Frontier will ground 7 planes and reduce by 17%

[zonker]

Gerbil Lee

:laugh:

 

[stratus72]

I've seen it several times. It always hits by surprise, probably because a slow workup to a shutdown chases customers and vendors away.

You guys spun the news about the German bank waiving loan covenants on your spare part collateral, but that was only one in a whole field of land-mines.

In the end, your bondholders are the ones resting Frontier's testicles in their fist. There are all sorts of covenants, or loan requirements that allow senior lenders the ability to 'call' a loan with no notice. BK court offers a lot of protection, but things can go south very fast.

I suspect your CEO is "dialing for dollars", trying to get another business (hopefully an airline) interested in partnering up and weathering the storm.

Good luck though. Although I'm doom-and-gloom, that doesn't mean I can't put myself in the shoes of guys quivering about their next paycheck and health insurance for their kids.

Been there, done that. My only advice is to be proactive, don't wait for the guillotine to drop.

Although trite, "Who moved my cheese" is an excellent review of how standing in one spot while the world collapses around you is not always the best choice you can make.

The cheese moved, don't worry about fault, just go find some new cheese.

I agree, we shouldn't stand here with our heads in the sand. I still see hope, we're not dead yet. You're right, I could wake up one morning and hear the news of liquidation.

 

[vetrider]

I agree, we shouldn't stand here with our heads in the sand. I still see hope, we're not dead yet. You're right, I could wake up one morning and hear the news of liquidation.

If anyone can figure a way out of this, it is you guys. I'm optimistic for you and pulling for you in my thoughts.

Look on the bright side, at least you weren't infected by the nastiest of diseases, like my airline(AWA) was.
You've got a fighting chance, I'm not so sure about me. Yea, there's a little cash for awhile, but......

You guys have a fine outfit and are all pulling together.

 

[stratus72]

If anyone can figure a way out of this, it is you guys. I'm optimistic for you and pulling for you in my thoughts.

Look on the bright side, at least you weren't infected by the nastiest of diseases, like my airline was(AWA).
You've got a fighting chance, I'm not so sure about me. Yea, there's a little cash for awhile, but......

I agree, I think we have a good chance of pulling this off. Good luck to you.

 

[Colonel Savage]

...I'm asking for details. Numbers, financial data, DIP prospects, etc...

I think the most anyone on these boards can offer you is an honest "gut check" on how the overall situation looks from an "economic layman's" position. A lot of the things you're asking for are in large part propietary information while the company seeks additional capital. After all, this is a rumor/opinion board.

I'm a big fan of Frontier. I was in DEN from '77-80 for school, and got to know many people at the origional FL. I wanted to fly for FL, but was still way underqualified by the time I had to leave DEN and return back east.

I'm glad F9 has had some growth and sucuess the past several years, and that everyone there has enjoyed much of the family atmosphere that was so much a part of FL. It will pain me much like it did in '86 if it doesn't work out. Godspeed.

 

[Skybus]

Numbers can be spun anyway you wish. I am not a CFO only a lowly pilot. All that I said was history has not been kind to companies in your position. I too worked for a company in similar situation (BN) and then too was much younger and full of "spirit" and optimisim. That can only help your cause.

Good luck

 

[stratus72]

Numbers can be spun anyway you wish. I am not a CFO only a lowly pilot. All that I said was history has not been kind to companies in your position. I too worked for a company in similar situation (BN) and then too was much younger and full of "spirit" and optimisim. That can only help your cause.

Good luck

No offense was taken. I was just curious if people could shed light on the situation at hand. From the outside looking in i would think we're toast. However, based on the info we get from the company, union, etc... we have a fighting chance. Who knows?

Good luck to us all.

 

[Fubijaakr]

The only problem is the Company won't give you or the Union the real info. And, if the do give it to the Union, it will be accompanied by a confidentiality agreement. So they won't be able to pass the info on to the average line Joe.

Too often, the rank and file doesn't know the doors are closing until they wake up and see it on the news.

 

[radarlove]

No offense was taken. I was just curious if people could shed light on the situation at hand. From the outside looking in i would think we're toast. However, based on the info we get from the company, union, etc... we have a fighting chance. Who knows?

Good luck to us all.

Usually the creditor's committee requires the bankrupt company counsel to set up a website where all relevant documents, such as court filings, SEC filings, etc. are available. I would hazard a guess that one exists for Frontier, but you'll have to dig it up, start by the web site of your company's BK counsel.

Read every SEC doc cover to cover. The most recent one is a 5/28 8-k filing.

Find the website, if it exists and take a look.

However, with LUV moving into Denver with the rapidity shown, I suspect that LUV management is signaling their belief in the longevity of Frontier. I'd believe those guys over a message board.

