HAWAIIAN Phase III invites

[Dan Roman]

All that said, I think our best defense against a merger would be the PSA AirCal argument. The service they provided all but disappeared because they were absorbed into legacies. No one would take lightly the economic impact to the state should Hawaiian disappear.
If another carrier made a run at Hawaiian you would be blown away by the opposition that would come out of it.

 

[jonjuan]

All that said, I think our best defense against a merger would be the PSA AirCal argument. The service they provided all but disappeared because they were absorbed into legacies. No one would take lightly the economic impact to the state should Hawaiian disappear.
If another carrier made a run at Hawaiian you would be blown away by the opposition that would come out of it.

Economic impact to the state? Are you for real? All the acquiring carrier would need to guarantee is no loss of jobs (for a period of time). Hawaii isn't a foreign country, by the way. Look what happened with the SWA/AT merger. I think most would relish more jobs coming in. It will all be good in the end. Besides, you'll be retired by the time it all shakes out in 2014.

 

[Dan Roman]

Economic impact to the state? Are you for real? All the acquiring carrier would need to guarantee is no loss of jobs (for a period of time). Hawaii isn't a foreign country, by the way. Look what happened with the SWA/AT merger. I think most would relish more jobs coming in. It will all be good in the end. Besides, you'll be retired by the time it all shakes out in 2014.

You are right about it wouldn't effect me, in fact, I guess I would just have better pass benefits as a retiree. It's not me I am concerned about (although not sure what orifice you pulled out me being retired in 2014 from) My concern is for those after me.
You don't appear to be all that familiar with Hawaii, so I am not going to go back and forth whether Senator Inouye and the local politicians would easily let what Hawaiian has planned for the state slip away for a temporary assurance of no current jobs being lost.

 

[HAL]

Consolidation is good for the bank account (managements, investors, wall st).

Not always.

USAirways learned that the hard way with PSA; in the end, they lost a whole lot on the deal. Same for AA and AirCal. No merger has boosted revenue on a particular route for more than a few months; only until some new competitor stepped in, and fares fell again. And looking at the mainland-Hawaii market, don't you think that there's already a lot of competetors ready to keep fares low?

The question is not "Will people stop flying because of the name on the side of the plane," but rather it comes down to "Will we make more money by buying this other airline?" If you look at the surface and say, "Hawaiian is making money, lets buy them," then sure, it's a slam-dunk. But the problem is that if you buy them, they aren't Hawaiian any more! What makes the airline profitable is lost, then you're stuck with another anchor on the bottom line.

What does Hawaiian bring to Delta that they can't get cheaper on their own? Planes? Nope. Routes? Except for a single daily flight to HND, nothing they couldn't do on their own right now. Employees? If Delta wants to expand, their new-hires will cost them a lot less then the 'legacy' employees that Hawaiian would add.

Hawaiian's profit comes from its own business model. If Delta buys them, the model is broken, and the profits go away, making the deal a bad one.

So tell me again, from a business perspective, why would Delta buy Hawaiian?

HAL

 

[jonjuan]

Why did SWA buy AT? After all, couldn't they also have done all those things you brought up? 2 very different cultures.

 

[ChinaClipper]

Hawaii is a State, but...

for all practical purposes, it more like a Territory, as it was prior to becoming the 5-0. Its unlike any other "state" in the Union. Different identity, culture and priorities. I know that the local politicians will probably NOT let another Aloha-type scenario go down, no one could have ever predicted that outcome. Only the "Don't Fly Go!" people had it right, I wish the locals would have listened! The damage that doosh/felon Ornstein wrought was immeasurable, and long lasting. But.... the minuses for Hawaii, ie the infrastructure of a 121 Certificate that would most surely go, (MX, call centers etc.) in a potential DL/HA Merger, would make that deal, a hard one. Besides, HA has the Aloha spirit that DL couldn't match! I can only imagine hearing reservation call between a Hilo local trying to talk to a Southern accent trying to book inter-island! ...how much fo dah long board yah? Keep HA Hawaiian.......

