How Many Months Supply of Excess Pilots?

[DUATS]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

 

[pilotyip]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

and the solution is?

 

[ThisistheDream]

what happens when cabatoge starts in the US airline industry in the future?? when foreign airlines start flying from US city to US city, then there will be a move get more code shares and out source more flying jobs to prevent the shortage of pilots?

 

[dooork]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

What a bunch of BS. Try management. Southwest has cheap tickets and good pay..... o yeah and they are profitable

 

[Lear70]

You won't get through those 10,000 pilots during this hiring up-turn.

Then, by the next up-turn, they'll have been replaced with a bunch more RJ guys and gals.

So yeah, on the low end of the spectrum? Foggy mirror test. Majors and LCC? Will always have high-time quality applicants to choose from. Just the reality we live in.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Cabotoge and foreign pilots flying US PAX.

Do you know what the hiring situation is now like for the foreign carriers that are expanding? They are hiring US pilots like CRAZY, and they are way behind the power curve.

Airlines like Lufthansa and BA are static. They don't have the new planes or pilots to expand into the US, even if they wanted to. Plus, their Terms and Conditions for their pilots are MUCH higher than US T&C. If they wanted to compete here, they would have to hire US pilots, as their pilots would want too much money.

The expanding airlines, like EK, are ALREADY hiring LOTS of US pilots. To expand more here, they'd have to hire even more. And, I'm not sure if they could be competitive either, as their T&Cs are higher than US T&Cs.

If airlines like USAir/CAL/UAL/AA started first yea pay at about $85/hour, then maybe cabotoge in the US would be economically viable, but they would still need US pilots to do it!

MANY, MANY US pilots have no idea what the worldwide aviation industry is like. The US (and sort of Canada) is very unique, and the ONLY plass with lots of excess pilots, and the numbers in the US are going down, down, and down. Maybe some country like Australia can pick up the slack? I read that in 2008, Australlia awarded 20 new ATPs. That number IS correct....20.....

cliff
LFW

 

[Dornier 335]

Hi!

Airlines like Lufthansa and BA are static. They don't have the new planes or pilots to expand into the US, even if they wanted to. Plus, their Terms and Conditions for their pilots are MUCH higher than US T&C. If they wanted to compete here, they would have to hire US pilots, as their pilots would want too much money.

[...]

MANY, MANY US pilots have no idea what the worldwide aviation industry is like.

Plus, the European legacy carriers have Ryanair, EasyJet and AirBerlin to worry about. Just check the pay rates at the those low-cost carriers! I hate to say it, but the big bucks @ the US carriers are gone. Cabotage from Central or South America could be a problem though.

Cliff, when did you fly @ TSA and where were you based? I wonder if we crossed paths...

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Cabotage from Central or South America could be a problem though.

Yeah, flown by cheap labor pilots from the US since they are applying by the truck load to places like LAN, COPA and wherever they can get DEC positions for $5000 dollars a month

 

[Dornier 335]

With all that eye candy around it might be well worth it. Latest I heard from COPA is that they prefer Latin American pilots (including Mexico) over US pilots.

 

[waveflyer]

I think we've just lost our way- so many of us were sold out and willing to fly for less to get to the majors- even as the opportunities to do so fell away- most of us through lack of leverage in the RLA and a NMB that was willing to delay and in some cases outright break the law- are flying under a market wage. We do it only bc we have so much invested in it and retain the hope that things will get better.

One point- i know that most of us are staunch conservatives- We saw a good example of how to work politically- The NRA is NOT a liberal agenda- and yet still found a way to get support from Democrats. Our union is not on the republican agenda - we need to start lobbying harder for their support- at least get them to be neutral and not always siding with the ATA- it's a competition between us and the ATA and we need to start viewing it that way. We ARE different from unskilled labor unions- we are leaders and generally carry influence in our communities- we need to sell ourselves to republican leadership- they can support us and keep their pro-business and meritocracy agenda intact.
We need to get to a point where neither party interferes with our freedom to negotiate.

Then maybe that hope that things will get better will be merited.