Frontier predicts wider loss than forecast.

[maxblast72]

You forgot to mention the pilots subsidizing this growth with below industry standard wages and no pay raises for, what?, like 5 years?

So you going to dig on American too? They had a nice "B" scale for their new employees during the 1980's. Allowed Crandall a cost structure to go buy 260 MD-80's and lower his average CASM by bringing on more "B" scale employees.

Yes, this has been the case at Airtran for the last 10 years, but the votes in 2007 have basically stated that the junior guys have had enough of the "B" scale at Airtran.

 

[jke406]

deleted

 

[waveflyer]

Will F9 survive? If I was in vegas my money would be on "no". Sad, but true.

Do I want a national seniority list now that I made my bed here at DIA. Nope. Do I piss and moan about the professionals at SWA. NO. Did skybus, or virgin or anyone else fack me. NO. I am here because I love the people and I have never had a better QOL. Period. The seniority list is filled with some of the most interesting, skilled, and personable people in the industry. Unfortunately, our HQ isn't quite at stacked.

That was a great post.

I'm not FOR a national list as much as everyone thinks. Kind of flies in the face of capitalism. What i'm saying is that if you sit, sit. if you stand, stand. right now- we're in a in-between land that has us fly under contentious conditions for less than market wages. I'm pointing out the problem- The solution can't happen until the problem is recognized. I've got a hundred different solutions in various degrees=

1)get rid of first year pay- if pilots knew that the minimum first year pay at the next airline was a livable wage-they would be more willing to walk away from their airline, vote to keep pay up even when their company presses them that it will put the airline at risk, and/or vote to strike

2) Have ALPA lobby for increased regulatory standards for certain positions- Increased requirements for captains and fo's=- and the larger the plane=more responsibility= more experience required to fly it- the public will get behind it-they vote w/ their wallet in ignorance- none are comfortable w/ overly young pilots- this increases demand for experienced pilots throughout the ranks
(again- this isn't a pissing contest between who's capable and who's not- but you have to admit that when companies see 25 yr olds successfully captain large jets- it takes away leverage)

3) have compatible companies combine seniority lists- two at a time at first- frame it as diversifying your portfolio- as much as you like to think that you do your job better and thus are responsible for the success of your company- your success is much more dependent on decisions made by your leaders.... get over the pride and look at the leverage you gain when you merge lists= look at the flexibility of increased domiciles and type of flying=- access to different contracts- think of the increased unity.

99) full blown national list--(but ask yourself if you aren't assuming how this will actually work before you shoot it down.)

you guys just need to open your minds a bit- In any case- we have to start acting to increase leverage in all it's forms- stop the infighting and come together..

There are a number of things we can do to raise leverage- i'm sorry for the alpa attack- i just don't see a national plan- just infighting- and very little that addresses leverage in such dynamic times.

PCL- that comment wasn't aimed directly at you
Rez- noted and being done- that doesn't mean the conversation shouldn't be had and fleshed out here.

 

[CitationUltra]

Frontier predicts wider loss than forecast
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DENVER (AP) — Frontier Airlines on Tuesday warned it would post a wider-than-expected loss in the third quarter because of storm-related expenses in December and fewer passengers on some routes to sunny destinations.
It was the second time in the past month that Frontier has revised its forecast for the October-December quarter. It predicted a pretax loss ranging between 78 cents and 88 cents a share excluding special items. That compared with Dec. 5 guidance of a pretax loss of 58 cents to 68 cents per share excluding special items.

RELATED NEWS: Southwest to grow in Denver
"We are further revising the guidance we provided at the beginning of December because of higher-than-expected operating expenses related to the winter storms at our Denver hub and throughout the Midwest in late December," Sean Menke, Frontier's chief executive officer, said in a statement.

He also noted traffic was weaker than anticipated on some non-Denver routes to sunny destinations such as Memphis-to-Orlando. The airline previously announced it will eliminate those routes as of Thursday.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Tuesday | Denver | Southwest | December | Frontier Airlines | Denver International Airport
Frontier's stock fell 20 cents, or 4.1%, to close at $4.65 a share in Tuesday trading.

The carrier revised its guidance as it reported a 31.7% increase in revenue passenger miles for December, to 798.8 million from 606.7 million in December 2006.

Its occupancy rate increased to 72.6% from 68.2%. Mainline passenger revenue per available seat mile rose 8.1% to 8.39 cents from 7.76 cents in December 2006.

Frontier has been battered by skyrocketing fuel prices and aggressive competition at Denver International Airport, where it competes against United Airlines and Southwest. The competition has proven to benefit consumers with lower ticket prices and more choices.

The forecast came as rival Southwest Airlines Co. scheduled a Wednesday news conference where it is expected to announce an expanded flight schedule in Denver. A spokeswoman for Dallas-based Southwest declined comment until then.

Southwest has called Denver one of its fastest-growing cities, where it operates 56 daily flights to 16 cities, up from 13 flights to three locations when it re-entered the market in January 2006.

The article makes it sound as though Frontier were the only carrier "battered by high fuel prices."

The company also seems continually surprised and caught unawares by foul winter weather in Denver.

This company looks to me like a likely early casualty in the incipient industry shake-out.

 

[CitationUltra]

Why should a 20 year military pilot have to start at the bottom of the list, behind some 28 year old kid 1 year into their major? Insane, indeed.

Are you suggesting that the military pilot should carry his/her military time over into the commercial airlines?

 

[CitationUltra]

What kind of points would a civilian guy get for time spent in flying Cargo, Corporate or any other job they took while getting to a major?

