Frontier

[AnimalTale]

I think hiring will commence in the future (dec/jan). When? I dont know. But if you do the math, we will need to hire due to anticipated aircraft deliveries.

Company is weeding out a lot of expensive issues at this time, ie 737, crewtransitions, sabre, lax etc. IMHO, I think F9 will be profitable in the near future once this expensive year is up and away.

Also for a side note, I was called by skeds last night. They wanted to Junior man me. I am a line holder and havebeen at F9 for a little over a year. So i too agree with crashpad in the utilization of our crews.

I think hiring has ceased, to help bring down operating costs for now.



Cya

 

[VABB]

I took a few minutes to review Frontier's 10-K filing from last year and came up with some observations. Note that I'm not really trained in business, reading 10-K's or much else really, but all that aside I found

1) Competition in Denver from primarily United (bankruptcy protection as mentioned), but also other carriers. Declining prices of ticket fares due to competition. It said their average ticket price went from something like $132 to $109 in one year 2002-2003.

2) Significant debt load and growing. Looks like it's due mainly to aircraft acquisitions, so this may not necessarily be a bad thing.

3) Higher cost of Denver as main hub. Not sure how much truth there is in this, but it looked like a factor.

4) Costs associated with transition to Airbus fleet.

Overall, it seems the whole thing boiled down to supply-and-demand, de-regulation and increased competition. Guess that's true for everyone these days.

Competition has always been stiff in Denver. Now, it is much harder that United has some advantages being in Ch. 11 that Frontier does not.

Regarding the debt: When is debt not a bad thing? It isn't. The less debt that a company has, the more revenue dollars it gets to keep for itself. It's also not a good sign that the debt load is growing, because that is taking a chunk out of it's equity. An airline obviously needs airplanes to stay in business, and new ones are nice. But, as long as they are leveraged, Frontier better hope like crazy that they can fill those seats, and, fill them at prices that will at least meet their operating costs. Those new Airbuses can turn from cash-cows to anchors in a short amount of time. Also, as ticket prices from the competition is lowered, those aircraft lease payments still remain where they were. And, it only takes a few years before those new Airbuses become old Airbuses, especially when the overhauls and the heavy maintenance checks come due.

Transitioning to the Airbuses is another major cost issue. From simulators (or facilities) to instructors, dispatchers, maintenance, in-flight, just to name a few. You also have to stock your maintenance facilities with parts. Frontier would have been better off to keep the 737's for a while longer and integrate the Airbus slower and at a rate they could handle.

It doesen't look as good as it did a year ago. Look for some consolidation to start taking place within the next year to 5 years. You will see a few of the legacies possibly involved in buyouts or mergers, and you will see the same among the LCC's. Unfortunately for Frontier, I think they are going to be on the selling end of the deal. Look for America West to be the most likely candidate to purchase them someday.

 

[crashpad]

VABB;

I just hurt my knee in an accident and I'm in serious pain.
Could you share some of those drugs you're taking to help ease the pain? Thanks.

 

[jetalc]

VABB -

I have $10 that I would like to spend on some lottery tickets tonight - would you mind looking in that amazingly insightful, all-knowing crystal ball and letting me know which numbers to pick for Powerball? Your grasp of the industry is certainly amazing, as is your "knowledge" of operations at Frontier. Wow.