Future regional aircraft

[Flyerdan]

Hi Dan. AGAIN, this is a restoration contract. Not much give and take. A lot was taken from us in BK, and thanks to recent profitabiltiy, it will be tougher for DL to cry "poor." Also, the DL CEO really has been backing off of RJs since he started his post. He touts parking RJs in his quarterly web sessions with analysts. Sure, there are some routes that still need RJs, but the merger with NWA has actually given DL as a whole a variety of aircraft to try on any route. Just look at ATL, there are now DC9s, A319s, and up on different routes. I can't believe the variety of planes now, and that is loved by the VP of Route Planning supposedly.

Look at the current consolidation in the Regionals. The Pinnacle group buys Colgan and Mesaba. SkyWest buys Xpressjet and ASA. Everyone is trying to get extra mass because they are scared of losing feed. Even with their mass though, there still are a few big regionals, (Republic too) and that still means whipsaw. Throw in new FAA rest/fatigue rules, and new hiring requirements, and that will be interesting to watch too.


Bye Bye---General Lee

You seem to have overlooked the fact that there are also hundreds of CRJ200's, CRJ700's & CRJ900's with more on the way. I predict that DAL/NWA pilots will become less and less concerned about scope issues as DAL adds more long haul overseas routes and starts to increase its fleet of larger aircraft. Then when the CRJ1000's and other larger regional aircraft appear on the ramp the mainline pilots will hardly notice because they will once again be looking forward with hope and certaintly that good things are happening to them instead of looking backward and focused solely on holding on to what they have.

 

[General Lee]

You seem to have overlooked the fact that there are also hundreds of CRJ200's, CRJ700's & CRJ900's with more on the way. I predict that DAL/NWA pilots will become less and less concerned about scope issues as DAL adds more long haul overseas routes and starts to increase its fleet of larger aircraft. Then when the CRJ1000's and other larger regional aircraft appear on the ramp the mainline pilots will hardly notice because they will once again be looking forward with hope and certaintly that good things are happening to them instead of looking backward and focused solely on holding on to what they have.

Hi Dan. First of all, you are off on your analysis. There are hundreds of CRJ200s, -700s, and -900s. But, the -700s and -900s are limited by the Scope clause.(for 70 and 76 seaters) Yes, SKW just got 4 more, but they are very close to the limit. The CRJ-200s are being parked at about 50 per year, a good start. With higher oil, it is very hard to make a profit with the 50 seaters. So, with the CRJ-200s on the way out, and CR7 and CR9s almost hitting the limit, I don't think many more will come this way. That is why SKW is flocking towards UAL ASAP, since they don't currently have a tight scope clause YET, like CAL does.

You also stated that DL pilots will be blinded by the fact that more INTL routes will be coming, and some larger planes. There are no new orders for any large planes except 787s, and those were just pushed until 2020. We are currently looking at more new domestic aircraft, including the new A320 NEO, and trying to put some pressure on Boeing to redesign the 737 with more fuel efficient engines. There may be some new or used widebodies coming in the future, but currently they haven't been announced. Also, most of the current pilots at Delta were affected in someway by the events of 9-11. The senior guys at the time mostly left Delta before the BK, and those were the guys that really wouldn't care much about RJs. The current guys saw the proliferation of RJs, and also the downfall in BK. They have seen their commutes dwindled on mainline planes, and watch RJs fly to their hometowns that once used 727s, which were full. That is just not forgotten. Fred Reid was the President of Delta after 9-11, and he stated "businessmen loved RJs due to FREQUECY OF FLIGHTS." We all know now that businessmen like room and the ability to work during flights, even while sitting next to someone who is a lot larger. You can't do that in an RJ. And, Fred Reid went on to start Virgin America Airlines with Branson and company, and without one RJ. I guess he learned his lesson. Your predictions are baseless and incorrect. Have a good one, Dan.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[johnsonrod]

Hi Dan. First of all, you are off on your analysis. There are hundreds of CRJ200s, -700s, and -900s. But, the -700s and -900s are limited by the Scope clause.(for 70 and 76 seaters) Yes, SKW just got 4 more, but they are very close to the limit. The CRJ-200s are being parked at about 50 per year, a good start. With higher oil, it is very hard to make a profit with the 50 seaters. So, with the CRJ-200s on the way out, and CR7 and CR9s almost hitting the limit, I don't think many more will come this way. That is why SKW is flocking towards UAL ASAP, since they don't currently have a tight scope clause YET, like CAL does.

