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Further RJ Reductions.....

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Sedona16

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2001
Posts
564
Just saw this posted on another board:

Skyrocketing fuel costs prompt U.S. route cancellations
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March 14, 2008

Because of the continuing spike in oil prices, and its effect on jet fuel costs, we are discontinuing service in markets as part of an ongoing strategy to manage those costs. Select flights and markets that cannot be profitable in light of the increase in fuel prices are being canceled.

By May 1, we will discontinue service in four markets operated by Delta Connection carriers. From Salt Lake City, we will discontinue service to Bellingham, Wash., and Fargo, N.D., both operated by SkyWest Airlines. From Atlanta, we’ll stop service to Atlantic City, N.J., and Islip/Long Island, N.Y., both operated by Atlantic Southeast Airlines.

“As a result of the 70% to 80% increase in fuel prices experienced over the last year, we continue to fight rising fuel prices through capacity reductions in the U.S. and by shifting more aircraft to international routes,” said Joe Esposito, managing director-Schedule Planning. “During 2008, we are trimming domestic schedules in select domestic markets at off-peak times and reducing the number of regional jets in our fleet, while at the same time growing our international capacity.” Other domestic regional jet markets that have been canceled previously as a direct result of increased fuel prices include Corpus Christi and McAllen, Texas, and Tupelo, Miss.

Because of our cost effective and flexible fleet, there is a possibility for further domestic reductions as necessary, Joe said. “We will continue to review market conditions to ensure we are most effectively responding to these persistently high fuel prices,” he said.

Delta began Delta Connection service to Bellingham –- about 90 miles north of Seattle and 50 miles south of Vancouver -– in 2006 with two daily round-trip flights to Salt Lake City. That dropped to one flight last fall. Delta spokesman Anthony Black tells the Herald it was difficult for Delta and its partners to turn a profit on the route using a 50-seat regional jet, which he says has high per-passenger costs even beyond fuel. "Even if your aircraft is full, you're not going to be able to make up that margin of cost," he says.
 
i'm sure glad to hear that all the rj guys who chose not to go the majors. because they felt they could not afford a pay cut, has made the right decision. Most majors will be cutting the gravy train such as express jet from cal.


it's good to know our future is in such good hands


flame away
 
i'm sure glad to hear that all the rj guys who chose not to go the majors. because they felt they could not afford a pay cut, has made the right decision. Most majors will be cutting the gravy train such as express jet from cal.


it's good to know our future is in such good hands


flame away

it would appear that many of the regional pilots who bashed their mainlines or passed on their chance to move up might have second thoughts soon.
 
it would appear that many of the regional pilots who bashed their mainlines or passed on their chance to move up might have second thoughts soon.

LOL !

That would only be if your fantasy of all regional jets forever going *poof* were to actually happen.

RJ's will decrease (especially smaller ones), but they'll remain in the industry for decades to come, so many (actually most) RJ pilots won't have to worry too much about job security.

Sorry to bust your bubble.
 
LOL !

That would only be if your fantasy of all regional jets forever going *poof* were to actually happen.

RJ's will decrease (especially smaller ones), but they'll remain in the industry for decades to come, so many (actually most) RJ pilots won't have to worry too much about job security.

Sorry to bust your bubble.


What color is the sky in your world?:confused:
 
. . . .

RJ's will decrease (especially smaller ones), but they'll remain in the industry for decades to come, so many (actually most) RJ pilots won't have to worry too much about job security.

No, they'll just have to worry about making their mortgages, sending their kids to college, and retirement.
 
Yes, I'm certain that in this economy Delta is eager to go spend a lot of money on used MD-80's and hire a bunch of pilots just to replace RJ's. Some routes will be cut, others will have reduced frequency, but the RJ ain't going away any time soon. Notice that Delta's emphasis is on expanding international flying. That is where the money is. Domestic narrow body flying is a necessary evil required to fill the seats on the bigger planes otherwise it's a loser. If Delta is going to spend any money on new planes it will be for international flying, like the 777-200LR's not domestic narrow body.
 
