How big will NJ get?

[Guitar Guy]

So how does NJ decide how many aircraft to order? Do they have buyers before they order the new aircraft, or do they order based on speculation?

With the long lead time between orders and deliveries, I'm pretty sure the company has to order first based off of what they project to be demand. I do know that they talk with owners and potential owners about the sort of mission profiles they intend to fly so that the company can get a good mix of aircraft types.

We actually have had situations in some fleets where Marquis card buyers can't get into a certain aircraft beacuse there is such a demand among owners. This happened with the XL around 2004-5, for example.

 

[gutshotdraw]

They've been saying for years that they want 5000 pilot's on the seniority list. FWIW, we currently have about 2600-2700.

I would plan on a 5 year upgrade at LEAST.

Fisch,

The VSL has over 3000 names on it :crying:

 

[fischman]

Fisch,

The VSL has over 3000 names on it :crying:

I have no idea if NJI was considered in those numbers. We are glad to have you guys with us man. The future is getting brighter for all of us!

 

[fischman]

Thanx Robbo. After reading the article it was a small mistake in a long diatribe.
Fisch- In your tag line , it would be better to quote the Rhodes scholar and husband to the smartest woman in the world: "it depends what your definition of is is..."
cheers-rum

I'm not going to turn this thread political.

You know my opinion of the current president.uke:

 

[jonjuan]

With the long lead time between orders and deliveries, I'm pretty sure the company has to order first based off of what they project to be demand. I do know that they talk with owners and potential owners about the sort of mission profiles they intend to fly so that the company can get a good mix of aircraft types.

Much of the back-log demand is "artificial" as netjets hasn't delivered a single new Citation X in over 2 years. This is due to very little demand. If there was demand, Cessna would have delivered the planes. Also, only 4 F2000EXs have been brought to property in the past 2 years. This again has to do with owner demand. Sounds as though management "might" be bending the truth about order and delivery lead times. Of course the koolaid drinkers will dispute this.

 

[Guitar Guy]

Much of the back-log demand is "artificial" as netjets hasn't delivered a single new Citation X in over 2 years. This is due to very little demand. If there was demand, Cessna would have delivered the planes. Also, only 4 F2000EXs have been brought to property in the past 2 years. This again has to do with owner demand. Sounds as though management "might" be bending the truth about order and delivery lead times. Of course the koolaid drinkers will dispute this.

I'm not a "koolaid" drinker though I will dispute some of your assertions. The reason that we don't have more of the long-range Falcon 2000's is not lack of demand, rather it's lack of range. Those planes fell short of the performance guarantees. If you research it, you'll find that Dassault is certifying winglets to gain back the range shortfall. If/when those winglets are certified and the performance is verified, NetJets will resume deliveries of what will be called the 2000LX.

As for your assumption about lack of demand, that's not supported by the delivery schedule. Between Oct 2007 and Oct 2008, we are expecting a NET INCREASE of 50 airplanes. Sounds like the demand is there after all.

Those are facts and not "koolaid".

 

[gutshotdraw]

And how many FLOPS owners will FINALLY pull the plug on that lame outfit this holiday season and come over to NJ? I'm guessing at least enough to sell 10-20 airplanes.

 

[Guitar Guy]

And how many FLOPS owners will FINALLY pull the plug on that lame outfit this holiday season and come over to NJ? I'm guessing at least enough to sell 10-20 airplanes.

Be careful there, gutshotdraw, you don't want to be labeled as one of those "koolaid drinkers"...

 

[Jafo73]

Be careful there, gutshotdraw, you don't want to be labeled as one of those "koolaid drinkers"...

Yeah, I guess we also drink the koolaid when we are told we have turned away owners because we don't have the lift to support them...

 

[Correcting]

If you Netjets guys want to get an idea of delivery schedules, go to CREWOPS and type "fleet plan" into the search bar. You can access a spreadsheet that shows forecast increase or decrease of the fleet size. Everything from the G-200 on down is still getting deliveries, even the Citation X. AS would be expected, the biggest growth will be in the smaller fleets, since there is a larger market for those.

If you look at the fleet plan document, you will see that EVERY fleet will be taking deliveries again in spring of 2008, except the BBJ and fleets that are being replaced (like the Ultra) or being added to with newer versions of the same plane (XL/XLS with the XLS+, Encore with the Encore+, 800XP with the 900XP, Falcon 2000 with the 2000EZ or LX or whatever it is).

The fleet size is forecast to grow from 432 aircraft at at the end of 2007 to 484 aircraft by the end of 2008. Say what you want about NJA's growth, but the facts are that we are still taking deliveries of a lot more planes than we are selling. The true facts are all right there for anyone at NJA (kool-aid drinker or not) to see in the fleet plan document. And that fleet plan document does NOT include the NJI Gulfstreams, EJM, or Netjets Europe.