You also stated that DL pilots will be blinded by the fact that more INTL routes will be coming, and some larger planes. There are no new orders for any large planes except 787s, and those were just pushed until 2020. We are currently looking at more new domestic aircraft, including the new A320 NEO, and trying to put some pressure on Boeing to redesign the 737 with more fuel efficient

engines. There may be some new or used widebodies coming in the future, but currently they haven't been announced. Also, most of the current pilots at Delta were affected in someway by the events of 9-11. The senior guys at the time mostly left Delta before the BK, and those were the guys that really wouldn't care much about RJs. The current guys saw the proliferation of RJs, and also the downfall in BK. They have seen their commutes dwindled on mainline planes, and watch RJs fly to their hometowns that once used 727s, which were full. That is just not forgotten. Fred Reid was the President of Delta after 9-11, and he stated "businessmen loved RJs due to FREQUECY OF FLIGHTS." We all know now that businessmen like room and the ability to work during flights, even while sitting next to someone who is a lot larger. You can't do that in an RJ. And, Fred Reid went on to start Virgin America Airlines with Branson and company, and without one RJ. I guess he learned his lesson. Your predictions are baseless and incorrect. Have a good one, Dan.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Great post Lee!

 

[Flyerdan]

Hi Dan. First of all, you are off on your analysis. There are hundreds of CRJ200s, -700s, and -900s. But, the -700s and -900s are limited by the Scope clause.(for 70 and 76 seaters) Yes, SKW just got 4 more, but they are very close to the limit. The CRJ-200s are being parked at about 50 per year, a good start. With higher oil, it is very hard to make a profit with the 50 seaters. So, with the CRJ-200s on the way out, and CR7 and CR9s almost hitting the limit, I don't think many more will come this way. That is why SKW is flocking towards UAL ASAP, since they don't currently have a tight scope clause YET, like CAL does.

You also stated that DL pilots will be blinded by the fact that more INTL routes will be coming, and some larger planes. There are no new orders for any large planes except 787s, and those were just pushed until 2020. We are currently looking at more new domestic aircraft, including the new A320 NEO, and trying to put some pressure on Boeing to redesign the 737 with more fuel efficient engines. There may be some new or used widebodies coming in the future, but currently they haven't been announced. Also, most of the current pilots at Delta were affected in someway by the events of 9-11. The senior guys at the time mostly left Delta before the BK, and those were the guys that really wouldn't care much about RJs. The current guys saw the proliferation of RJs, and also the downfall in BK. They have seen their commutes dwindled on mainline planes, and watch RJs fly to their hometowns that once used 727s, which were full. That is just not forgotten. Fred Reid was the President of Delta after 9-11, and he stated "businessmen loved RJs due to FREQUECY OF FLIGHTS." We all know now that businessmen like room and the ability to work during flights, even while sitting next to someone who is a lot larger. You can't do that in an RJ. And, Fred Reid went on to start Virgin America Airlines with Branson and company, and without one RJ. I guess he learned his lesson. Your predictions are baseless and incorrect. Have a good one, Dan.


Bye Bye---General Lee

That was a nice post and I hope you are right. I certainly am not an airline analyst so I may well be wrong. We have been getting more crj200's (referbished from the desert) here at Skywest unstead of retiring them. I do think there will be another airframe (brought on in fleetsize quantities) in our inventory in the next 3-5 years because the CRJ200's are getting to be high time and worn out. I have heard that regional airlines may soon adapt to being code share partners (supplying feed) operating 100 seat airframes. Does DAL and UAL scope preclude this kind of operation?

Anyway, I wasn't throwing flame bait out there I was just putting some thoughts out there to see if anyone else was thinking the airline industry was trending in those directions.

Flyerdan

 

[Metro752]

Great post Lee!

Be sure to wipe your mouth when you are through!

uke:

 

[johnsonrod]

Be sure to wipe your mouth when you are through!

uke:

A lot of people on here seem to dream about that. Gross! You make me sick!