Yes, I'm certain that in this economy Delta is eager to go spend a lot of money on used MD-80's and hire a bunch of pilots just to replace RJ's.

The MD-90s that are being looked at by Delta cost less than half what an RJ costs and has significantly lower CASM and much lower fuel burn per passenger mile.

Some routes will be cut, others will have reduced frequency, but the RJ ain't going away any time soon.

Not all of them, but many are.


Notice that Delta's emphasis is on expanding international flying. That is where the money is.

Yep.

Domestic narrow body flying is a necessary evil required to fill the seats on the bigger planes otherwise it's a loser. If Delta is going to spend any money on new planes it will be for international flying, like the 777-200LR's not domestic narrow body.

Delta will be taking delivery of 10 B737-700s in the next 18 months. Besides the previously announced 35 in the last conference call how many additional RJs do you think DAL will be parking in the same 18 month period.
 
Delta will be taking delivery of 10 B737-700s in the next 18 months. Besides the previously announced 35 in the last conference call how many additional RJs do you think DAL will be parking in the same 18 month period.

That's not the same as ALL RJ's going bye-bye.

They're still be 70 and 90-seat RJ deliveries in the future.

The <50-seat segment of airline ops will decrease.
The >70-seat segment of airline ops will increase.

Sad, but true.
 
That's not the same as ALL RJ's going bye-bye.

They're still be 70 and 90-seat RJ deliveries in the future.

The <50-seat segment of airline ops will decrease.
The >70-seat segment of airline ops will increase.

Sad, but true.


The 50 seat segment will decrease at CAL but there will be no 70 seaters flying around with fanjets in the near future. Lots of Dash8Q400's seating 74 though. The next step up will be B737's for years to come.
 
The CASM of RJs has always been greater than larger aircraft. The 90 seater is more efficient than the 70 seater which is more efficient than the 50 seater (jets to jets, not jets to props).
The 737 is more efficient than the 90 seat RJ.

In the last downturn, the airlines did not want to sacrifice schedule frequency so they downguaged to RJs. But they have since found that many of their best customers HATE RJs. Even the 70 seaters. I'm a United 1K; most of my office are mid-tier or better frequent flyers with American and United. They all hate RJs, so it isn't just me.
Also, fuel costs were not this high during the last downturn, so downguaging, while more expensive, seemed like a better alternative than reducing flight frequency.

I think that this time around, you'll see schedule reductions with upgrading certain flights rather than downgrading. For instance, a city served three times daily by a 70 seater will now be served twice by a 737. The approximate same number of seats will serve the city pair, but at a reduced CASM.
 
Sounds good in theory, but where are you going to get all these new 737's (or any narrow body aircraft) to replace the rj? New 737's are currently in pretty high demand.
 
Sounds good in theory, but where are you going to get all these new 737's (or any narrow body aircraft) to replace the rj? New 737's are currently in pretty high demand.

No new aircraft. Block hour reductions. The 737s come from routes now being flown by 757s with less frequency. Wingtip flight schedules disappear.
Airline flight schedules are a huge jigsaw puzzle. There is no way that I could outline in a page of posts how this would be accomplished, but it's NOT going to involve additional aircraft. There isn't going to be a lot of CapEx going forward, and any airline purchasing new aircraft is simply moving toward bankruptcy at a faster pace than their rivals. Demand for 737s and all other new aircraft is going to disappear.
Not only will airlines cancel expansion plans, those that try to keep them will find that investment capital is no longer available. Are you aware of the ramifications of Bear Stearns' problems which FINALLY came to light on Friday? Do you think that they're the only one? Hint - watch Lehman Brothers; they're next.

And stop thinking in a vacuum; every guage of aircraft is going to be effected by scheduling changes from a 747-400 down to the 19 seater propjob.
 
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