Fool reiterates the falling SWA model

[elag777]

Quote from ANDY

"I found the second tier airport argument without merit. JetBlue has started to go into busier airports such as LGA and is seeing their on time performance drop precipitously due to flying into them. LUV has been able to turn aircraft quickly due to avoiding saturated airports.
It's my understanding that the reason why LUV abandoned SFO was due to the poor operational performance out of there. (Side note- flying in and out of SFO will either kill Virgin America or they will relocate)."


Just my thoughts. Hasn't WN done just that with PHL and gambled with the 123 factor? (1 plane 2 clouds 3 hour delay) It seems tweaking the model is key to survival. I would describe PHL as "saturated" and some days can beat LGA hands down for delays. WN shows that when opportunity knocks they take the shot. Some of the highest RASM live in the philly area. Try buying a walk up LCC fare aka USairways. WN has like Jetblue departed somewhat from the original model and is not it seems afraid to color outside the lines.
:beer:

 

[canyonblue]

There are a lot of hard core unionists at SWAPA

Oh yea, I saw them on a milk carton.

 

[StopNTSing]

There are a lot of hard core unionists at SWAPA and they don't care what the company has done for them in the past, they want to know what are they doing for them now and in the future. What these people fail to realize is how good a job Gary & Co has done to keep the status quo going for much longer than it should have, and as a result they put a ton of cash in their pockets.

Lowecur, I'm consistently amazed at this image you have of SWAPA as some omnipotent, paragon of solidarity that will bring the company to its knees during our upcoming Section 6. I wish! The comments of one [alleged] SWA pilot not withstanding (7S3W7A), I'm here to tell you, once again, it just ain't so. SWAPA has a long & storied history of taking whatever the company is offering. Every time we sit down with the Company, it's our newest crop of pilots-moonlighting-as-labor-negotiators vs. their best-in-the-business-pros, and we get our clocks cleaned. I have absolutely no reason to believe it will be any different this time.

 

[SWAdude]

There are a lot of hard core unionists at SWAPA and they don't care what the company has done for them in the past, they want to know what are they doing for them now and in the future.

Where do you get your info? From 7s3w7a? (Who acts like we don't fly for the same airline.)

Back up this statement somehow. Because living in this environment I get a whole different picture.

Is it wrong to try and keep what you have? We don't have a back breaking contract in place. My prediction has been that the company will adjust to the expiration of the hedges and that has come to pass. (raising fares) As the legacies right themselves, we will also benefit from a healthier industry.

 

[SWAdude]

The comments of one [alleged] SWA pilot not withstanding (7S3W7A)

He is not one of our pilots. He failed a simple test a couple months ago.

He curiously does use some correct terms though. My guess he is one of our boy stewardess's.

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur, I'm consistently amazed at this image you have of SWAPA as some omnipotent, paragon of solidarity that will bring the company to its knees during our upcoming Section 6. I wish! The comments of one [alleged] SWA pilot not withstanding (7S3W7A), I'm here to tell you, once again, it just ain't so. SWAPA has a long & storied history of taking whatever the company is offering. Then why was Sect 6 put on the back burner? Do you think maybe the company would have liked to get the contract out of the way so that they can go about the business of long term strategy planning?.... I think so. Every time we sit down with the Company, it's our newest crop of pilots-moonlighting-as-labor-negotiators vs. their best-in-the-business-pros, and we get our clocks cleaned. I have absolutely no reason to believe it will be any different this time.

Listen, I hope I'm wrong and you guys fold like the napkin your portraying. My sense tells me differently, and I believe you will work without a contract for at least 2 years until things are resolved. Is this bad? Would you call extending the existing highest paid pilots contract another few years good for the company? I know one thing....it's good for the pilots to drag it out and put a little more of that fuel hedge money in their pockets.

imp:

 

[lowecur]

Where do you get your info? From 7s3w7a? (Who acts like we don't fly for the same airline.)

Back up this statement somehow. Because living in this environment I get a whole different picture.

Is it wrong to try and keep what you have? No, not as long as operational money is paying you. Right now fuel hedges are painting a mirage of financial stability. We don't have a back breaking contract in place. That will be determined by WNs ability to raise fares to match the expirations. Low fares are your meal ticket, and without them you will stagnate. My prediction has been that the company will adjust to the expiration of the hedges and that has come to pass. (raising fares) As the legacies right themselves, we will also benefit from a healthier industry.

You paint a rosey picture of industry-wide compatibility. Reality and history have said differently. There isn't a legacy or LCC in this country that would not love to have WN at a competitive disadvantage.

imp:

 

[Jim Smyth]

Lowecur, you are fairly informed when it comes to the aviation industry but you have some facts and hunches about SWA wrong.

Most Pilots I have flown with in both seat over the last 14 years have the big picture. They know what a good deal we have at SWA and this isnt new to us. It has always been that way from almost day 1! Its something you cant understand until you are working for the company. It just looks real good now for the guys that are on the outside looking in since everyone else is in the finacial toilet. I have no doubt that the Pilots will do "whatever" is required to make the company turn a profit. If we continue to make money, Southwest buys more airplanes. We buy more airplanes we need more Pilots. If that continues the big pay raise comes from moving 4 feet the the left side of the cockpit. Growth is key and it hasnt changed in many, many years.

So our fuel hedges are loosing steam. It does hurt but we have the advantage to raise fares like we just did to cover the 600 million shortfall this year. Our gap between what we need to charge to make a profit compared to the other carriers is at historically high levels. If the loads come back to where it was prior to pre 911 levels we would be making 2 Billion a year profit. I predict that baring any major airline problems either internally or externally for us that 2006 we will be posting the highest profit in our companies history.

 

[lowecur]

Jim

Lowecur, you are fairly informed when it comes to the aviation industry but you have some facts and hunches about SWA wrong.

Most Pilots I have flown with in both seat over the last 14 years have the big picture. They know what a good deal we have at SWA and this isnt new to us. It has always been that way from almost day 1! Its something you cant understand until you are working for the company. It just looks real good now for the guys that are on the outside looking in since everyone else is in the finacial toilet. I have no doubt that the Pilots will do "whatever" is required to make the company turn a profit. If we continue to make money, Southwest buys more airplanes. We buy more airplanes we need more Pilots. If that continues the big pay raise comes from moving 4 feet the the left side of the cockpit. Growth is key and it hasnt changed in many, many years.

So our fuel hedges are loosing steam. It does hurt but we have the advantage to raise fares like we just did to cover the 600 million shortfall this year. Our gap between what we need to charge to make a profit compared to the other carriers is at historically high levels. If the loads come back to where it was prior to pre 911 levels we would be making 2 Billion a year profit. I predict that baring any major airline problems either internally or externally for us that 2006 we will be posting the highest profit in our companies history.

I assume you need 51% to pass a new TA, so let's hope you're right and most of the pilots think along those lines.

imp:

 

[Jim Smyth]

I have only been through 1 real contract and 2 extensions since I have been with SWA and non of those were even close. But we do have a newer generation/mindset coming on board. Hopefully the interview process is still doing its job picking the same can do attitudes they have always looked for.