Future of the Regionals - I am Calling It Here

[On Your Six]

Reading FREEBRD from CFIT's post (have him on ignore), I would absoluetly disagree. What many don't understand is it really does take a BK to TRY to change scope in big ways. First of all, the BK judge will not just "give" larger planes to AMR. He/she will look at the peers. It didn't happen in any of the other BKs. So, it cannot be forced, or it would have already happened. Next, the American pilots don't want to give it all away, they know what will happen, and the majority of pilots would vote it down, even if the senior guys tried to allow it. It wouldn't pass, it didn't at any of the other BK carriers. Next, even if somehow it DID happen at AMR, the other legacies aren't even close to BK. And, since they aren't close, it won't even come up. Look at the current CAL/UAL stance on nothing more than 50 seaters. Their MEC is sticking with that hardcore stance, even with all of the very senior pilots at both UAL and CAL. Same at DL. Scope would have been relaxed at the joint contract when DL/NWA came together, but it DID NOT. So, I wouldn't count on it (scope relaxation) if I were a regional guy.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[On Your Six]

This is the most pivotal element of the regional out source for the foreseeable future and will determine, most likely, everyone's outcome in this industie. IF the GTF is the game changer it's proported to be, and IF the C-series is as efficient as claimed, it will required by every carrier.

Who flies it will be the "million dollar" question. AA management has already proposed to give it to mainline but they have yet to acknowledge anything regarding the pensions. IF AA management gives into the pensions, then they are going to want to outsource the C-series.

If the C-series goes to an out source then AA will have substantial advantage over the others. So much so that the other legacies will need to follow with similar contracts.

So, it appears that AA pilots hold almost all of us at hand. If they hold strong, all should go as the OP has suggested. If they succomb then you can imagine the rest.

What has the past history shown on scope?

How bad do the AA pilots want to recover their pensions?

Who says the PBGC will allow the pension termination? They may be "frozen", but they may not lose it all together. The head of that agency doesn't sound like he wants to give in, and they have to prove at AMR that they will fail with the pensions intact. They went in with $4 billion in cash, and since the other airlines terminated their pensions, laws have been enacted to make it tougher to drop them.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[On Your Six]

That is for sure.

I doubt anyone flying a wide-body at UAL even knows , or cares what scope is.

I guess you don't know the CAL/UAL MEC stance on RJs. Sounds pretty "solid" to me. If it were not, they might have had a deal by now.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[skywdriver]

This is the most pivotal element of the regional out source for the foreseeable future and will determine, most likely, everyone's outcome in this industie. IF the GTF is the game changer it's proported to be, and IF the C-series is as efficient as claimed, it will required by every carrier.

Who flies it will be the "million dollar" question. AA management has already proposed to give it to mainline but they have yet to acknowledge anything regarding the pensions. IF AA management gives into the pensions, then they are going to want to outsource the C-series.

If the C-series goes to an out source then AA will have substantial advantage over the others. So much so that the other legacies will need to follow with similar contracts.

So, it appears that AA pilots hold almost all of us at hand. If they hold strong, all should go as the OP has suggested. If they succomb then you can imagine the rest.

What has the past history shown on scope?

How bad do the AA pilots want to recover their pensions?

Look at it from the other perspective. CAL/UAL get a joint contract first requiring that 90 seats be flown at mainline. Now, that takes leverage away from AMR management to give that piece of flying away. Rumor has it that Smisek realizes what is at stake here, and that he would like to get a contract done before the AMR guys finish up. I have trouble agreeing with anything Smisek says, but if he did indeed make that point, then I would certainly agree to that one.

 

[skywdriver]

A very bold prediction, one that would be a complete reversal of 15 (?) years of current mainline practices. You have anything other than a "feeling" to back this up?

Yes I do. There is absolutely no reason to give scope up. The results of the last scope relief have been felt by far too many. So, why would we do it again??? The guys in the bottom 25% see it simply as furlough protection. The 50% above them as seat or seniority protection. Ask a United guy who downgraded as the 737's were parked and replaced with 50 or 70 seat flying how he felt about the paycut. Ask a widebody captain how he felt about downgrading to narrowbody cpt. Ask a senior FO who got all his choice days off and a great schedule how he felt about working 18 days per month and having no control over his schedule. Ask all the guys who went from lineholder to reserve how they felt about the scope relief.

I would hardly call that a bold prediction, but rather a reasonable one.

 

[CA1900]

Every time two 50seaters are replaced by one 100seater that is a reduction of pilots in the industry.