 

[TAWS]

^
^
^
www.frontierairlines.com/restructure

 

[radarlove]

Oh yeah, there's one more point: working for a BK company sucks. It sucks hard. Everything sucks, not just the uncertainty but the new consultants they bring in to fire people, the upper management's belief that if you just quit, it would be fine with them, the way the rest of the industry treats you...

It's like living in a bad neighborhood. It's easier just to move than to make it into a good neighborhood.

It doesn't get better, either. If and when Frontier exits BK, it's not like you're all going to get raises and a fruit plate.

The way BK works, if it's a successful reorganization, is that the bondholders turn their debt into shares of the new company, let's call it Frontier III. They take it public on the stock exchange and do their best to unload the shares.

So now you have owners, and a board of directors that wants nothing more than to rid their hands of you and is glancing toward the door the whole time.

It's the polar opposite of something like when JBLU went public, all the shareholders were ecstatic and investors bought new shares hand over fist.

There really is nothing to look forward to. Think about Eastern. TWA. Skybus. Gemini. I'm trying to think of a single (!) BK sucess story and honestly, I can't. USAir maybe? They're still breathing.

Pan Am. Nope. American International Airways. Nope. Zantop.

I could keep going, but I know this industy backward and forward and I can't think of a single shining start that went BK and came out in enviable shape.

 

[radarlove]

One last thing: your pilot's union is on the creditor's committee, they should give you the address of the creditor's website if there is one and should be keeping you apprised.

EDIT: oops, didn't see that the address got posted.

Go read the entire "first day orders" then the docket.

Almost nobody actually reads the stuff cover to cover, so you'll know more than anyone other than the consultants and upper management.

 

[stratus72]

One last thing: your pilot's union is on the creditor's committee, they should give you the address of the creditor's website if there is one and should be keeping you apprised.

EDIT: oops, didn't see that the address got posted.

Go read the entire "first day orders" then the docket.

Almost nobody actually reads the stuff cover to cover, so you'll know more than anyone other than the consultants and upper management.

Good suggestions. I've found some of the info but I'll keep looking. I agree, if we survive it wont be the same F9. I'd like to think it would be better than unemployment.

 

[Charlie Brown]

Oh yeah, there's one more point: working for a BK company sucks. It sucks hard. Everything sucks, not just the uncertainty but the new consultants they bring in to fire people, the upper management's belief that if you just quit, it would be fine with them, the way the rest of the industry treats you...

It's like living in a bad neighborhood. It's easier just to move than to make it into a good neighborhood.

It doesn't get better, either. If and when Frontier exits BK, it's not like you're all going to get raises and a fruit plate.

The way BK works, if it's a successful reorganization, is that the bondholders turn their debt into shares of the new company, let's call it Frontier III. They take it public on the stock exchange and do their best to unload the shares.

So now you have owners, and a board of directors that wants nothing more than to rid their hands of you and is glancing toward the door the whole time.

It's the polar opposite of something like when JBLU went public, all the shareholders were ecstatic and investors bought new shares hand over fist.

There really is nothing to look forward to. Think about Eastern. TWA. Skybus. Gemini. I'm trying to think of a single (!) BK sucess story and honestly, I can't. USAir maybe? They're still breathing.

Pan Am. Nope. American International Airways. Nope. Zantop.

I could keep going, but I know this industy backward and forward and I can't think of a single shining start that went BK and came out in enviable shape.

Continental had successful reorganization some years ago. Reference: Gordo Bethune's "From Worst to First" book.

 

[Charlie Brown]

Foolish to say we have no chance and SW is taking over Denver....not buying it.

Is it? Honest question. I think you may be suprised what SWA is capable of. Just study the company's history.

Best of luck to you guys/gals......

 

[WSurf]

Continental had successful reorganization some years ago. Reference: Gordo Bethune's "From Worst to First" book.

True, but not in a time when oil is a buck forty.

 

[puddlejumper101]

i think SWA in DEN has to do with UAL more so than F9. Let's face it when both the dominant carriers at DEN are F9 and UAL...well no wonder SWA management is doing what they are doing. UAL is shrinking fast...either way they see a win win...even if both carriers survive.

 

[stratus72]

i think SWA in DEN has to do with UAL more so than F9. Let's face it when both the dominant carriers at DEN are F9 and UAL...well no wonder SWA management is doing what they are doing. UAL is shrinking fast...either way they see a win win...even if both carriers survive.

yep..another reason I think we have a fighting chance.

 

[radarlove]

Continental had successful reorganization some years ago. Reference: Gordo Bethune's "From Worst to First" book.

Good one. Forgot about that one. That's one out of about thirty.

 

[Wesb737fo]

No offense was taken. I was just curious if people could shed light on the situation at hand. From the outside looking in i would think we're toast. However, based on the info we get from the company, union, etc... we have a fighting chance. Who knows?

Good luck to us all.