Economic impact to the state? Are you for real? All the acquiring carrier would need to guarantee is no loss of jobs (for a period of time). Hawaii isn't a foreign country, by the way. Look what happened with the SWA/AT merger. I think most would relish more jobs coming in. It will all be good in the end. Besides, you'll be retired by the time it all shakes out in 2014.

 

[igneousy2]

Not always.

USAirways learned that the hard way with PSA; in the end, they lost a whole lot on the deal. Same for AA and AirCal. No merger has boosted revenue on a particular route for more than a few months; only until some new competitor stepped in, and fares fell again. And looking at the mainland-Hawaii market, don't you think that there's already a lot of competetors ready to keep fares low?

The question is not "Will people stop flying because of the name on the side of the plane," but rather it comes down to "Will we make more money by buying this other airline?" If you look at the surface and say, "Hawaiian is making money, lets buy them," then sure, it's a slam-dunk. But the problem is that if you buy them, they aren't Hawaiian any more! What makes the airline profitable is lost, then you're stuck with another anchor on the bottom line.

What does Hawaiian bring to Delta that they can't get cheaper on their own? Planes? Nope. Routes? Except for a single daily flight to HND, nothing they couldn't do on their own right now. Employees? If Delta wants to expand, their new-hires will cost them a lot less then the 'legacy' employees that Hawaiian would add.

Hawaiian's profit comes from its own business model. If Delta buys them, the model is broken, and the profits go away, making the deal a bad one.

So tell me again, from a business perspective, why would Delta buy Hawaiian?

HAL

I agree with you. The only reason I think Delta would have to buy Hawaiian is to eliminate a competitor...i.e. AA/Reno. Delta+Hawaiian would make Delta the number 1 carrier to Hawaii...but then why? It is a fairly low yield market, with a lot of glamour that leaves no shortage of entrants to the market.

I know a lot of people at HA and my conversations with them are very similar to my conversations with people at AS, and it is the fear of being bought and lately it is always Delta. I think a Delta buyout of either HA or AS is not likely in the near future mostly because of size...big fish eat medium fish and quite frankly AS and HA are at least for now, too small to move the needle for Delta. I think what is more likely (and maybe more scary) is a tie-up of Hawaiian and Jet Blue or Hawaiian and Alaska.

Hawaiian and Alaska have their niches, however, I think we are still swimming happily in our niches because they are niches the big players haven't really cared about. Alaska is the dominate West Coast carrier but people on the West Coast don't fly with the same frequency as people on the East Coast...not to mention the lack of population density.

Probably not as much with United, but with AA and Delta especially, the flights to Hawaii are there to let their frequent flyers redeem their miles. Selling a few tickets is just gravey.

 

[Dan Roman]

I agree with you. The only reason I think Delta would have to buy Hawaiian is to eliminate a competitor...i.e. AA/Reno. Delta+Hawaiian would make Delta the number 1 carrier to Hawaii...but then why? It is a fairly low yield market, with a lot of glamour that leaves no shortage of entrants to the market.

I know a lot of people at HA and my conversations with them are very similar to my conversations with people at AS, and it is the fear of being bought and lately it is always Delta. I think a Delta buyout of either HA or AS is not likely in the near future mostly because of size...big fish eat medium fish and quite frankly AS and HA are at least for now, too small to move the needle for Delta. I think what is more likely (and maybe more scary) is a tie-up of Hawaiian and Jet Blue or Hawaiian and Alaska.

Hawaiian and Alaska have their niches, however, I think we are still swimming happily in our niches because they are niches the big players haven't really cared about. Alaska is the dominate West Coast carrier but people on the West Coast don't fly with the same frequency as people on the East Coast...not to mention the lack of population density.

Probably not as much with United, but with AA and Delta especially, the flights to Hawaii are there to let their frequent flyers redeem their miles. Selling a few tickets is just gravey.