True. But for every 100-seat mainline plane that's replaced by two outsourced 50-seaters, a dozen more pilots see their careers hit a brick wall.

 

[outerlimits]

I guess you don't know the CAL/UAL MEC stance on RJs. Sounds pretty "solid" to me. If it were not, they might have had a deal by now.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

I guess you do not know the UAL management stance. You know the ones that put them into bankruptcy, stole there pensions, cut there pay by over half(50%).

The MEC is bring a knife to a gun fight.


PS DAL is next on the list. The DAL union is a paper tiger.

 

[8sugarsugar]

Truer words could not be spoken.


The regionals will only grow larger.

Agreed, after the AMR mess is done and over with you will see the scope contracts be broken and Eagle will be flying A320s and 737s within the next decade.

RyanAir in europe is already paying 737-800 FO's $27,000 USD/year and making them pay for their own recurrents...

The Delta/United/American/US Air brands will just be brands with everything outsourced. Look at what Qantas is doing.

This big retirement/hiring boom will be replaced with outsourcing to low paid pilots with no pensions.

 

[Flopgut]

I guess you do not know the UAL management stance. You know the ones that put them into bankruptcy, stole there pensions, cut there pay by over half(50%).

That UAL mgt team is gone. It's CAL mgt now, and they made a grab for the UAL scope that resulted in a scope arbitration win for pilot labor. Yeah, the 70 seaters are still flying in the UAL brand, but only on the former UAL side. The former CAL flying is still covered by the former CAL scope, even after all the flying has been merged.

A member of the new UAL mgt team, who was trying to justify the 70 seater, spoke to it like this: Skywest wanted to fly the 70 seater for 50 seat wage for "growth", going forward that's all any of them are going to get. 50s go away and the 70s go to 50 seat wage, and then they can start bidding against each other. The 90 seaters go to UAL mainline and pay a decent wage.

However, I'm not even in favor of them skating on the 70.

 

[jynxyjericho]

Yes I do. There is absolutely no reason to give scope up. The results of the last scope relief have been felt by far too many. So, why would we do it again??? The guys in the bottom 25% see it simply as furlough protection. The 50% above them as seat or seniority protection. Ask a United guy who downgraded as the 737's were parked and replaced with 50 or 70 seat flying how he felt about the paycut. Ask a widebody captain how he felt about downgrading to narrowbody cpt. Ask a senior FO who got all his choice days off and a great schedule how he felt about working 18 days per month and having no control over his schedule. Ask all the guys who went from lineholder to reserve how they felt about the scope relief.

I would hardly call that a bold prediction, but rather a reasonable one.

Hehe, yeah I've actually talked to some of those guys you are speaking of. There are guys that care, but overwhelmingly they didn't. If it comes down to better pay vs scope for a bunch of guys that have 10 or less years left and they know there's no chance of a furlough thanks to retirements that's the ball game. There will be the hold outs as always, but majority rules, and my experience shows the majority to want nothing to do with the RJs. My sampling has been fairly unscientific (mostly commuters).

 

[Freebrd]

Reading FREEBRD from CFIT's post (have him on ignore), I would absoluetly disagree.

Aww ain't that sweet, you having me on ignore and depending on others to copy my post so you can respond, not much difference General, oops, it's back to Oys this week, so sorry


So, I wouldn't count on it (scope relaxation) if I were a regional

Not counting on it General, just see a strong possibility for it to occur. Might be why DAL management wants to extend your present agreement eh"?

Godspeed! The General

.

Fixed for ya General! Have a lovely day now ya yeah!

 

[skywdriver]

Hehe, yeah I've actually talked to some of those guys you are speaking of. There are guys that care, but overwhelmingly they didn't. If it comes down to better pay vs scope for a bunch of guys that have 10 or less years left and they know there's no chance of a furlough thanks to retirements that's the ball game. There will be the hold outs as always, but majority rules, and my experience shows the majority to want nothing to do with the RJs. My sampling has been fairly unscientific (mostly commuters).

I have a conversation with pretty much every person I fly with regarding expectations on the new contract. To date, only 1 person has said all they care about is more money in their own wallet. Everyone else lists scope as one of the most important issues in the next contract. Now, I do admit that talk is cheap, so no way to know for sure if these folks would stand so strong when it comes time to vote. However, scope even affects a good percentage of the guys with 10 years or less to go. The only guys that don't get hit with a negative impact of scope relief are the guys at the very top of the list who would keep their widebody cpt seat and same quality of life regardless of scope relief, but they are far outnumbered by people who would see a hit in pay and or quality of life as mainline parked more 737's or 320's and outsourced that to the regionals. I can't speak for United, but from what I have been told, CAL reps will not even allow a contract to be voted on if it gives 90 seat flying away.