By no means am I wishing to put a damper on your chances of survival. I read that you have seen some numbers that indicate you have a good chance of making through this.

The only caution I would add is that you ask yourself if you believe in the business plan going forward. Who is giving you the information and do you really believe them.

I too, used to work at an airline that went head to head with SWA. In the end I hung around waiting for some grand plan (as we were told) to be enacted that would save us. Even after I left, I still never believed that their liquidation was a possibility. But there I was a few months ago staring a the news ticker reading about the demise of a great group of guys.

By waiting around, all I really did was waiste about of year hanging on when I should have been moving on. Unfortunately, now, there doesn't seem to be too many places to move on to.

I'm sorry if my pessimism adds to you anxiety. I'm not picking on F-9, I think we are all in deep sh!t right now. Maybe you guys will get bought out and see a fair integration somewhere. I really do hope that fuel prices drop and the economic conditions dictate that we all get to keep out jobs (with better contracts). I'll be in Vegas next week, should I bet on oil dropping?

 

[stratus72]

By no means am I wishing to put a damper on your chances of survival. I read that you have seen some numbers that indicate you have a good chance of making through this.

The only caution I would add is that you ask yourself if you believe in the business plan going forward. Who is giving you the information and do you really believe them.

I too, used to work at an airline that went head to head with SWA. In the end I hung around waiting for some grand plan (as we were told) to be enacted that would save us. Even after I left, I still never believed that their liquidation was a possibility. But there I was a few months ago staring a the news ticker reading about the demise of a great group of guys.

By waiting around, all I really did was waiste about of year hanging on when I should have been moving on. Unfortunately, now, there doesn't seem to be too many places to move on to.

I'm sorry if my pessimism adds to you anxiety. I'm not picking on F-9, I think we are all in deep sh!t right now. Maybe you guys will get bought out and see a fair integration somewhere. I really do hope that fuel prices drop and the economic conditions dictate that we all get to keep out jobs (with better contracts). I'll be in Vegas next week, should I bet on oil dropping?

I'd like to believe we have a shot; however, i could see what happened to your former airline happening to us. I don't think our management and Union is feeding us a line of crap. They never once said we were out of the woods. Infact, what little we hear isn't super positive, but does point to us surviving. That in itself says alot to me. We're all unsure of the future. Just hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

 

[Old School 737]

Buddy of mine is a CPT there at Frontier and he had the new CEO on his jumpseat a while ago. Buddy asks if they are going to sell more airplanes than the original 3. Response was that they were not going to shrink their way to profitability. Now they are selling more aircraft and my buddy has lost confidence and is looking for a overseas job before the rest of the pilots snag them up.

 

[bluepost]

From an outsider looking in....everyone at F9 should be looking for a job. Not an attack...I like Frontier and know a couple guys there...but your too close to the fire. If Frontier goes down it will be lucky to be front page news on the money section, except in Denver they will dissappear without a trace.

F9 SIC = 8 Track repairman in 1982...took my dad until 1993 to believe 8 tracks were not coming back...

 

[Fubijaakr]

I was in the Navy using the F9 CV-580 sim the day they busted the first time. We were there on day 3 of a 5 day program.

The first two days were ops normal. No indication that anything was wrong at F9. Day 3 we showed up at 6 am and the gates were locked.

 

[T-prop]

Nevermind

 

[Donsa320]

I was in the Navy using the F9 CV-580 sim the day they busted the first time. We were there on day 3 of a 5 day program.

The first two days were ops normal. No indication that anything was wrong at F9. Day 3 we showed up at 6 am and the gates were locked.

Wow, never knew there was a simulator for the CV-580. We did everything in the airplane at North Central. What level sim was it, if you know? Full motion, landing credits, etc.?

DC

 

[Lampshade]

Operating loss for the month of May was $16.5mil, with a net loss of $22.0mil.

Cash on hand at the end of May was $110.1mil, up from $99.8mil from the end of April, and reflects a $59.1mil gain from the sale of property. Of the cash and cash equivalents, $100.5mil is considered restricted. (10 mil unrestricted )

This loss is in addition to previously reported $16.5mil foss for the last 20 days of April.

Can anybody confirm this?

 

[radarlove]

That's two weeks of unrestricted cash left at the current burn rate.

$110 million seems like a lot of money, but not when you have to get creditor permission to spent $100 million of it and you're burning almost $17 million per month.

I think the fat lady just left the dressing room.

 

[Lampshade]

They may have some cash in assets that they can sell and they have there leases paid 60 days out I think. So we'll see.

 

[labbats]

I hate to see F9 do poorly. I've jumpseated a few times with them and spoken with several others over the years. Great people and a great airline.

Yet it seems to me that selling airplanes after going bankrupt is a lot like selling off Park Place and Reading Railroad in Monopoly. You are buying time but the odds are against you. Nevertheless it would be great to see Frontier make it.