How many Delta Pilots thinking of leaving?

[eatme]

What DOH takes you back to the bottom 1500 guys and gals on the seniority list?

 

[AlbieF15]

Some recent phone calls or other data points have come from:

NWA pilot still on line wanting FDX...

NWA guy wanting to bail to SWA...

UAL guy working panel w/me last week had 9 years at UAL....

DAL retiree (no $@*&!) wanting to try again at another LCC...

Contemporary of mine at DAL recently mentioned "considering" leaving and starting over if FDX would hire him...

Several former AA guys I've worked with on the line...one had over 10 years.

To date I've helped guys from AA, UAL, DAL, and NW get ready for interviews at other places. So...yes....SOME guys are running for the exits. Its a d@mn tough industry. Keep you logbooks up to date, be nice to everyone, and have a plan B or plan C just in case. I wouldn't wish starting over on anyone, but its a sad fact of life at the moment. If their is a silver lining, it is that is someone trashes your retirement plan the incentive to stay in a place you don't enjoy is certainly a lot smaller, and with that devasting financial blow comes the freedom to say "screw it" and go ahead and try again somewhere else. I wish all of you in that boat the very best of luck...

 

[General Lee]

Mark me down as actively searching. Not that I want to leave, mind you. I just don't want to find myself furloughed again with no place to land.

And for those of you wondering about my background, I was hired by Delta in 2000 complete with the "welcome to the last job you'll ever have" speech. I spent 2.5 years on furlough and was recalled about 1 year ago.

And yes, while on the street I tried to reinvent myself outside of aviaiton. Try as I might, I could not convince myself to learn to love a desk. Indeed, I am a hard core, repeat offender and blame the airplane sickness on my parents (I am a 3rd generation aviatior with twisted DNA).

Most everyone in the bottom 1500 of the seniority list (not including the 475 actively furloughed) are in peril. I don't know how many are looking for a new line of work, but I can personally verify that recently there have been pilots with more than 7 years on the property who have quit and started over at Brand X.

For what it is worth, I believe there is a place for everyone in commercial aviation. As such, I would caution everyone to be nice to their first officer as they might one day swing gear for him at their next company.

Where do you come up with the 1500 number? Do you see a lot of lessors giving up our old airplanes? I don't. As long as we don't give up any airplanes that we don't THINK will leave, there might not be any furloughs. We just lost 2500 captains. We are shrinking domestic, but adding more to INTL. You need to show me where you think the reductions will come from. It would take YEARS for DCI or anyone else to get 200 79 seat jets. YEARS. Tell me where you are coming from please. The stews were told about 2500 might lose their jobs if nobody retires or leaves. We will park 75-80 old planes (732s, 733s, 73Gs, 762s), so some will have to go. How many are on each plane during each flight? 4-6 or so. Well, none have retired, and some planes will be parked. We lost 2500 captains in 16 months. Tell me how you got 1500 possible new furloughs, and the stews have 2500 without any leaving prior? The numbers do not add up. There would be three times that number of stews getting furloughed if they planned to park more planes. Three times. Yes, we are giving up some things probably efficiency wise in this upcoming agreement (if there is one)--like less vacation. Luckily, most of the guys still left after the top 2500 left never got more than 4 weeks vacation already, and it will be capped at that. There will be the 198 PRPs that will eventually leave. There are two large bids coming up, with some displacements in NYC and CVG, but lots of upward movement in the INTL area, including a 25% increase in the ER flying in NYC. The new ATL-TLV run on the 777 will create many new 777 pilots (1 captain, 3 FOs on that very long flight). A lot of your guessing has to do with what airplanes MAY GO if the lessors want to take them. High oil prices will prevent most of that.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

We will park 75-80 old planes (732s, 733s, 73Gs, 762s), so some will have to go ... We just lost 2500 captains ...There will be the 198 PRPs that will eventually leave ... There are two large bids coming up, with some displacements in NYC and CVG, but lots of upward movement in the INTL area, including a 25% increase in the ER flying in NYC. The new ATL-TLV run on the 777 will create many new 777 pilots (1 captain, 3 FOs on that very long flight).

Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

I respectfully disagree. I believe productivity increases accounted for some of the 2500 Captains who left. The schedule is getting flown as is and the company is happy to abuse guys on reserve. I work with quite a few Delta guys and I get the low down on what is happening to the bottom 20%. Is the company telling you it needs to lighten up on flying the reserves?

More productivity increases will make it hard to bring anyone back for the 198 PRPs.

Oh yeah, the biggest reason for no more recalls anytime soon is regardless of how much international increases mainline is shrinking by 75 planes. Even with the 10 or 20 more 777 pilots in the next bid.


IMHO (I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night)--

198 PRP's leaving + 75 planes getting parked = NEW furloughes.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

On the flip side--

If enough Delta pilots leave for Airtran, FedEx, law school, military leave, JetBlue, etc. then you will get some recalls.

My guess-- few of the 750 pilots displaced by parking airplanes will go out and find other jobs before they are furloughed. Some will want to keep their recall rights.

 

[HalinTexas]

Or, be nice to your FE's because of the same reason, but at the same company. It's happening at ATA.

 

[Pat Fabin]

General,

You can't compare FA staffing with pilot staffing and come up with a meaningful correlation. The FAs are not regulated with regards to flight time limits nor do they have any contractually required staffing amounts.

Pre 911 we had about 20,000 FAs....now its about 13,000. Their new 'concession package' places a few reserve days on 75% of their schedules. (everyone with 20-25 years seniority and below) Basically when every 'line holder' has to sit a few days of reserve every month you don't need any reserves. Life is about to get much tougher for our hard-working FAs.

