How big will NJ get?

[Guitar Guy]

Much of the back-log demand is "artificial" as netjets hasn't delivered a single new Citation X in over 2 years. This is due to very little demand. If there was demand, Cessna would have delivered the planes. Also, only 4 F2000EXs have been brought to property in the past 2 years. This again has to do with owner demand. Sounds as though management "might" be bending the truth about order and delivery lead times. Of course the koolaid drinkers will dispute this.

I'm not a "koolaid" drinker though I will dispute some of your assertions. The reason that we don't have more of the long-range Falcon 2000's is not lack of demand, rather it's lack of range. Those planes fell short of the performance guarantees. If you research it, you'll find that Dassault is certifying winglets to gain back the range shortfall. If/when those winglets are certified and the performance is verified, NetJets will resume deliveries of what will be called the 2000LX.

As for your assumption about lack of demand, that's not supported by the delivery schedule. Between Oct 2007 and Oct 2008, we are expecting a NET INCREASE of 50 airplanes. Sounds like the demand is there after all.

Those are facts and not "koolaid".

 

[gutshotdraw]

And how many FLOPS owners will FINALLY pull the plug on that lame outfit this holiday season and come over to NJ? I'm guessing at least enough to sell 10-20 airplanes.

 

[Guitar Guy]

And how many FLOPS owners will FINALLY pull the plug on that lame outfit this holiday season and come over to NJ? I'm guessing at least enough to sell 10-20 airplanes.

Be careful there, gutshotdraw, you don't want to be labeled as one of those "koolaid drinkers"...

 

[Jafo73]

Be careful there, gutshotdraw, you don't want to be labeled as one of those "koolaid drinkers"...

Yeah, I guess we also drink the koolaid when we are told we have turned away owners because we don't have the lift to support them...

 

[Correcting]

If you Netjets guys want to get an idea of delivery schedules, go to CREWOPS and type "fleet plan" into the search bar. You can access a spreadsheet that shows forecast increase or decrease of the fleet size. Everything from the G-200 on down is still getting deliveries, even the Citation X. AS would be expected, the biggest growth will be in the smaller fleets, since there is a larger market for those.

If you look at the fleet plan document, you will see that EVERY fleet will be taking deliveries again in spring of 2008, except the BBJ and fleets that are being replaced (like the Ultra) or being added to with newer versions of the same plane (XL/XLS with the XLS+, Encore with the Encore+, 800XP with the 900XP, Falcon 2000 with the 2000EZ or LX or whatever it is).

The fleet size is forecast to grow from 432 aircraft at at the end of 2007 to 484 aircraft by the end of 2008. Say what you want about NJA's growth, but the facts are that we are still taking deliveries of a lot more planes than we are selling. The true facts are all right there for anyone at NJA (kool-aid drinker or not) to see in the fleet plan document. And that fleet plan document does NOT include the NJI Gulfstreams, EJM, or Netjets Europe.

 

[Jafo73]

The fleet size is forecast to grow from 432 aircraft at at the end of 2007 to 484 aircraft by the end of 2008. Say what you want about NJA's growth, but the facts are that we are still taking deliveries of a lot more planes than we are selling. The true facts are all right there for anyone at NJA (kool-aid drinker or not) to see in the fleet plan document. And that fleet plan document does NOT include the NJI Gulfstreams, EJM, or Netjets Europe.

ok, that shows growth, how do you KNOW they we are getting more then we are selling? How does that prove we don't have enough demand right now?

 

[Correcting]

Despite your ridiculously poor proofreading skills of your own post, I think I was able to interpret what you said.

At the end of the day, it's still a business, and NJA wouldn't be getting the airplane deliveries if they weren't sure the demand was there. I'm thinking at this point that Santulli and company have earned the benefit of the doubt in that regard.

 

[Jafo73]

sory i is just a por dum publik edukated pile-it and aint got thos fancie proof reedin' skills of a english major

 

[flyipilot]

ok, that shows growth, how do you KNOW they we are getting more then we are selling? How does that prove we don't have enough demand right now?

Maybe because 482 is a bigger number than 432?

 

[flyipilot]

I believe there is a video of RTS out there on youtube? websites? that has him at one of the hanger meetings about 6 months back. He stated that he wants to see NJ grow to 1000 airplanes and 5000 pilots. Then, they will stay at those levels. This way a waiting list may be the only way to get in. Creates a demand and an appeal according to him. Sorry, I do not have the time line or the date he said this but, I am sure other NJ guys out there heard this. If not, it was a great dream.

 

[Jafo73]

sorry, my previously mentioned terrible proofreading skills has caused some confusion. Someone said something about us not selling all the airplanes we have, my question is how would we know that? I was saying that we are growing, and why would RTS do that if he couldn't/hasn't sold those planes?

 

[flyipilot]

On that one I am not sure we would know. I know they re-sell planes and owners all the time. How they do it is not clear. I knwo they are always giving planes new registrations as they add and take off owners. It is most likely like leasing a car...what can the owner afford? what do they want out of the plane? etc... I am sure NJ has many sales packages. Growth can take many different forms but, I know that RTS would like to see this NJ as the largest, most saught after fractional in the world. They are already there in numbers but, with new entrants like XO Jet, NJ will have to make the services and extras better and better.

 

[xpdriver]

60 planes net in 2008

60 planes net in 2009

 

[Guitar Guy]

Yeah, I guess we also drink the koolaid when we are told we have turned away owners because we don't have the lift to support them...

Obviously!

So do you prefer grape, orange or lemon-lime koolaid?

 

[CA1900]

So do you prefer grape, orange or lemon-lime koolaid?

Lemon-lime? That's not Koolaid, GG.