shroomwell
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2003
- Posts
- 280
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If you are gonna have 2 million in your 401k at retirement and be young enough to enjoy it, than you ought to get into the hedge fund business.
There is no way you will get that kind of return from max contributions to get to 2 million.
I started young. Actually, I am right on target to have $3 million when I retire (planned retirement at age 67, but wouldn't mind getting out sooner). I still have 25 years until retirement.
I sat down with my financial adviser. He wanted to take what I currently have, calculate a 10% average return over the next 25 years, including continuing to max the 401K and 50% matching (but we did not include the catch-up contributions that can be made after I turn 50), and he came up with a number very close to $5 million.
However, i wanted to go more conservative and use an average return of 7%, 'just in case'. I should have about $3 million at retirement.
Pie in the sky? Maybe. But looking back to when I started contributing, and factoring it out to where I am now, and that includes the big losses of 2008, I am almost EXACTLY where I would be expected to be in order to reach my goals.
If I stop contributing to my 401K right now, I would still reach almost $1 million by age 67. That's using a very basic 'rule of 72', which says your money will double every 72 months. It has been working out almost perfectly with that rule so far.
Obviously, I can not predict what the market will do over the next 25 months, let alone 25 years, but I don't think expecting a 7% average return over that time period is unrealistic. Also, I can't predict how much will go into my 401K over the next 25 years (may have an emergency where I need the money, or we lose company matching in future negotiations), but based on past performance of the market, even including 2008, it's looking really good for meeting my goals.
And hey, if my adviser is right, and I actually average 10% over the next 25 years, I'll retire with a bunch more than $3 million (possibly $5 million), or be able to retire 4 or 5 years earlier, which would suit me just fine.
The REAL questions is something else in your post. Will I be young enough to enjoy it? Don't know. 67 really isn't all that old these days. If I continue to take care of myself, and avoid any major mishaps, then I could have many years of enjoyment after 67. Or not. That's harder to predict than the market.
I started young. Actually, I am right on target to have $3 million when I retire (planned retirement at age 67, but wouldn't mind getting out sooner). I still have 25 years until retirement.
I sat down with my financial adviser. He wanted to take what I currently have, calculate a 10% average return over the next 25 years, including continuing to max the 401K and 50% matching (but we did not include the catch-up contributions that can be made after I turn 50), and he came up with a number very close to $5 million.
However, i wanted to go more conservative and use an average return of 7%, 'just in case'. I should have about $3 million at retirement.
Pie in the sky? Maybe. But looking back to when I started contributing, and factoring it out to where I am now, and that includes the big losses of 2008, I am almost EXACTLY where I would be expected to be in order to reach my goals.
If I stop contributing to my 401K right now, I would still reach almost $1 million by age 67. That's using a very basic 'rule of 72', which says your money will double every 72 months. It has been working out almost perfectly with that rule so far.
Obviously, I can not predict what the market will do over the next 25 months, let alone 25 years, but I don't think expecting a 7% average return over that time period is unrealistic. Also, I can't predict how much will go into my 401K over the next 25 years (may have an emergency where I need the money, or we lose company matching in future negotiations), but based on past performance of the market, even including 2008, it's looking really good for meeting my goals.
And hey, if my adviser is right, and I actually average 10% over the next 25 years, I'll retire with a bunch more than $3 million (possibly $5 million), or be able to retire 4 or 5 years earlier, which would suit me just fine.
The REAL questions is something else in your post. Will I be young enough to enjoy it? Don't know. 67 really isn't all that old these days. If I continue to take care of myself, and avoid any major mishaps, then I could have many years of enjoyment after 67. Or not. That's harder to predict than the market.
First off lose your financial advisor. Anybody who assumes a 10% return in a Zero Percent Interest Rate (ZIRP) environment, is either ignorant or a charlatan. To get 7% you need to take a lot of risk. And risk means you could lose.
The rule of 72 you refer to actually means to divide your expected rate of return by 72 to get the time to double. Therefore if you rate of return is 9% the doubling time is 8 years.
