How many Bluedudes updating their apps

[Dizel8]

A better question would be, how many DAL, HAL, Unical, ALK, FDX, SWA, AAA, AWA, AA and UPS pilots are updating their resume to go to Bigblue?

I would think none!

 

[Skyboy722]

This Southwest guy expects quite a lot of guys to leave. Sadly, I'm really not sure I can blame them.

Last week I needed to see the chief but he was busy doing an exit interview. So it's already happening.

 

[fam62c]

This Southwest guy expects quite a lot of guys to leave. Sadly, I'm really not sure I can blame them.

Last week I needed to see the chief but he was busy doing an exit interview. So it's already happening.

I would think that the guys most likely to leave will be the younger AT pilots if hiring starts before they cross the fence to SW. For the people already at SW it would be hard to leave the money and start over again unless you are pretty young. If you are under 35, maybe even 40 and fairly new at SW it might make sense to leave once legacy hiring gets in high gear but if you are in a base you like, have decent control over your schedule and are making good money it's hard to start over.

Five years from now I think SW will have a tougher time recruiting and retaining the most qualified pilots. Once the pay at the legacy carriers starts to catch up (like we just saw at DAL) SW won't have much going for it that would attract younger pilots because the seniority list will be so stagnant and there is only one position......737 FO. In the 1990's when things were still good and there was a lot of hiring SW wasn't the first choice for most pilots and growth was the attraction for the ones who wanted to work there. When everything blew up SW was in the best position to weather the storm and they ended up at the top of the heap but it probably won't be like that forever.

SW is still an excellent company that pays very well and they have a nice selection of bases (maybe their one real recruiting advantage going forward if they can keep adding more of them to give pilots many options to live in base) but without the career progression they will never be as attractive as they once were unless something really changes with the business plan. For now though SW is past it's peak as a career destination for new hires.

 

[Whataburger]

I think when it comes to SWA guys leaving, the number will be very small. A 3yr guy here will take a $60,000/yr pay cut to go to DAL. Explain that to Momma! I fail to see the importance of the fourth strip when a pilot in the right seat here can make more than most captains at other airlines and have more days off doing it. The most days a new pilot here can be scheduled for on RES is 15. So leave SWA for a paycut and less days off?

I might be in the minority of pilots, but who cares about what you fly, where you fly it to, and how many stripes you have? I enjoy going to work, but I like comming home much more. The only people that think huge airplanes that fly to Paris are cool are 10 yr old boys. 10 yr old boys also still like clowns and think girls are gross! What does that say?

When there have been over 300 airline bankruptcies since deregulation, why leave the ONLY US carrier that has been sucessful in navigating the crazy waters of the last few decades? Do you want "Job Coolness" in big sexxxxxy jets, or "Job Security?" Try stroking a check backed by "job coolness." It's tough to send your kids to college or pay a house payment on "job coolness," especially when you take another pay cut or your get a WARN notice.

The days of SWA in "Nuts" are LOOOOOONG gone. Now it is a more Legacy-ee airline. Lots of employees, more middle managers, and more disgruntled employees. However, after having quite a few of AA and DAL Senior dudes on my jumpseat recently - A good day at AA and DAL is still worse than my worst day at SWA.

Many of us still truely enjoy our airline, but it's like a family member: We will bitch about it, but when a non-family member bashes it we get protective.

Make a pro/con list of leaving your current pasture for greener ones. If you have more check markes in "go" then go. If you have more marks in "stay" then stay.

I am now back to the 'Meter.

 

[redflyer65]

That's pretty much my sentiment as well Whatburger. Especially the part about making as much in the right seat than at most other carriers. Add in the flexibility with the ability to pickup or drop as much as you want and it would be tough to start over.

I do agree, I see any that leave will be the very, very bottom. It will happen, most likely very low numbers.

 

[Whine Lover]

" Can a family of four survive on first year Delta pay?!"



> " Average annual income in United States is around 47,000 USD, according to 2011/2012 salary survey. Statistics shows that 50 percent of population live on $46,000 or less a year. "


> " An entry level pilot will be paid at the monthly rate of:

1. $3,377.96 effective July 1, 2012.

After OE you're on a first year rate of $61/hr. RSV guarantee is now 72-80. You may break that in the busy summer months if you make yourself available."


With 4 months of Training pay/OE @$3378/mo + 8 months of gaurantee @ $61x72 you will clear $48,648 for year one. MINIMUM.

You should be JUST FINE, if they hire you...

If, after 7 years of sandbox pay and the above first year pay you can't seem to make ends meet...Umm, well, there's not much left to say.

Is there?




YKW

 

[scoreboardII]

That's pretty much my sentiment as well Whatburger. Especially the part about making as much in the right seat than at most other carriers. Add in the flexibility with the ability to pickup or drop as much as you want and it would be tough to start over.

I do agree, I see any that leave will be the very, very bottom. It will happen, most likely very low numbers.

Until the inevitable shift of good flying away from the junior as they are forced into Redeye's and internationals worst schedules, then you will see hundreds of not a thousand head for the door.

Imagine you are the DAL human resource director and have the opportunity to score hundreds of SWA ship jumpers, that is a human resource wet dream, take away the competitors number one selling point, it's people.

 

[redflyer65]

You make valid points Score.

But what kind of flying would you be doing on the bottom of a Delta list? They do alot of redeyes and will be doing multiple legs in the DC9/717. I've heard the DL scheduling on those AC is much different than the old NW.

