiring situation is now like for the foreign carriers that are expanding? They are hiring US pilots like CRAZY, and they are way behind the power curve.

Airlines like Lufthansa and BA are static. They don't have the new planes or pilots to expand into the US, even if they wanted to. Plus, their Terms and Conditions for their pilots are MUCH higher than US T&C. If they wanted to compete here, they would have to hire US pilots, as their pilots would want too much money.

The expanding airlines, like EK, are ALREADY hiring LOTS of US pilots. To expand more here, they'd have to hire even more. And, I'm not sure if they could be competitive either, as their T&Cs are higher than US T&Cs.

If airlines like USAir/CAL/UAL/AA started first yea pay at about $85/hour, then maybe cabotoge in the US would be economically viable, but they would still need US pilots to do it!

MANY, MANY US pilots have no idea what the worldwide aviation industry is like. The US (and sort of Canada) is very unique, and the ONLY plass with lots of excess pilots, and the numbers in the US are going down, down, and down. Maybe some country like Australia can pick up the slack? I read that in 2008, Australlia awarded 20 new ATPs. That number IS correct....20.....

cliff
LFW

 

[Dornier 335]

Hi!

Airlines like Lufthansa and BA are static. They don't have the new planes or pilots to expand into the US, even if they wanted to. Plus, their Terms and Conditions for their pilots are MUCH higher than US T&C. If they wanted to compete here, they would have to hire US pilots, as their pilots would want too much money.

[...]

MANY, MANY US pilots have no idea what the worldwide aviation industry is like.

Plus, the European legacy carriers have Ryanair, EasyJet and AirBerlin to worry about. Just check the pay rates at the those low-cost carriers! I hate to say it, but the big bucks @ the US carriers are gone. Cabotage from Central or South America could be a problem though.

Cliff, when did you fly @ TSA and where were you based? I wonder if we crossed paths...

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Cabotage from Central or South America could be a problem though.

Yeah, flown by cheap labor pilots from the US since they are applying by the truck load to places like LAN, COPA and wherever they can get DEC positions for $5000 dollars a month

 

[Dornier 335]

With all that eye candy around it might be well worth it. Latest I heard from COPA is that they prefer Latin American pilots (including Mexico) over US pilots.

 

[waveflyer]

I think we've just lost our way- so many of us were sold out and willing to fly for less to get to the majors- even as the opportunities to do so fell away- most of us through lack of leverage in the RLA and a NMB that was willing to delay and in some cases outright break the law- are flying under a market wage. We do it only bc we have so much invested in it and retain the hope that things will get better.

One point- i know that most of us are staunch conservatives- We saw a good example of how to work politically- The NRA is NOT a liberal agenda- and yet still found a way to get support from Democrats. Our union is not on the republican agenda - we need to start lobbying harder for their support- at least get them to be neutral and not always siding with the ATA- it's a competition between us and the ATA and we need to start viewing it that way. We ARE different from unskilled labor unions- we are leaders and generally carry influence in our communities- we need to sell ourselves to republican leadership- they can support us and keep their pro-business and meritocracy agenda intact.
We need to get to a point where neither party interferes with our freedom to negotiate.

Then maybe that hope that things will get better will be merited.

 

[Dornier 335]

Yeah, flown by cheap labor pilots from the US since they are applying by the truck load to places like LAN, COPA and wherever they can get DEC positions for $5000 dollars a month

BUT if you get your 500 hrs B737 or A320 PIC and if you are open to the world you can land yourself some pretty well-paid gigs on this planet. Especially like me who's stuck on the 145 which ain't good for anything. COPA, LAN etc. is like working in paradise for first year f/o pay and be surrounded by Latin babes (if that's your weakness).

 

[Lear70]

BUT if you get your 500 hrs B737 or A320 PIC and if you are open to the world you can land yourself some pretty well-paid gigs on this planet. Especially like me who's stuck on the 145 which ain't good for anything. COPA, LAN etc. is like working in paradise for first year f/o pay and be surrounded by Latin babes (if that's your weakness).

No, mine is near-anorexic blondes... (I call 'em "spinners") like the one in your avatar.

And yes, the airlines south of the border are primarily hiring Latin American pilots, absolutely MUST speak Spanish fluently, etc, etc... and they're getting them... for now.

As far as pilots flying for peanuts, that's an old, old argument, and the cat is definitely out of the bag on that one. Cabotage is a real issue, but in actuality, the Ryanair / slEasyjet wages are higher than many of our LCC wages in the U.S. 1st year guys are making about $65-70k over there (about EU$40k). With the Euro coming down in value, it's a little less equivalent in USD than it used to be, but it's still a lot better than most of the U.S. LCC's...

It's a very complicated puzzle... but I do expect wages at the Regionals and Charter jobs, as well as the international expat gigs, to improve with the coming crunch they'll feel from the "highly" qualified people going back to the Majors (recalls) or getting hired back in the U.S.

Long term? Anyone's guess...

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Jun/Jul/Aug/Sep 2001 on the J-41. Sim check was 09/12/2001, so not there for long! Some of the guys in my class came back and were there for a while!

cliff
LFW

 

[DUATS]

What a bunch of BS. Try management. Southwest has cheap tickets and good pay..... o yeah and they are profitable

Just looked at the favorite LAX-LGA for July 12-16, a random week for a business traveler. Southwest is $538. Next highest is Airtran at $458. USAir is $369. All the rest are between $399 and $408. I rarely fly Southwest, because I find their low fares to be largely a myth (and I really like assigned seats).

A contributor on airliners.net wrote,
"SFO-JFK in the late 70's was $294F/$245Y one-way, with excursion fares ranging from $245 to $343 round-trip. Fares changed so infrequently, the airlines could print them in their timetables, and they'd be accurate."

Using the Inflation Calculator, that $343 in 1979 would be $1000.50 today. Even at the low range, $245 would be $715. If the airlines could average a grand round trip east coast to west, they would have plenty of money to pay us pilots!

 

[waveflyer]

That's such crap-
what ? You want pilots to set ticket prices now?
Get real and stop the mental masturbation- fuel prices tripled and airlines paid them-
get involved in your union and support politicians that support us- and we'll see gains back. You're the only ones who will advocate for you. And we all need to do a better job of it.

Think: what motivation does mgmt have to run a profitable airline- they've worked out pay packages where they get paid a kings ransom either way- all profits do is make us want to get paid more... And the rampers and the agents etc etc

this industry has gotten together at their ranch and decided to sacrifice itself- when people travel cheap it stimulates the economy- and bk has allowed the airlines to shed billions in labor costs with no penalty. Why would they change this scenario?

It's up to us to get in the game and make our gains back