I say all this so people understand there is risk. It is best to assume the worst and hope for the best, that way anything extra is a bonus. Also you should never have all your eggs in one basket, meaning don't invest your entire 401k into the stock market. Just think if you had invested all your money in the Nasdaq in 1999, 12 years later you are still looking at a substantial loss of principal. Also over the last decade government bonds have outperformed stocks. Don't take short term thinking (gambling) and apply it to your retirement. You need to have a long term focus on it, and you need to be safe.
Your Financial Advisor isn't very bright if he's telling you that the Rule of 72 says that your money will double in 72 months. In reality it's the number by which you divide your expected annual rate of return to get the number of years your money will double. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/ruleof72.asp#axzz1lWLFb84tShroom, that's good advice. I'm actually scheduled to meet with my adviser again (gotta do more tweeking with the switch to Schwab). I'll see what he has to say. You are correct, I'm in mostly high risk stuff right now.
I did suffer some very significant losses in 2008 as a result of my portfolio.
But the market has come back, along with my money, and while my gains over the past few years have been flat because of that, if you look at the bigger picture, say the past 8 years, my total investment is up 12.5%. I'm not counting on that kind of long-term return, but even with a truly horrible year or two in there along the way, I think I'll be alright.
You keep saying it can't happen, it won't happen, only in a fantasy spreadsheet. I don't understand your logic, as it IS happening, exactly as my adviser has predicted. Sorry, not going to put my actual numbers up here for the world to see, but based on what my adviser has told me to expect, and what my money is actually doing, the rule of 72 is working fine, and by dollar cost averaging my contributions, I'm doing well enough. I won't be riding in the back of the planes I fly in the future, but will have a comfortable retirement.
Things can change. I can't predict the market, or life, with any amount of real accuracy. My plans do include shifting sizable chunks of money into safer investments as things progress. You're right in that I'm HOPING things continue to work out as planned. It's all I can do, but they seem to be doing alright so far.
I'll talk to my adviser about your advice. But I think I'll keep him. He's a pretty smart fella.
Your Financial Advisor isn't very bright if he's telling you that the Rule of 72 says that your money will double in 72 months. In reality it's the number by which you divide your expected annual rate of return to get the number of years your money will double. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/ruleof72.asp#axzz1lWLFb84t
If you are using 72-months for a double, you need an annual average return of 12%. Don't count on that as you shouldn't count on the frax model/payrates/401k match to be around forever.
His advisor is telling him that the rule of 72 yields 12% per year (double in 6 years). If he wants to believe his advisor isn't trying to hoodwink him, that's his deal. He probably also told him, "I can tell that you are not only a powerful man, but a good looking one." LOLNever use the past eight years to try and predict the next 25 years. That is short term thinkg and no one can predict that far out. The best thing to do is take the past 60 or 70 years and use that to TRY to predict the future.
You must not that Zero interest rates are going to have a tremendous effect on your returns. You cannot expect good returns in that environment.
As for your Financial Advisor. I suspect he is a guy who tells you what mutual funds to invest in. If you pay him for his time that is best, but if he is getting a commission from the funds you chose, than lose him, his interests are not aligned with yours. Besides he didn't know what the rule of 72 is and he thinks you can make 10% returns, which is BS. If he is that good he should be running a hedge fund making billions of dollars, and most of the guys who make that money in hedge funds cheat to some degree as well.
In today's environment I am happy to make 2-3% on my 401k money and be able to sleep at night knowing it is not at much risk. Sure it is horrible return on capital, but with the government/Fed keeping interest rate down at zero, it is what it is. Think of all the old people who used to live off of CD's at the bank getting 6-7% a year, they have essentially been put in the poor house by these policies.
Moral of the story is, be safe not greedy, it is you and your families future.
His advisor is telling him that the rule of 72 yields 12% per year (double in 6 years). If he wants to believe his advisor isn't trying to hoodwink him, that's his deal. He probably also told him, "I can tell that you are not only a powerful man, but a good looking one." LOL
With the fact that you nor your advisor know the meaning of "rule of 72", you appear to be lost in a fog (that or your advisor is mis-educating you).That's using a very basic 'rule of 72', which says your money will double every 72 months.
With the fact that you nor your advisor know the meaning of "rule of 72", you appear to be lost in a fog (that or your advisor is mis-educating you).
Seniority rules.