Agree I think AK and HA are both safe because we both have our own niche. Merging either one into DAL throws out what makes them successful and just adds a little more flying to their system. Not worth it. Especially at AK, with their stock price were it is, it would be a very evpensive way for DAL to get some more 737 flying on the west coast.
I don't see AK and HA as much of a match either. Combined they would still be a smaller than USAir legacy and both have strong brand loyalty by themselves.
Combining them would just make a few people richer and screw up a good thing for both employee groups.

 

[Dan Roman]

I'll give another analogy. USAir and Piedmont were both very successful, until they merged. Screwed them both up and just created a small legacy that was a shell of what they each were prior to merging.
I could see the same thing in a HA/AK merger.

 

[BentOver]

OK, OK!!! back on track.....Phase III, Phase III... anyone get a call/e-mail last week or today.. :beer:...My wife is tired of me checking my e-mail every 5 minutes

 

[BentOver]

Do Phase III calls usually go out right before they are planning on starting a class? Or do they do Phase III's just to keep a pool full? (I've heard there is a July class planned, so would they usually plan a Phase III sometime shortly before an August class? Assuming they are planning a class a month?)

It seems that everyone who does a Phase III typically gets a class date shortly afterwards... Does that sound somewhat accurate?

 

[HAL]

Why did SWA buy AT? After all, couldn't they also have done all those things you brought up? 2 very different cultures.

So because SWA and AT merged, any airline merger would be a good thing economically? I think you missed my point. The business models of SWA and AT were very similar. Merging them made sense, especially since AT was about 20% of SWA's size, so the economies of scale meant the merger would be better for SWA than merging with a smaller airline with a different business model. I've never said that the culture of the pilots & other employees was a major factor in whether a merger should happen. It would be stupid to do so. Yes, it is a consideration, but it's greatly outweighed by the economics of size, route structure, and business model.

HA is 5% the size of DL, with a very different business model. For all the economic reasons I've stated before, I don't think it would be a very good merger for either side.

As with so many of these internet discussions, ones viewpoints get in the way of the truth. Others may look at me, or Dan Roman, or 808 Pilot, or Hansoma, and simply say that we don't want the merger for personal reasons. Although that is partly true, for me, I've always tried to look at the big picture, and be pragmatic. If the merger makes economic sense for an airline, I'll say it is a good thing to do, like I did with the SWA/AT merger. If it involves too much risk, with a large likelihood of costing too much $$, then I'd say 'don't do it'. Such is the case with HA/DL, or AK/DL. The costs and benefits to DL would be too much, and outweigh any perceived benefit.

No, I'm not an airline economics expert. This is just my viewpoint, coming from many years in the industry - one that I'm trying hard to keep separate from my wish for HA to remain independent.

HAL

 

[HAL]

Do Phase III calls usually go out right before they are planning on starting a class? Or do they do Phase III's just to keep a pool full? (I've heard there is a July class planned, so would they usually plan a Phase III sometime shortly before an August class? Assuming they are planning a class a month?)

It seems that everyone who does a Phase III typically gets a class date shortly afterwards... Does that sound somewhat accurate?

So... back to our program, already in progress.

Phase III is the psych written tests, background check, and physical. If you pass those then yes, you usually get the class date.

If they're going to hire 95 new pilots and get them trained by March, then yes, it's going to be a class a month for most of the next year.

HAL

 

[BentOver]

So... back to our program, already in progress.

Phase III is the psych written tests, background check, and physical. If you pass those then yes, you usually get the class date.

If they're going to hire 95 new pilots and get them trained by March, then yes, it's going to be a class a month for most of the next year.

HAL

Thanks for the info HAL, although I may not have correctly phrased my question.

Say if the next class wasn't going to be until say the 2nd week in September (hypothetical), would it be normal for Hawaiian to do a Phase III say tomorrow for that class? Or would they typically do a Phase III closer to mid August? I guess what I'm trying to figure is do they typically create a pool of Phase III pilots for future classes that have yet to be scheduled, OR would they do one knowing what class those Phase III's would head to?