This is the dumbest thread I've ever been apart of.

S.

If I am understanding the subtext here, I think what we're hearing is the suggestion that military pilots should somehow carry their military time to the airlines in the form of seniority. That is as absurd, actually more so, as the idea of a pilot of a defunct airline taking seniority to a new airline.

By the same faulty logic, I should be able to freely move about the industry, taking along my original date of hire, to whichever airline I chose, which would make me #1 at Continental.

 

[CitationUltra]

If you want to frame it that way to make a point then go ahead but dont try to make it seem like I was defending Frontier as a low cost carrier. I have friends there I feel bad for. I dont like the fact that SWA is doing to them what they have done to many legacies across the years. I would have prefered a national list in the fourties and no such thing as a LCC.

What "SWA is doing to them" is what every airline is doing or attempting to do to every other airline. It's called "competition" and it has been working it's inexorable way since 1978 when U.S. federal price-fixing ended.

I have sympathy for the F9 people, but it is inevitable that weak, poorly-managed and undercapitalized carriers will fail in the weeks and months ahead.

 

[USMC319]

The article makes it sound as though Frontier were the only carrier "battered by high fuel prices."
The company also seems continually surprised and caught unawares by foul winter weather in Denver.
This company looks to me like a likely early casualty in the incipient industry shake-out.

CitationUltra,
You predict F9's expeditious demise, but I wouldn't count them out just yet. They were predicted to have failed countless times before but they are still here. Not only are they still here but they have one of the best coach products in the industry.

SWA entered the Denver market over 2 years ago claiming that they would have 100 departures per day by years end. Now in their 3rd year they have announced their 74th. Is it good news for UAL and F9? No, but its the way it is. F9 is circling the wagons and they have one of the industry's rising stars as their new CEO. We will see. Maybe if he is unsuccessful you will be able to do your dance.

 

[jonjuan]

If I am understanding the subtext here, I think what we're hearing is the suggestion that military pilots should somehow carry their military time to the airlines in the form of seniority. That is as absurd, actually more so, as the idea of a pilot of a defunct airline taking seniority to a new airline.

Actually, that was my sarcastic point. Nothing like having to explain sarcasm.

 

[waveflyer]

What "SWA is doing to them" is what every airline is doing or attempting to do to every other airline. It's called "competition" and it has been working it's inexorable way since 1978 when U.S. federal price-fixing ended.

I have sympathy for the F9 people, but it is inevitable that weak, poorly-managed and undercapitalized carriers will fail in the weeks and months ahead.

Youre starting to get me ultra- this is exactly my point- Most pilots are conservative, free-market capitalist republicans- who believe in that until it comes to the airlines- then bail out their company in any number of ways in order to save their seniority. My problem is that it's usually the younger generation that gets sold out in the process.

1- release scope- who cares if the younger guys now have to stay in the regionals longer and junior guys get furloughed-
2- take enormous paycuts- emphasis on the domestic pay
3- slashing of work rules-emphasis on the domestic rules
4- B-scales, etc, etc

All of this is coerced out of us b/c we're so interested in protecting our seniority- i'm not afraid of competition - or of taking risks- and having there be consequences-- what i'm saying is that in our flying profession- we suffer way more than any other profession if those risks don't work out- and it takes away leverage from all of us.

 

[tico]

Off subject slightly: For the guys talking for an against a national seniority list you both have it wrong....There is no national seniority list per-say at the electricians or the plumbers or the carpenters or the steam fitters and so on.........There is however a system that you are rated on in terms of time in the business....Apprentice; Journeyman; Master....And it does not matter where you go-ANC-LAX-ORD-BOS-Mia etc....if you are a master you get paid as a master-even if you are a new guy. Your scale is attached to your union as are your health benefits and your retirement..........that is what a real national union would do.......Wont happen for us because most pilots are silver spoon crybaby upper middle class morons that cant get over themselves long enough to see the advantage of this type of system.....To bad pilots are not required to go labor in a real union for 5 years before they can get an atp............oops i spilled my beer....damnit

 

[inline]

Actually, that was my sarcastic point. Nothing like having to explain sarcasm.

If you have to explain it, you're not doing a very good job at it.

 

[CitationUltra]

CitationUltra,
You predict F9's expeditious demise, but I wouldn't count them out just yet. They were predicted to have failed countless times before but they are still here. Not only are they still here but they have one of the best coach products in the industry.

SWA entered the Denver market over 2 years ago claiming that they would have 100 departures per day by years end. Now in their 3rd year they have announced their 74th. Is it good news for UAL and F9? No, but its the way it is. F9 is circling the wagons and they have one of the industry's rising stars as their new CEO. We will see. Maybe if he is unsuccessful you will be able to do your dance.

I won't be dancing, or taking any pleasure in seeing Frontier fail.

But the earlier predictions of their demise you refer to occured at a time when they had a lot of cash on hand. They have a lot less now, and will have even less in a few months after SWA continues roughing them up in their only market--Denver. They may be circling the wagons, but they're circling them around a box with a lot less cash in it. As to the "coach product" it's meaningless. What they are enduring is a war of attrition--a price war. History has shown that there is no loyalty when price-point is at issue.

As to their CEO, he's a virtual unknown, but for the moment at least, seems willing and able to make the tough decisions.

 

[Megalops]

You mean when we started and had 250,000 in the bank?

 

[USMC319]

You mean when we started and had 250,000 in the bank?

Or the time we were a week away from liquidating during the WesternPacific fiasco? I like the odds much better now with a couple hundred million in the bank.