Not at Netjest
Seniority in the fracs is really pointless. Look at the situation at NJA for example. Many FOs are near the 10 year payscale maxout. They can work there for 30 years and not see a dime more...EVER. Upgrades...yeah, in like another 8 years if they are lucky (that makes you a 15 year FO on a 10 year payrate). PICs will bid the new equipment (lest they wait out a displacement and possibly get a fleet they hate) and the seats they vacate will go to disposal because our company leadership has it in their head that shrinkage is growth. FO bids in the GV are all that is left. But guess what? Those are going to PICs now too. So now the SICs have one thing left to use seniority for...which of the 3 crummy schedules do we want? Option 1 where you are on the road 7 days at a time, all the while being cabin boy cleaning up after the previous crew who didn't clean the plane or bother to do Jepps? Option 2 where you do 6 on 3 off until you turn purple? Or Option 3 where you have absolutely no idea when you work each month? So aside from vacation bids, seniority means nothing anymore. You have no upgrade, no payscale increase, and no life. So I ask...does expecting progress in your career make you an entitled baby? I think not.
Miss the airlines?Seniority in the fracs is really pointless. Look at the situation at NJA for example. Many FOs are near the 10 year payscale maxout. They can work there for 30 years and not see a dime more...EVER. Upgrades...yeah, in like another 8 years if they are lucky (that makes you a 15 year FO on a 10 year payrate). PICs will bid the new equipment (lest they wait out a displacement and possibly get a fleet they hate) and the seats they vacate will go to disposal because our company leadership has it in their head that shrinkage is growth. FO bids in the GV are all that is left. But guess what? Those are going to PICs now too. So now the SICs have one thing left to use seniority for...which of the 3 crummy schedules do we want? Option 1 where you are on the road 7 days at a time, all the while being cabin boy cleaning up after the previous crew who didn't clean the plane or bother to do Jepps? Option 2 where you do 6 on 3 off until you turn purple? Or Option 3 where you have absolutely no idea when you work each month? So aside from vacation bids, seniority means nothing anymore. You have no upgrade, no payscale increase, and no life. So I ask...does expecting progress in your career make you an entitled baby? I think not.
Not really. I am in fact rather happy (yes, still) at NJA. Overall it's a still a good job, even with much of the monkey business that's going on these days. But you know, no matter how much I like the job, I still have to have a future and the possibility of taking care of my family long term.Miss the airlines?
Just curious, but if a PIC bids down to SIC on the G-Whiz fleet, wouldn't said individual be taking a pay cut?
Your attitude amuses me Terry; you seem to have no idea what the current pilot market is like. You assume that you could leave NJA and go work for Delta, or any other airline, on your terms. What about the thousands of well qualified pilots, including the 495, of which I am a part of, that are beating the pavement everyday for any job that lets them pursue their dream of flying. Bringing home $120k+ in addition to great benefits, schedule and QOL, even while being forced to sit in the right seat and vaccuum up crackers and dog hair? You poor thing! Sounds like pretty good duty to a lot of pilots. You are doing what is best for your family now. Where else are you going to make that kind of money and still be home to see your family grow? I don't need, nor do I want, your sympathy, but guys like you that have the gall to complain at all about one of the best jobs in aviation, especially given the circumstances, are really salting the wound. Seniority has no value? Try telling that to your less senior comrades on the street. Get your head out of the sand. Please go stagnate somewhere else.
Not really. I am in fact rather happy (yes, still) at NJA. Overall it's a still a good job, even with much of the monkey business that's going on these days. But you know, no matter how much I like the job, I still have to have a future and the possibility of taking care of my family long term.
And with no upgrade, and even the SIC slots going to PICs now, there's just no point in stagnating. The initial pay hit of going to the airlines can be justified. Even if I never do upgrade, at 5 or 6 yrs from now at an airline, say Delta for example, $106,000 with many schedule lines to choose from, and a real reserve line (not the make believe reserve we have at NJA) is also possible. What's stopping me is that I don't want to do the whole commuting thing again. And I like the type of flying we do at NJA.
Nothing against the airlines, I just like what I do better now. But if those SIC slots for the GV keep going like the upgrades have, and there is no big improvement in pay next contract, I'll have to go. Sad, but sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.