FLYi's business plan is falling apart (unfortunately)

[On Your Six]

JI wasnt a LCC.

True, but as I recall they weren't the most expensive carrier given that I used to fly them. The fact that Midway sank despite somewhat higher fares should be even more alarming for Flyi. True that Midway didn't have the volume that Flyi relies upon, but the fact is that CRJs and their relatively high CASM are not effective competitive tools in a LCC market. Flyi needs to get a lot of Airbus aircraft real fast to make a dent in its high average CASM...

 

[cgflyer]

I see alot of dread talk in relation to Indy Air. As an outsider looking in, I'm proud to see a company take a stand for principle, even if they had to take a few lumps. I see they are now flying the Air Bus, at least 2 with I think 10 total in the next few months, their load factors are increasing monthly and the cost of fuel is decreasing daily. I only play around at day trading, but with a stock under $2, I think the time is ideal to look at an upturn for this company.


I'm going to go buy a few hundred more shares and then go purchase a round trip on them to support my investment.

Good luck to all of you at Indy Air, and stay determined, the rainbow is going to turn your direction.

cgflyer

 

[I.P. Freley]

It was asserted earlier in this thread that the Airbus is still in proving runs... If this is true, why is it taking so long? I didn't mark my calendar the first time I saw a flyI Airbus, but it seems like that was around two months ago.

 

[Indypilot]

The bus passed proving runs 3 weeks ago, and we have 2 of them flying the TPA and MCO flights. The third one is down in MCO getting it's seats installed and the fourth one should be here next week. We are adding 2 round trips to MCO, and will be adding a standup to BOS starting Dec. 21. The next city to open is PBI and service with the bus starts on 02.01.05.

 

[I.P. Freley]

Thanks for the info.

 

[upndsky]

Actually, JI was an LCC when it folded. When they came to RDU, they billed themselves as a business airline and rode the dot-com bubble for a while, doing pretty well. Then the bubble burst and 9/11 happened, forcing them into BK. They reinvented themselves as an LCC. I remember flying from RDU to MCO on a brand new 737 for $49, including all the taxes. When that failed, they began flying CRJs for USAirways Express. Finally, the judge forced them to liquidate.

 

[KingAirer]

I disagree...But it really doesnt matter!

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas,

Even when the 'bus really gets rolling for I-Air, it will probably just become a revolving door for JetBlue in the very same way that the 170 has for MidAtlantic.

Get'cher 320 type, and run, don't walk to the mailbox will probably become the mantra...

Nu

 

[tuna pimp]

Getting the Airbus online is the key to FlyI's success. Bankruptcy/Renegotiation of loans and contacts is neccessary to get the carrier through the 1st quarter. If FlyI is still around by then (and I hope they are) then they'll be in a much better position with some A319s feeding the CRJs. Having fuel costs come down to around $42 or so (if it stays) will also provide some immediate relief on the cash flow side of the equation as well.

Independance is a different beast from Midway for a few reasons:
1. They're operating out of Washington so there is a much stronger local O&D base from which to build. Raleigh is not a strong O&D market.
2. They have a strong North-South feed system already in place (today this is their archiles heel but it will become a strength as they take on more Airbus units).
3. FlyI seems to have a solid buzz going with their product. It appears geared towards women, who tend to be be the primary purchaser of tickets. Song has also created an airline who's soft marketing strategy is geared towards the ladies. Bill your airline as 'hip' and 'novel'.

Getting their fares listed on some GRS systems will put pressure on their distribution costs up front but will serve to improve LF as they move forward.

Independance is taking the correct steps in reducing frequencies from second tier markets like LAN and DAY. They need to push the aircraft into some larger markets not yet served (YYZ, YUL, STL, MSP, CVG perhaps) and add capacity in markets where they are carrying their QSP share and more.

Personally I'd put my money on them surviving but it won't be easy.

Just my humble opinion.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

Personally I'd put my money on them surviving but it won't be easy.

Especially for the hundreds, I mean hundreds, of pilots getting furloughed....