FLYI Stock Tumbles, Is it over?

[Hung Start]

FlyI stock took a big tumble today, and there are a bunch of open orders. No takers.
Is the end near?

What say ye?

 

[kngarthur]

Couple of more weeks till they're out of dough.

 

[twott driver]

They're/ they are

 

[kngarthur]

They're/ they are

Thanks was in a hurry when I typed that.

 

[othello]

FLYi, Inc., a micro-cap company in the transportation sector, is expected to significantly underperform the market over the next six months with very high risk.

0.32 -0.03 -8.57%

WOW .32 cents a share at closing time friday.

There is no comming back from this.

I remember reading this board when they announced that they where cutting all ties to UAL and how excited the pilot group seemed all the talk about getting Airbuses. Didn't take long for the wheels to come off.

Sorry to all that work there.

 

[Hung Start]

As an amateur investor, I kind of new the wheels were coming off when I read on these boards that FLYI was having trouble getting crews to fly during a weekend that the job fairs were held. Sad, another good group of people seeing their dream hit the skids.

Anyway, even guru Jim Cramer says he will quit if he ever has to invest in an airline. Can't any of them find someone with a brain to run them as a true business?

 

[coolyokeluke]

Maybe it doesn't have anything to do with anything but there were three FlyI CRJ's parked in Oklahoma City on Wednesday with the tails painted over.

 

[Peleton]

Tumbles.......huh? On Tuesday they were at .25 a share, looks like they closed today at .32 cents a a share. Last time I checked .32 cents is greater that .25 cents. If one was inclined they could have made a very nice profit day trading on penny shares.

On a side note, they are almost done the writing is on the walls, BUT they have in the past pulled out of the nose dives and survived. '96 comes to mind, they did not have the money to pay the hotels so they had to rotate hotels if they wanted to have a place for the crews to stay, they get themselves a loan from BAe and survive to live another day.

As a wise man once said "never underestimate the stupidity of the investment world". Somebody may be stupid, or shrewd, enough to bail them out of this little mess they, Skeen and Moore, got themselves into.

BTW- the three RJ's are the ones that were returned several months ago. GECAS cannot give these danged things away, NOBODY wants them. So for right now they are sitting in storage. The 50 seat market is dead, I would venture to guess the 70 seat market is the next one to go to the grave yard. CASM's are still too high in relation to the RASM's. Until the ticket price goes up or the fuel/aircraft lease rates go down, the long term prospect for any RJ is not very good. By RJ I mean anything under 120 seats. You just cannot make a small jet operate economically unless you can get people to pay more for the tickets.

 

[Billy Madison]

BTW- the three RJ's are the ones that were returned several months ago. GECAS cannot give these danged things away, NOBODY wants them. So for right now they are sitting in storage. The 50 seat market is dead

Agreed. And yet Mesaba is actually getting new CRJ's. That was cool like ten years ago.

Billy

 

[Patriot328]

BTW- the three RJ's are the ones that were returned several months ago. GECAS cannot give these danged things away, NOBODY wants them. So for right now they are sitting in storage. The 50 seat market is dead,

Do you think the 50 seat market is dead enough that GECAS will give Indy some cash rather than collect the RJs that they can't deploy elsewhere... (lesser of two evils, so to speak)

 

[Peleton]

I have no idea if GECAS will continue to help out IDE. Nobody knows right now. IDE already got a loan from GECAS last April or such, yet the next month IDE did not meet the convenants in the new financing agreement and GECAS now has the right to get back 8 RJ's. Yet as of 9/10/05 IDE still has them on property. Why, because the market is dead, 100% dead for the 50 seat aircraft. I have friend in Tucson who states there are 3 RJ's in IDE colors still sitting on BMB ramp awaiting new ownership. 635 was given back to its owner and rumor is it was parted out, as the parts are worth more than the whole. I do not have confirmation on that fact just relating what multiple people have told me.

The overall dynamics of aviation are changing so fast it is hard to keep ahead. The 50 seat market, hot 6 years ago is dead. The 70-90 seat market hot right now will be dead in 10 years also. The EMB 170/190 are just not going to make alot of money unless the RASM is increased, not likely in the foreseeable future as customers only care about price and they can compare diffferent prices in an instant, thanks to the internet.......