I hope there aren't any pilot furloughs either, but I'm not holding my breath....and I'd be one of them. I think I'm safe through the holidays but thats about it. I appreciate your continued furloughee support but I think your mathmatics are wishful thinking. You also assume these guys (mgmt) actually has a plan to run this airline.

On the micro level, we have an airplane that stops flying in mid november (73G) and they still don't have a bid out (read: plan) to handle those pilots.

I've moved from 'cautiously optimistic' to just 'cautious'.

-PF

 

[General Lee]

General,

I respectfully disagree. I believe productivity increases accounted for some of the 2500 Captains who left. The schedule is getting flown as is and the company is happy to abuse guys on reserve. I work with quite a few Delta guys and I get the low down on what is happening to the bottom 20%. Is the company telling you it needs to lighten up on flying the reserves?

More productivity increases will make it hard to bring anyone back for the 198 PRPs.

Oh yeah, the biggest reason for no more recalls anytime soon is regardless of how much international increases mainline is shrinking by 75 planes. Even with the 10 or 20 more 777 pilots in the next bid.


IMHO (I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night)--

198 PRP's leaving + 75 planes getting parked = NEW furloughes.

Do you work for Delta? Oh, your friends do. Those planes that will be parked (the scheduled ones) have been accounted for. As far as the productivity advancements, the PBS will take care of the extra open time. PBS will create more lines with any time that is currently being snatched up for greenslips. Also, it will now not award you greenslip pay until after you hit a higher number of hours, like after 85 hours of flying, which will make it tougher and more people will likely not want to participate due to sheer exhaustion. Those productivity enhancements were also hashed out during the last contract negotiations last December, and since that time another 1200 pilots retired early. The 75 planes getting parked was known and our VP of flight ops has not stated any furloughs as a result. And, when guys flying the largest airplanes leave, there is a ripple affect. Replacing one 777 Captain will create 10 movements up. We just lost 200 Captains on Sep 1st alone, and they have not been accounted for in the last bid. Then 11 more left on October 1st (after Chap 11). And you seem to be forgeting the large increase in INTL flying (not only TLV). Longer trips and three pilots at least required means more flying. They are removing 28 large aircraft from domestic and moving them to INTL. Ask your friends what that could do? I don't know if there will be any extra furloughs, but I was told that if the lessors don't take planes "WE DIDN'T THINK WOULD BE TAKEN" (which means they know about the 75 other planes) then there might not be any furloughs. You seem to guess otherwise. I guess we shall see.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

General,

You can't compare FA staffing with pilot staffing and come up with a meaningful correlation. The FAs are not regulated with regards to flight time limits nor do they have any contractually required staffing amounts.

Pre 911 we had about 20,000 FAs....now its about 13,000. Their new 'concession package' places a few reserve days on 75% of their schedules. (everyone with 20-25 years seniority and below) Basically when every 'line holder' has to sit a few days of reserve every month you don't need any reserves. Life is about to get much tougher for our hard-working FAs.

I hope there aren't any pilot furloughs either, but I'm not holding my breath....and I'd be one of them. I think I'm safe through the holidays but thats about it. I appreciate your continued furloughee support but I think your mathmatics are wishful thinking. You also assume these guys (mgmt) actually has a plan to run this airline.

On the micro level, we have an airplane that stops flying in mid november (73G) and they still don't have a bid out (read: plan) to handle those pilots.

I've moved from 'cautiously optimistic' to just 'cautious'.

-PF

Pat,

I know this is a scary time. There is a lot out there that is unknown. I don't have all of the answers, but I listen and ask questions. You think you may be ok until the holidays. Well, our flying increases after the holidays when Spring Break starts, and then really increases for the Summer. Look at all of the new INTL flights that will start next April and May (CPH, DUS, TLV). We just started ATL-RIO (GIG) a few days ago. That flight alone has a 30 hour layover in GIG (8am arrival and 10pm departure the next night). That requires 3 pilots. How many pilots would be required just to fly that route in one month? Now add CPH, DUS, TLV, and Kiev from JFK?

I know the NYC Shuttle 73G will be stopped on Nov 15th, and replaced with MD88s. That flying will be put into a bid late this month. They will have to bring up a lot of MD88 Reserve pilots from ATL (besides the normal MD88 crews in LGA) to fill in for the mean time. The Shuttle flying will not disappear, the 73Gs will. Operation Clockwork 2 added 9 extra planes to the fleet anyway, and those could result in extra MD88s for the Shuttle. The bid, the first of two, will also move the NYC 73N pilots around (moving the time to CVG) and move some CVG MD88 guys to NYC. And, the JFK 7ER flying will increase by 25%.

When you talk about the stews and their flying, it is different. Remember, they have no rules anymore. I flew with a senior one (they are all senior) the other day and she said she had 116 hours for September, and that was with 2 weeks off for vacation. We, on the other hand, actually have FAA rules that don't allow us to do that. That is good for you and me. If the stews had those rules, there would be 20,000 still. There are rules stating the minimum number required per aircraft (1 for 50 pax), and with the expanding INTL schedule more of them will be required to stay also.

A lot of this is speculation, and we do know that we really won't be getting rid of most of the planes until the END of 2006 (as stated in the original Chap 11 statement). Some will go sooner (73Gs, some 762s), but in the meantime we will learn more about how desperate the lessors are. High gas won't help their cause. Take care.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Mookie]

"stews"---how 80's...

Mookie