I'm used to getting a notice within a week or two about being accepted and given a class date etc... This process is a bit new to me if ya couldn't tell:beer:

Thanks again

 

[HAL]

Thanks for the info HAL, although I may not have correctly phrased my question.

Say if the next class wasn't going to be until say the 2nd week in September (hypothetical), would it be normal for Hawaiian to do a Phase III say tomorrow for that class? Or would they typically do a Phase III closer to mid August? I guess what I'm trying to figure is do they typically create a pool of Phase III pilots for future classes that have yet to be scheduled, OR would they do one knowing what class those Phase III's would head to?

I'm used to getting a notice within a week or two about being accepted and given a class date etc... This process is a bit new to me if ya couldn't tell:beer:

Thanks again

Nobody except the HR gurus know for sure what the program is. However, from what I've seen, the Phase III calls don't go out until a month or two before the class starts. I think the determing factor on that time frame is how long the evaluation takes for the psych/background/physical tests to be returned, tabulated, and a decision made on each candidate. Like I said, from what I've heard, that can be from 1 to 2 months before the class starts.

HAL

 

[jmt]

Nobody except the HR gurus know for sure what the program is. However, from what I've seen, the Phase III calls don't go out until a month or two before the class starts. I think the determing factor on that time frame is how long the evaluation takes for the psych/background/physical tests to be returned, tabulated, and a decision made on each candidate. Like I said, from what I've heard, that can be from 1 to 2 months before the class starts.

HAL

or it could be less than 2 weeks before the scheduled class date.

 

[808pilot]

They have a history of of giving guys 14 days notice to the day... They have a July 5th class already accounted for from what I heard... But they also may be having a July 16th class for which I know they did phase 3 last week... Farkas follow ups happened over the weekend which means some calls for a class could be coming up any day now... I've never heard of them calling guys for a phase 3 and then having them sit in the pool for more than three weeks... But you never know...

 

[xjhawk]

my family situation has changed and I could no longer move my wife and kids out to Hawaii (I used to live there and would love to go back). The reason is a divorce-I have heard of people commuting and the horror of the crash pad situation ($1400 a month to share an apartment). Is that really the only scenario for crash pad or is there other options? Should I just abandon my goal of flying for Hawaiian?

 

[BentOver]

They have a history of of giving guys 14 days notice to the day... They have a July 5th class already accounted for from what I heard... But they also may be having a July 16th class for which I know they did phase 3 last week... Farkas follow ups happened over the weekend which means some calls for a class could be coming up any day now... I've never heard of them calling guys for a phase 3 and then having them sit in the pool for more than three weeks... But you never know...

Kinda what I was thinking/hoping....

I haven't heard of anyone in my interview group getting a Phase III invite yet....I was kind of hoping that because the July classes are already filled that the reason we haven't heard anything was that August is still a ways off...
OR it's just wishful thinking on my part and they really hated me

BTW, just checked my e-mail and my heart skipped a beat when I saw the Hawaiian e-mail...Only to realize quickly it was an offer of a great RT flight to the Bay Area for only $500!!! Damn Pulani Platinum status always fooling me!!!

 

[BentOver]

my family situation has changed and I could no longer move my wife and kids out to Hawaii (I used to live there and would love to go back). The reason is a divorce-I have heard of people commuting and the horror of the crash pad situation ($1400 a month to share an apartment). Is that really the only scenario for crash pad or is there other options? Should I just abandon my goal of flying for Hawaiian?

I know there are few hotels that you could get for maybe $100-150 a night.. depending of course how often you'd have to stay. My biggest worry doing that would be being on reserve for a while or getting the 717 without overnights... Best case would obviously be getting the -330, off reserve quickly, and spending 5 or so nights a month in a hotel before your trip starts...IMO