 

[Flopgut]

The only guys that don't get hit with a negative impact of scope relief are the guys at the very top of the list who would keep their widebody cpt seat and same quality of life regardless of scope relief.

The very senior CAL pilots understand the Aer Lingus flight is a scope issue that could evaporate the top jobs at UAL. (BTW: I have no earthly idea how UAL ALPA screwed that grievance up...)

Throughout the list, 99% of UAL pilots understand Section 1 [scope] is the single most important section of this contract. The mediator has told mgt that this is not a concessionary contract. Mgt is just dragging their feet.

 

[On Your Six]

The very senior CAL pilots understand the Aer Lingus flight is a scope issue that could evaporate the top jobs at UAL. (BTW: I have no earthly idea how UAL ALPA screwed that grievance up...)

Throughout the list, 99% of UAL pilots understand Section 1 [scope] is the single most important section of this contract. The mediator has told mgt that this is not a concessionary contract. Mgt is just dragging their feet.

Same at the other healthy legacies. You don't always have to give something up to restore what you used to have. In bad times that may be necessary. When profits are huge, not so much. Scope givebacks at healthy carriers (and probably BK carriers) aren't very likely at all.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[cynic]

You guys are nimrods. The future is easy to predict.

Major airlines will continue to fly the most economical airplanes at the lowest salary the market will bear. As compensation at the major airlines continues to fall it will eventually be as low as it is at regional airlines.

In other words, the jobs at the top will go away and there will be more jobs at the bottom.

Or have you guys failed to notice a trend over the last THIRTY years?

 

[On Your Six]

This is the most pivotal element of the regional out source for the foreseeable future and will determine, most likely, everyone's outcome in this industie. IF the GTF is the game changer it's proported to be, and IF the C-series is as efficient as claimed, it will required by every carrier.

Who flies it will be the "million dollar" question. AA management has already proposed to give it to mainline but they have yet to acknowledge anything regarding the pensions. IF AA management gives into the pensions, then they are going to want to outsource the C-series.

If the C-series goes to an out source then AA will have substantial advantage over the others. So much so that the other legacies will need to follow with similar contracts.

So, it appears that AA pilots hold almost all of us at hand. If they hold strong, all should go as the OP has suggested. If they succomb then you can imagine the rest.

What has the past history shown on scope?

How bad do the AA pilots want to recover their pensions?

American Airlines retreats on plan to dump pensions

By Chris Isidore CNN Money March 7, 2012: 2:43 PM ET



American Airlines' ground workers are to have their pension plans frozen rather than terminated and dumped on a federal agency.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- American Airlines retreated Wednesday on its proposal to terminate its workers' pension plans and dump them on a federal agency as part of its bankruptcy reorganization. The company will freeze the plans instead.


The move, which must be approved by a judge, means employees would not accumulate any additional benefits -- and American's future contributions to the underfunded plans would be reined in.
But the new proposal could spare employees cuts in promised benefits and thus is seen as a win for the unions, which are facing management demands for billions in other concessions, including deep layoffs.
It also could also clear the way for management to win an agreement on the other cost savings it is seeking.

"We believe this solution would remove a major obstacle to reaching consensual agreements," said Jeff Brundage, American's senior vice president of human resources, in a letter to employees. Freezing pension plans is a cost-saving measure for companies facing significant contributions in coming years.
.
The move by American is a clear win for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the federal agency that would have been responsible for the underfunded plans if they had been terminated.

American estimates that its funding gap in the plans stands at $4.8 billion, while the pension agency puts the difference between plan assets and obligations at closer to $10 billion.

"Bankruptcy forces tough choices, but that doesn't mean pensions must be sacrificed for companies to succeed," said Josh Gotbaum, director of the agency.

American parent AMR Corp. on Nov. 29, saying it needed to win billions in annual cost savings from employees and other creditors to compete with rivals such as Delta Air Lines, United Continental, and U.S. Airways ( that made their own trips through bankruptcy court in the last decade. American is still seeking to cut 13,000 jobs from its staff of 88,000 active employees, part of plans to save $1.25 billion in annual labor costs.






Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[On Your Six]

You guys are nimrods. The future is easy to predict.

