Future AA retirements?

[aviator1978]

AA's pilots look pretty senior (no offense guys). How many are going to have to retire in the next few years?

Is AMR sitting on the edge of a significant pilot shortage?

 

[nwaredtail]

No, 6 to 10 years. Hired a lot of young guys in the early to mid 80's. Fleet cut by 20% or so (like all the majors)

I'd say AA is the worst for progression right now

 

[aviator1978]

Well 6 to 10 years isn't that long. What was a 'young guy' in the 80's. 25, 30, 35?

Where do you think they'll get the guys they need?

 

[GIII Instructor]

AA's retirement schedule is posted on their website. on average we are losing 400 pilots per year to age 60 for the significant future. on average, early retirements have been 15 to 20 percent above the 400. as the pilots near a strike, that number could spike. a recession could cause the number spike. etc.

 

[aviator1978]

Where's the website?

 

[GIII Instructor]

company based website... must be an aa employee

 

[Big Slick]

AA Retirements

American Airlines Retirements:
2005-219
2006-313
2007-351
2008-457
2009-459
2010-397
2011-340
2012-329
2013-405
2014-405
2015-584
2016-643
2017-691
2018-739
2019-735
2020-750
2021-724
2022-623
2023-509
2024-486
2025-417

I took these numbers off flight info about 2 years ago. I'm too lazy to search the AA website.

If you look on this site in 5-10 years, everyone will be talking about the quick upgrades at AA. Everything is a cycle.

 

[Big Slick]

This is from another thread:
Um...no...350 next year is a high estimate IMHO...SWA is not doing so hot right now. Newhires should plan on 10+ years as a FO.

2-3 years ago, everyone wanted to work for SWA so they could upgrade in 4-5 years.

Disclaimer: I am in no way putting down SWA. I am only trying to illustrate that the airline industry works in cycles.

 

[Tank68]

Did you every notice that fortune tellers live in the dumpiest places? Seems like if they could tell the future they would make better financial decisions.

Unrelated:
Wow 10 years to upgrade! That’s a lot.

 

[tomgoodman]

Makes sense

Did you every notice that fortune tellers live in the dumpiest places? Seems like if they could tell the future they would make better financial decisions.

The local police raided a fortune teller and arrested him for fraud. When asked "How do you know he was a fake?", the cop replied "If he were genuine, he would have seen us coming."

 

[pkober]

Did you every notice that fortune tellers live in the dumpiest places? Seems like if they could tell the future they would make better financial decisions.

Unrelated:
Wow 10 years to upgrade! That’s a lot.

Is that a serious statement? It comes in cycles. I flew with guys at TWA who couldn't upgrade off the panel for 15 years. In the big picture, a 25 - 30 yr old newhire making Captain by 40 is pretty good. I know some other airlines a quicker, some are slower.

TWA told me I'd be a Capatin in 5 years. How'd that work out?!?!?

 

[Tank68]

I just think the predictions on this site are humorous, I have been told by people with much more insight than Slick that I will upgrade in 6 to 7 years at SWA. I will know the exact date when I get the call from Dallas. So take no offense Slick, or anyone else making predictions on this sight if I don't plan my schedule based on their "insight".

 

[Big Slick]

No offense taken.

Here is how you plan your major airline upgrade to captain:

1. Get your tickets punched
2. Get lots of jet PIC
3. Apply to everyone
4. Go to work where you get hired

It's pretty easy, really.

 

[COpilot]

No offense, but if one is to beleive the reports, there's going to be a lot less over the next 5 years or so.

I'm sure that's part of bush's plan to help make the airlines fly on time!

 

[123]

No offense, but if one is to beleive the reports, there's going to be a lot less over the next 5 years or so.

I'm sure that's part of bush's plan to help make the airlines fly on time!

Yeah, that is the problem with reports and numbers. You spin them however you would like. One day the spin will be that the airlines will reduce capacity (we need to raise fairs) and the next day it will be the fact that the FAA is forecasting major growth in passenger travel numbers (FAA needs a larger budget). I don't believe any of them 100% since they all leave details out.

 

[pilotss]

Not too mention that any expansion/contraction/merger throws a wrench in those numbers. Pull the lever on the side of the machine and hope 777 (cap) comes up.