Fool reiterates the falling SWA model

[lowecur]

Lowecur, I'm consistently amazed at this image you have of SWAPA as some omnipotent, paragon of solidarity that will bring the company to its knees during our upcoming Section 6. I wish! The comments of one [alleged] SWA pilot not withstanding (7S3W7A), I'm here to tell you, once again, it just ain't so. SWAPA has a long & storied history of taking whatever the company is offering. Then why was Sect 6 put on the back burner? Do you think maybe the company would have liked to get the contract out of the way so that they can go about the business of long term strategy planning?.... I think so. Every time we sit down with the Company, it's our newest crop of pilots-moonlighting-as-labor-negotiators vs. their best-in-the-business-pros, and we get our clocks cleaned. I have absolutely no reason to believe it will be any different this time.

Listen, I hope I'm wrong and you guys fold like the napkin your portraying. My sense tells me differently, and I believe you will work without a contract for at least 2 years until things are resolved. Is this bad? Would you call extending the existing highest paid pilots contract another few years good for the company? I know one thing....it's good for the pilots to drag it out and put a little more of that fuel hedge money in their pockets.

imp:

 

[lowecur]

Where do you get your info? From 7s3w7a? (Who acts like we don't fly for the same airline.)

Back up this statement somehow. Because living in this environment I get a whole different picture.

Is it wrong to try and keep what you have? No, not as long as operational money is paying you. Right now fuel hedges are painting a mirage of financial stability. We don't have a back breaking contract in place. That will be determined by WNs ability to raise fares to match the expirations. Low fares are your meal ticket, and without them you will stagnate. My prediction has been that the company will adjust to the expiration of the hedges and that has come to pass. (raising fares) As the legacies right themselves, we will also benefit from a healthier industry.

You paint a rosey picture of industry-wide compatibility. Reality and history have said differently. There isn't a legacy or LCC in this country that would not love to have WN at a competitive disadvantage.

imp:

 

[Jim Smyth]

Lowecur, you are fairly informed when it comes to the aviation industry but you have some facts and hunches about SWA wrong.

Most Pilots I have flown with in both seat over the last 14 years have the big picture. They know what a good deal we have at SWA and this isnt new to us. It has always been that way from almost day 1! Its something you cant understand until you are working for the company. It just looks real good now for the guys that are on the outside looking in since everyone else is in the finacial toilet. I have no doubt that the Pilots will do "whatever" is required to make the company turn a profit. If we continue to make money, Southwest buys more airplanes. We buy more airplanes we need more Pilots. If that continues the big pay raise comes from moving 4 feet the the left side of the cockpit. Growth is key and it hasnt changed in many, many years.

So our fuel hedges are loosing steam. It does hurt but we have the advantage to raise fares like we just did to cover the 600 million shortfall this year. Our gap between what we need to charge to make a profit compared to the other carriers is at historically high levels. If the loads come back to where it was prior to pre 911 levels we would be making 2 Billion a year profit. I predict that baring any major airline problems either internally or externally for us that 2006 we will be posting the highest profit in our companies history.

 

[lowecur]

Jim

Lowecur, you are fairly informed when it comes to the aviation industry but you have some facts and hunches about SWA wrong.

Most Pilots I have flown with in both seat over the last 14 years have the big picture. They know what a good deal we have at SWA and this isnt new to us. It has always been that way from almost day 1! Its something you cant understand until you are working for the company. It just looks real good now for the guys that are on the outside looking in since everyone else is in the finacial toilet. I have no doubt that the Pilots will do "whatever" is required to make the company turn a profit. If we continue to make money, Southwest buys more airplanes. We buy more airplanes we need more Pilots. If that continues the big pay raise comes from moving 4 feet the the left side of the cockpit. Growth is key and it hasnt changed in many, many years.

So our fuel hedges are loosing steam. It does hurt but we have the advantage to raise fares like we just did to cover the 600 million shortfall this year. Our gap between what we need to charge to make a profit compared to the other carriers is at historically high levels. If the loads come back to where it was prior to pre 911 levels we would be making 2 Billion a year profit. I predict that baring any major airline problems either internally or externally for us that 2006 we will be posting the highest profit in our companies history.