It's funny that General touts our 'eight' leg a days, but the reality may have already shifted to SW doing less flights per day (from a pilot prospective), and DL cranking out more legs than SW with their narrow body planes. Interesting times. In the end, it will just be a personal choice for each individual and a review of what works for your family. As it should be.

 

[xjt40]

A better question would be, how many DAL, HAL, Unical, ALK, FDX, SWA, AAA, AWA, AA and UPS pilots are updating their resume to go to Bigblue?

I would think none!

A better guess would be NONEWHATSOEVER.

 

[Mamma]

CP said Alaska is hiring 6-8 every two week. Up to 120 total next year.

 

[Andy]

As long as we don't see another retirement age increase, there should be good movement at several airlines that have very senior pilots. I'd expect to see a lot of movement at:
Unical
USAirways
AMR starting in 2014 ... the BK cleared out most of 2012/3 age 65ers.
Delta less so until 2017ish - Delta's BK cleared out a ton of their 50+ pilots. That's somewhat offset by NWA's pilots who had a bunch of retirements in the pipeline.
FedEx may have a bunch approaching 65 also; I haven't looked at their numbers.


In all, I think we're looking at an environment that will be more favorable for pilot hiring than 1998-2000 because there are so few 'new' pilots in the system. The military training pipeline has been significantly reduced post-911 and the civilian training pipeline has been almost nonexistant post-911.
When it looked like things were finally going to start recovering, ALPO, AARP, and friends ramrodded age 65 through Congress. That single greedy act exacerbated the bathtub that was created in pilot production due to 911.

I would advise everyone to be cautious of those gummers who try to calm your concerns about future retirement age changes by saying that they're not in favor of raising the retirement age beyond 65. Those are the same people who said that they just wanted to get to 62 and then they'd retire ... yet they're still working at 64. They're lying to you once again. They'll try to ramrod through 67/70/no age limit. And this time around, the airlines will be all in favor of increasing retirement ages because they've seen how much money they've saved in training costs. Besides the airlines, AARP will be all in favor of increasing retirement age. And I don't trust ALPO so they'll probably push for higher retirement ages behind the scenes, just as they did with 65 ... think about the age of the people in Herndon.

 

[fam62c]

As long as we don't see another retirement age increase, there should be good movement at several airlines that have very senior pilots. I'd expect to see a lot of movement at:
Unical
USAirways
AMR starting in 2014 ... the BK cleared out most of 2012/3 age 65ers.
Delta less so until 2017ish - Delta's BK cleared out a ton of their 50+ pilots. That's somewhat offset by NWA's pilots who had a bunch of retirements in the pipeline.
FedEx may have a bunch approaching 65 also; I haven't looked at their numbers.


In all, I think we're looking at an environment that will be more favorable for pilot hiring than 1998-2000 because there are so few 'new' pilots in the system. The military training pipeline has been significantly reduced post-911 and the civilian training pipeline has been almost nonexistant post-911.
When it looked like things were finally going to start recovering, ALPO, AARP, and friends ramrodded age 65 through Congress. That single greedy act exacerbated the bathtub that was created in pilot production due to 911.

I would advise everyone to be cautious of those gummers who try to calm your concerns about future retirement age changes by saying that they're not in favor of raising the retirement age beyond 65. Those are the same people who said that they just wanted to get to 62 and then they'd retire ... yet they're still working at 64. They're lying to you once again. They'll try to ramrod through 67/70/no age limit. And this time around, the airlines will be all in favor of increasing retirement ages because they've seen how much money they've saved in training costs. Besides the airlines, AARP will be all in favor of increasing retirement age. And I don't trust ALPO so they'll probably push for higher retirement ages behind the scenes, just as they did with 65 ... think about the age of the people in Herndon.

Andy, I'm not in favor of an increase in the retirement age but I think in the not too distant future you will see a push for it by airlines and governments worldwide simply because they will not be able to find enough pilots 5-10 years from now with the forecast retirement rates at age 65. They will have few options and retaining older pilots longer will be the easiest stop-gap measure in their eyes. ALPA won't have anything to do with it, you are vastly overestimating the power that unions have today. Government and industry have the power and they will get what they want.

I think that an increase in the retirement age is inevitable at some point like it or not. I also think that the recent changes in the law to require new Part 121 pilots to have more experience will be reversed, again, simply because the industry will need more pilots than there will be available. The job of the industry is to make money and the job of the government is to make sure the traveling public has sufficient, affordable air service. If age 65 gets in the way of these goals the retirement age will be increased. Nobody of any importance cares if some younger airline pilots have slower career progression, this is just the way the world works.

 

[whymeworry?]

There's a rumor on our CAL board that 67 is coming this year. One guy said the IAH CP stated 12-12-12 is the date of the change and that it's being quietly done.

The only bright spot there may be that this particular CP is wrong most of the time.

 

[canyonblue]

I might be in the minority of pilots, but who cares about what you fly, where you fly it to, and how many stripes you have? I enjoy going to work, but I like comming home much more. The only people that think huge airplanes that fly to Paris are cool are 10 yr old boys. 10 yr old boys also still like clowns and think girls are gross! What does that say?

You're not the minority, it's the maturity. The main focus of a persons life as they age, advances toward quality time with your family. Following along the lines of Maslow's Physiological, Safety, Belongingness and Love, Esteem, and Self-Actualization pyramid, I find that "Family" would fall ahead of "a big airplane to fly". But then again, he studied the healthiest 1% of the college student population. That would eliminate the "10 year old boys".