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FLYI Stock Tumbles, Is it over?

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I have no idea if GECAS will continue to help out IDE. Nobody knows right now. IDE already got a loan from GECAS last April or such, yet the next month IDE did not meet the convenants in the new financing agreement and GECAS now has the right to get back 8 RJ's. Yet as of 9/10/05 IDE still has them on property. Why, because the market is dead, 100% dead for the 50 seat aircraft. I have friend in Tucson who states there are 3 RJ's in IDE colors still sitting on BMB ramp awaiting new ownership. 635 was given back to its owner and rumor is it was parted out, as the parts are worth more than the whole. I do not have confirmation on that fact just relating what multiple people have told me.

The overall dynamics of aviation are changing so fast it is hard to keep ahead. The 50 seat market, hot 6 years ago is dead. The 70-90 seat market hot right now will be dead in 10 years also. The EMB 170/190 are just not going to make alot of money unless the RASM is increased, not likely in the foreseeable future as customers only care about price and they can compare diffferent prices in an instant, thanks to the internet.......

IMHO, the 70-90 seat market is hot right now because they can replace older 737 and such on most routes. Thus the majors can outsource the aircraft and assocciated jobs to the cheaper regionals. Thus the majors are just "franchising" out the airline. I mean RJET gave DAL millions of shares for the right to fly for DAL. MESA is giving DAL 10 million a year for 3 years for the right to fly for DAL. MESA is giving UAL 10 million a year for 3 years for the right to fly for UAL. What is the next evolutionary stage? Franchise the whole enchilada out for a franchise fee and a percentage of sales......

This is all my future conjecture but this is why I am out of this mess for good.....It was fun while it lasted and I enjoyed the ride but for God sake I do have a famliy I have to provide for and avaition will just not do it.
 
Peleton:

When I wrote "tumbles", it was Thursday afternoon, and the stock did take a dive. I subscribe to a few of the trading services, and on one I can actualy see the buy orders match up with the sell orders in real time. There were a lot of sell orders ( and some well below the 30 cents or so) with absolutely no buy orders. I thnk confidence has left the buildng, although that is true of most airline stocks.
Personally, I never did like it from the time that had Carvel/Matellin doing the ads. Can't stand either of them! :)
 
Billy Madison said:
Agreed. And yet Mesaba is actually getting new CRJ's. That was cool like ten years ago.

Billy

But remember, relatively speaking, NWA has fewer RJ's than the other majors. 9E has/will have 138 or so, and XJ is getting 15. Not that many in the grand scheme of things.

MM
 
By the way, and I say this with a laugh, with the stock at .25 and you bought 10,000 shares (which were not available), and suddenly "spikes" to .32 you made a wopping $700.00. And commission for 2 trades is $16.00. And,,,,,,,,, since it was a short term deal, 50% tax.

I don't see $334.00 as a tidy sum for the risk.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.

And, if it dumped 7 cents you lost $700.00 and the comission too.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, but 10,000 shares would only run you $4000. Not too shabby making $300+ in one day.
 
Hung Start said:
By the way, and I say this with a laugh, with the stock at .25 and you bought 10,000 shares (which were not available), and suddenly "spikes" to .32 you made a wopping $700.00. And commission for 2 trades is $16.00. And,,,,,,,,, since it was a short term deal, 50% tax.

I don't see $334.00 as a tidy sum for the risk.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.

And, if it dumped 7 cents you lost $700.00 and the comission too.

Can you quote a source for the claim there is a 50% tax on ST gains (taxed as ordinary income)? Haven't seen that one with the top bracket at 35% (28% for certain LT gains).

I agree that the risk/reward ratio is a bit low on FLYI for my taste. And I can't imagine anyone willing to risk capital for $300/day would last long as a trader. If you're trading 230 days (a lot of days to work in a year) that is only about $70K. Why bother?
 
Since everyone here is so knowledgeable on investment stratagies, I wonder why we chose to work for $20 an hour?


Ok that was a joke to get everyone back on the childish "money makes my job" wagon. On a simular note, my investment knowledge on penny stocks, look at UAL's chapter 11 exit stragey. Investors will expect to receive 4%-7% on their outstanding $20-30 billion receivables. And part of the exit is that all excisiting stocks will be vanished and new stocks issued to creditors to pay off their debt.

Crazyier things have happened though.

c.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050908/united_airlines.html?.v=6
 
CurlyD777 said:
Since everyone here is so knowledgeable on investment stratagies, I wonder why we chose to work for $20 an hour?


Ok that was a joke to get everyone back on the childish "money makes my job" wagon. On a simular note, my investment knowledge on penny stocks, look at UAL's chapter 11 exit stragey. Investors will expect to receive 4%-7% on their outstanding $20-30 billion receivables. And part of the exit is that all excisiting stocks will be vanished and new stocks issued to creditors to pay off their debt.

Crazyier things have happened though.

c.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050908/united_airlines.html?.v=6

I do not claim to be "knowledgeable on investment stratagies". I have traded equities and futures contracts for a living for a number of years. And while I will not denigrate anyone's salary, I can assure you I do not"work" for anything that approaches $20/hr.
 
Traderd said:
I do not claim to be "knowledgeable on investment stratagies". I have traded equities and futures contracts for a living for a number of years. And while I will not denigrate anyone's salary, I can assure you I do not"work" for anything that approaches $20/hr.

Somebody is a fancy boy.
 

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