How many Bluedudes updating their apps

[Andy]

As long as we don't see another retirement age increase, there should be good movement at several airlines that have very senior pilots. I'd expect to see a lot of movement at:
Unical
USAirways
AMR starting in 2014 ... the BK cleared out most of 2012/3 age 65ers.
Delta less so until 2017ish - Delta's BK cleared out a ton of their 50+ pilots. That's somewhat offset by NWA's pilots who had a bunch of retirements in the pipeline.
FedEx may have a bunch approaching 65 also; I haven't looked at their numbers.


In all, I think we're looking at an environment that will be more favorable for pilot hiring than 1998-2000 because there are so few 'new' pilots in the system. The military training pipeline has been significantly reduced post-911 and the civilian training pipeline has been almost nonexistant post-911.
When it looked like things were finally going to start recovering, ALPO, AARP, and friends ramrodded age 65 through Congress. That single greedy act exacerbated the bathtub that was created in pilot production due to 911.

I would advise everyone to be cautious of those gummers who try to calm your concerns about future retirement age changes by saying that they're not in favor of raising the retirement age beyond 65. Those are the same people who said that they just wanted to get to 62 and then they'd retire ... yet they're still working at 64. They're lying to you once again. They'll try to ramrod through 67/70/no age limit. And this time around, the airlines will be all in favor of increasing retirement ages because they've seen how much money they've saved in training costs. Besides the airlines, AARP will be all in favor of increasing retirement age. And I don't trust ALPO so they'll probably push for higher retirement ages behind the scenes, just as they did with 65 ... think about the age of the people in Herndon.

 

[fam62c]

As long as we don't see another retirement age increase, there should be good movement at several airlines that have very senior pilots. I'd expect to see a lot of movement at:
Unical
USAirways
AMR starting in 2014 ... the BK cleared out most of 2012/3 age 65ers.
Delta less so until 2017ish - Delta's BK cleared out a ton of their 50+ pilots. That's somewhat offset by NWA's pilots who had a bunch of retirements in the pipeline.
FedEx may have a bunch approaching 65 also; I haven't looked at their numbers.


In all, I think we're looking at an environment that will be more favorable for pilot hiring than 1998-2000 because there are so few 'new' pilots in the system. The military training pipeline has been significantly reduced post-911 and the civilian training pipeline has been almost nonexistant post-911.
When it looked like things were finally going to start recovering, ALPO, AARP, and friends ramrodded age 65 through Congress. That single greedy act exacerbated the bathtub that was created in pilot production due to 911.

I would advise everyone to be cautious of those gummers who try to calm your concerns about future retirement age changes by saying that they're not in favor of raising the retirement age beyond 65. Those are the same people who said that they just wanted to get to 62 and then they'd retire ... yet they're still working at 64. They're lying to you once again. They'll try to ramrod through 67/70/no age limit. And this time around, the airlines will be all in favor of increasing retirement ages because they've seen how much money they've saved in training costs. Besides the airlines, AARP will be all in favor of increasing retirement age. And I don't trust ALPO so they'll probably push for higher retirement ages behind the scenes, just as they did with 65 ... think about the age of the people in Herndon.

Andy, I'm not in favor of an increase in the retirement age but I think in the not too distant future you will see a push for it by airlines and governments worldwide simply because they will not be able to find enough pilots 5-10 years from now with the forecast retirement rates at age 65. They will have few options and retaining older pilots longer will be the easiest stop-gap measure in their eyes. ALPA won't have anything to do with it, you are vastly overestimating the power that unions have today. Government and industry have the power and they will get what they want.

I think that an increase in the retirement age is inevitable at some point like it or not. I also think that the recent changes in the law to require new Part 121 pilots to have more experience will be reversed, again, simply because the industry will need more pilots than there will be available. The job of the industry is to make money and the job of the government is to make sure the traveling public has sufficient, affordable air service. If age 65 gets in the way of these goals the retirement age will be increased. Nobody of any importance cares if some younger airline pilots have slower career progression, this is just the way the world works.

 

[whymeworry?]

There's a rumor on our CAL board that 67 is coming this year. One guy said the IAH CP stated 12-12-12 is the date of the change and that it's being quietly done.

The only bright spot there may be that this particular CP is wrong most of the time.

 

[canyonblue]

I might be in the minority of pilots, but who cares about what you fly, where you fly it to, and how many stripes you have? I enjoy going to work, but I like comming home much more. The only people that think huge airplanes that fly to Paris are cool are 10 yr old boys. 10 yr old boys also still like clowns and think girls are gross! What does that say?

You're not the minority, it's the maturity. The main focus of a persons life as they age, advances toward quality time with your family. Following along the lines of Maslow's Physiological, Safety, Belongingness and Love, Esteem, and Self-Actualization pyramid, I find that "Family" would fall ahead of "a big airplane to fly". But then again, he studied the healthiest 1% of the college student population. That would eliminate the "10 year old boys".