Major airlines will continue to fly the most economical airplanes at the lowest salary the market will bear. As compensation at the major airlines continues to fall it will eventually be as low as it is at regional airlines.

In other words, the jobs at the top will go away and there will be more jobs at the bottom.

Or have you guys failed to notice a trend over the last THIRTY years?

I guess you forgot that very few people are starting piloting careers these days (too expensive for many), and that there will be a shortage eventually. People are still flying more per year, but huge retirements are just a few years away. That is called eventual leverage.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[BrickTop]

I guess you forgot that very few people are starting piloting careers these days (too expensive for many), and that there will be a shortage eventually. People are still flying more per year, but huge retirements are just a few years away. That is called eventual leverage.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

Out of touch. You are better off planning alternatives than living in eternal optimism. Try to think more pragmatically.

 

[CFIT]

American Airlines retreats on plan to dump pensions

By Chris Isidore CNN Money March 7, 2012: 2:43 PM ET



American Airlines' ground workers are to have their pension plans frozen rather than terminated and dumped on a federal agency.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- American Airlines retreated Wednesday on its proposal to terminate its workers' pension plans and dump them on a federal agency as part of its bankruptcy reorganization. The company will freeze the plans instead.


The move, which must be approved by a judge, means employees would not accumulate any additional benefits -- and American's future contributions to the underfunded plans would be reined in.
But the new proposal could spare employees cuts in promised benefits and thus is seen as a win for the unions, which are facing management demands for billions in other concessions, including deep layoffs.
It also could also clear the way for management to win an agreement on the other cost savings it is seeking.

"We believe this solution would remove a major obstacle to reaching consensual agreements," said Jeff Brundage, American's senior vice president of human resources, in a letter to employees. Freezing pension plans is a cost-saving measure for companies facing significant contributions in coming years.
.
The move by American is a clear win for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the federal agency that would have been responsible for the underfunded plans if they had been terminated.

American estimates that its funding gap in the plans stands at $4.8 billion, while the pension agency puts the difference between plan assets and obligations at closer to $10 billion.

"Bankruptcy forces tough choices, but that doesn't mean pensions must be sacrificed for companies to succeed," said Josh Gotbaum, director of the agency.

American parent AMR Corp. on Nov. 29, saying it needed to win billions in annual cost savings from employees and other creditors to compete with rivals such as Delta Air Lines, United Continental, and U.S. Airways ( that made their own trips through bankruptcy court in the last decade. American is still seeking to cut 13,000 jobs from its staff of 88,000 active employees, part of plans to save $1.25 billion in annual labor costs.






Godspeed!


The OYSter

By Kyle Peterson
(Reuters) - AMR Corp, the bankrupt parent of American Airlines, on Wednesday proposed a plan to freeze pensions covering many of its workers, retreating from an earlier proposal to terminate them and leave them to government insurers, which could result in lower payouts.
The proposal, which would avert the largest pension default in U.S. history, could move the third-largest U.S. airline a step closer to consensual deals with its major unionized work groups as its struggles to slash uncompetitive labor costs.
AMR, which filed for Chapter 11 on November 29, had been the only major airline to avoid bankruptcy in the last decade and is the only one that still has traditional, or defined benefit, pensions, the company said.
"Freezing the defined benefit pension plans would mean that employees would retain the full value of benefits accrued for service prior to the date the plan is frozen," said Jeff Brundage, AMR's senior vice president of human Resources, in a letter to employees.
"Freezing instead of terminating these plans of course would mean we will have significantly larger pension costs than contemplated in our business plan," Brundage said.
AMR has said it must cut 13,000 jobs as part of a plan to trim costs by $2 billion, including $1.25 billion in labor costs. AMR said it still must achieve the labor savings target and it would seek new capital to cover the incremental annual costs of funding frozen pensions.
AMR said in letters to employees that the pension proposal does not extend to its pilots because their plan includes provisions for a costly lump sum payout to retiring workers that other work groups do not have.
"Given the number of pilots who are eligible to retire, the company would be at significant operational risk if we emerge from Chapter 11 with a frozen plan that allows pilots to retire with a lump sum benefit," Brundage said. AMR still wants to terminate the pilots' plan unless it can get the lump sum matter resolved.
The Allied Pilots Association did not immediately comment.



A lot of AA pilots would probably have their pension than a large RJ, don't you think General? Also did'nt the Delta pilots give into the 76 seat RJ long before the company went 11?

 

[Homer Jay]

Why do you regional guys want to keep growing? Do you enjoy working harder and getting paid half of what I do?