I assume you need 51% to pass a new TA, so let's hope you're right and most of the pilots think along those lines.

imp:

 

[Jim Smyth]

I have only been through 1 real contract and 2 extensions since I have been with SWA and non of those were even close. But we do have a newer generation/mindset coming on board. Hopefully the interview process is still doing its job picking the same can do attitudes they have always looked for.

 

[7S3W7A]

Where do you get your info? From 7s3w7a? (Who acts like we don't fly for the same airline.)

Back up this statement somehow. Because living in this environment I get a whole different picture.

Is it wrong to try and keep what you have? We don't have a back breaking contract in place. My prediction has been that the company will adjust to the expiration of the hedges and that has come to pass. (raising fares) As the legacies right themselves, we will also benefit from a healthier industry.

As usual you are dumb and wrong. 3 questions were asked and the silence from the usual suspects was deafening.

What lowecur says is right on. Someone said above we "always get our clocks cleaned in negotiations". This is the exact greed I am talking about. We have leading industry pay and work rules yet we have gotten our clocks cleaned.

We are destined to follow the path of the legacies with jerks like that in our pilot group. It's clear the days of a humble airline are long gone. I feel for our young group of new hires who will be out on the street when we can't cover our lessening fuel hedge.

 

[7S3W7A]

Listen, I hope I'm wrong and you guys fold like the napkin your portraying. My sense tells me differently, and I believe you will work without a contract for at least 2 years until things are resolved. Is this bad? Would you call extending the existing highest paid pilots contract another few years good for the company? I know one thing....it's good for the pilots to drag it out and put a little more of that fuel hedge money in their pockets.

imp:

Interesting you say this. We currently are having a rift among the pilot group to have a vote to postpone negotiations for one year. Unfortunately the greed has gotten the best of them and the union heads are refusing the will of the group. We are teetering on mutiny.

 

[SWAdude]

Interesting you say this. We currently are having a rift among the pilot group to have a vote to postpone negotiations for one year. Unfortunately the greed has gotten the best of them and the union heads are refusing the will of the group. We are teetering on mutiny.

Are you high imposture?

Totally untrue.

This is the best flamebait I think I've seen though.

 

[7S3W7A]

Are you high imposture?

Totally untrue.

This is the best flamebait I think I've seen though.

Do I have to cut and paste the thread from SWAPA.org or should I just let you continue to be an a$$hole?

 

[Dave Benjamin]

Do I have to cut and paste the thread from SWAPA.org or should I just let you continue to be an a$$hole?

Guys arguing on a SWAPA.org forum may not represent the views of thousands of other pilots. I would recommend against posting the thread because that may violate the TOS for that website and someone may figure out who you are. The SWAPA website like any other pilot group website is not intended for broad dissemination. One of you WN guys correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Skyboy722]

"teetering on mutiny"??? WHAT?

 

[pedropcola]

That guy is a clown. The only mutiny going on is in his head. Either that or he is an OAK guy.

 

[pedropcola]

Just kidding OAK guys!

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Interesting you say this. We currently are having a rift among the pilot group to have a vote to postpone negotiations for one year. Unfortunately the greed has gotten the best of them and the union heads are refusing the will of the group. We are teetering on mutiny.

I am not letting anything out of the bag by saying this, but the so called mutiny thing is a long standing tradition within the SWAPA group and is a good thing. Ask the ALPA guys how they like the MEC making the decision whether a contract proposal meets his standards before sending it to the pilot group. The ALPA pilots are always held hostage to their elected leadership, IMHO. I'd rather have the threat of mutiny keep our leadership more representative and humble.

You remember how the negotiations went last time, right?? The differences of opinion were not out of hand and it resulted in a good compromise.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

As for the topic of this thread---The Motley Fool is for investors, not employees. That said, they "reiterate" their lack of faith in SWA in favor of JetBlue as JetBlue stock falls and SWA stock has risen. 19 to 11 and 14 to 17. I would say these "Fools" are wrong at least as much as they are right.

Keep that in perspective and watch your wallet around those guys.

BTW, they seem to be completely ignoring the up and comer here that is the real player, Airtran.

And why no articles about Alaska??