IMHO, the 70-90 seat market is hot right now because they can replace older 737 and such on most routes. Thus the majors can outsource the aircraft and assocciated jobs to the cheaper regionals. Thus the majors are just "franchising" out the airline. I mean RJET gave DAL millions of shares for the right to fly for DAL. MESA is giving DAL 10 million a year for 3 years for the right to fly for DAL. MESA is giving UAL 10 million a year for 3 years for the right to fly for UAL. What is the next evolutionary stage? Franchise the whole enchilada out for a franchise fee and a percentage of sales......

This is all my future conjecture but this is why I am out of this mess for good.....It was fun while it lasted and I enjoyed the ride but for God sake I do have a famliy I have to provide for and avaition will just not do it.

 

[Hung Start]

Peleton:

When I wrote "tumbles", it was Thursday afternoon, and the stock did take a dive. I subscribe to a few of the trading services, and on one I can actualy see the buy orders match up with the sell orders in real time. There were a lot of sell orders ( and some well below the 30 cents or so) with absolutely no buy orders. I thnk confidence has left the buildng, although that is true of most airline stocks.
Personally, I never did like it from the time that had Carvel/Matellin doing the ads. Can't stand either of them!

 

[Mesabi Miner]

Agreed. And yet Mesaba is actually getting new CRJ's. That was cool like ten years ago.

Billy

But remember, relatively speaking, NWA has fewer RJ's than the other majors. 9E has/will have 138 or so, and XJ is getting 15. Not that many in the grand scheme of things.

MM

 

[Hung Start]

By the way, and I say this with a laugh, with the stock at .25 and you bought 10,000 shares (which were not available), and suddenly "spikes" to .32 you made a wopping $700.00. And commission for 2 trades is $16.00. And,,,,,,,,, since it was a short term deal, 50% tax.

I don't see $334.00 as a tidy sum for the risk.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.

And, if it dumped 7 cents you lost $700.00 and the comission too.

 

[labbats]

Yeah, but 10,000 shares would only run you $4000. Not too shabby making $300+ in one day.

 

[Traderd]

By the way, and I say this with a laugh, with the stock at .25 and you bought 10,000 shares (which were not available), and suddenly "spikes" to .32 you made a wopping $700.00. And commission for 2 trades is $16.00. And,,,,,,,,, since it was a short term deal, 50% tax.

I don't see $334.00 as a tidy sum for the risk.

Sorry, just couldn't resist.

And, if it dumped 7 cents you lost $700.00 and the comission too.

Can you quote a source for the claim there is a 50% tax on ST gains (taxed as ordinary income)? Haven't seen that one with the top bracket at 35% (28% for certain LT gains).

I agree that the risk/reward ratio is a bit low on FLYI for my taste. And I can't imagine anyone willing to risk capital for $300/day would last long as a trader. If you're trading 230 days (a lot of days to work in a year) that is only about $70K. Why bother?

 

[CurlyD777]

Since everyone here is so knowledgeable on investment stratagies, I wonder why we chose to work for $20 an hour?


Ok that was a joke to get everyone back on the childish "money makes my job" wagon. On a simular note, my investment knowledge on penny stocks, look at UAL's chapter 11 exit stragey. Investors will expect to receive 4%-7% on their outstanding $20-30 billion receivables. And part of the exit is that all excisiting stocks will be vanished and new stocks issued to creditors to pay off their debt.

Crazyier things have happened though.

c.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050908/united_airlines.html?.v=6

 

[Traderd]

Since everyone here is so knowledgeable on investment stratagies, I wonder why we chose to work for $20 an hour?


Ok that was a joke to get everyone back on the childish "money makes my job" wagon. On a simular note, my investment knowledge on penny stocks, look at UAL's chapter 11 exit stragey. Investors will expect to receive 4%-7% on their outstanding $20-30 billion receivables. And part of the exit is that all excisiting stocks will be vanished and new stocks issued to creditors to pay off their debt.

Crazyier things have happened though.

c.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050908/united_airlines.html?.v=6

I do not claim to be "knowledgeable on investment stratagies". I have traded equities and futures contracts for a living for a number of years. And while I will not denigrate anyone's salary, I can assure you I do not"work" for anything that approaches $20/hr.

 

[labbats]

I do not claim to be "knowledgeable on investment stratagies". I have traded equities and futures contracts for a living for a number of years. And while I will not denigrate anyone's salary, I can assure you I do not"work" for anything that approaches $20/hr.

Somebody is a fancy boy.