FEDEX or Alaska?

[av8instyle]

I agree that conservative is the way to go but being ultra conservative may cause you to miss out. Although comparing apples and oranges, if FedEx growth/movement halts I would imagine Alaska would have been affected as well therefore limiting movement to the left seat. Good dilemma to be in though. Good Luck.

The three years he speaks of is pretty much assuming no movement for growth..retirement only. 65 may get in the way. Alaska pay was MUCH higher a couple of years ago. It will be much higher as soon as we get a contract signed. I wouldn't make any airline changes based on pay. It changes with every contract. I prefer to look at furlough protection (retirements), economic viability of the company, domiciles, and type of flying. If Fedex comes out ahead for an individual in these areas, then the money doesn't matter - right now it would be icing on the cake. If Alaska comes out on top with these choices, then I would suck it up and hope we get new pay rates soon. That much seniority is pretty good furlough protection. That would be tough to give up, even for Fedex. Alaska is not going anywhere soon. 75 years and counting, consistently profitable. They just need to share the wealth!

 

[av8instyle]

(If you decide to stay, I need a silver bullet )

Unfortunately, when our chief pilot got fired, so did the SB program. I actually have no idea what it takes to get a dude hired right now.

 

[mach none]

I ran the same type scenario for UPS and the numbers were very similar. I too was conservative because in my past, the movement was never the same as before I arrived. It was always slower. As one old timer told me years ago, the grass is always greener where you are.

With that said, FedEx has much more variety of flying and that would certainly be nice. FedEx will be around for some time to come and will most likely be the type of company that acquires other companies.
Alaska is a question mark in this regard. The past is certain no indicator of the future in this business and we are ripe for merger and it doesn't matter that other airlines don't have money. There is plenty available through private equity and banks willing to get a piece of the action.

 

[Boxboy]

All good post, but with that said I'll expand on my earlier post.

No doubt that Alaska flying is fun and "cushy". Mostly same time zones, mostly good layovers, nice equipment, and really good folks (did I say mostly) to fly with. I could not ask for anything more on the flying side or the people that I work with, that is once the doors are shut.

Here's my doubtful side of Alaska Airlines. I am aware of other airlines' management, atleast most of them-evil, greedy, self centered, arrogant, merciless, cowardly, fill in the rest.... IMHO, I really don't have faith that our management has the balls or the wit to grow this airlines and make it worthwhile for many of us to stick around. Like Mach said, we are a small airline. Yeah, we have a good niche in Alaska and Mexico but it won't be long before someone else will make a move to either compete with us or buy us out. You may say that it won't happen and that in the past, we were able to fend them off. If you think this way, you need to join the ranks of our management team because that's how arrogant Bill and the boys are. I don't want to be in a middle of a merger/buyout when I'm in my 50's. Again, I don't have a crystal ball.
Regarding FEDEX, need I or anyone say more. FEDEX is not immune from any of the dangers that the rest of the airline industry is exposed to. However, They have lots of cash and they can withstand more punishment than any other carrier out there, along with UPS. As long as there is internet and things to buy and sell, cargo will always be in demand. As long as China and all of these countries with cheap labor continue to produce the high-demand products, cargo movers will always be in demand.
I really can't say where there is green grass anymore in this business. For me, it's come down to putting food on the table and being able to support my family until my kids become independent. I'm just hedging my bets just like the rest of us. I think it's called survival instinct.

 

[mach none]

Good on you

 

[Babylon]

1. The stats the guy earlier put up about Fedex on the 727 for 3 years are unrealistic. I'm a 2nd year guy on the MD11 out of LAX - I was out of ANC with every trip making $134/hr. My case will probably be an average case for the next few years.

2. Fedex is obviously much more stable than Alaska - I don't see a concensionary contract in our future and anything's possible at AS.

3. As far as equipment goes I'd much rather fly the MD11, 757, or 777 than any 737 (I fly the 737NG for the Reserves). 737 is not really any sort of "nice equipment" unless it's the only glass you've ever flown. Much better equipment and flying avail at Fedex.

4. Back side of the clock flying sucks. You will do it at Fedex. There is a lot of variety but you can count on some serious circadian rhythm shifts here. I still think it's worth it for a variety of reasons but it is tough.

5. Since you're at AS now I'll guess that you might live on the West coast - if so than Fedex can be great for you. The ANC base is junior and a great base with great flying - a large amount of EASY trips to Asia with a great crew force. If you live down south, LAX is a real possiblity - not as much good flying but sitting reserve and working 4 days a month is very nice.

I think the flying at Alaska may be more fun but no where near as secure. Good luck.

 

[Falconjet]

I wouldn't assume that movement at FedEx will necessarily continue at its current rate. The company has ALREADY slowed down hiring just in case the Age 60 rule changes. When/If it actually does change, hiring and advancement will slow down even more.

I was hired in 02 and spent 2 years on RESERVE in the back of the Boeing. Couldn't even sniff the right seat till year 3. A lot of guys hired a year ahead of me (almost 400 guys) were able to get to the right seat of the Boeing very quickly, but a lot of us were stuck at the bottom for a while.

I would absolutely use the lowest numbers when making a purely financial comparison of the two companies. If it is worth leaving at the low end of the scale and you happen to move up quicker then it will be gravy.

I compared SW pay with FedEx at the year and a half mark when I finally made it out of the pool at SW. I used an ultra conservative upgrade scenario for FedEx and never even considered the widebody aircraft. With 16 left at FedEx and 14 at SW (at that time) I would have about broken even in that scenario, except for the A plan difference. I estimated the A plan to be worth $1M to me over my life if I retired as a Boeing Capt at 60 and then lived to be 75. FedEx B fund just about offset SW's 401K match and the wages over the time frame were remarkably close. Again, this was using pretty conservative numbers for career progression at FedEx.

Imagine my surprise and delight when I started making widebody pay and we finally got the new contract. I haven't gone back to re-compute the numbers because it is moot and the money wasn't the main reason I stayed. The QOL and relative stability and security at FedEx were the main reasons even though I was only about 35 numbers from the bottom for almost 2 years when I had to make the choice.

I would be conservative with the numbers and then consider the fact that FedEx (and SW for that matter) is a company built by a visionary who takes an extremely personal stake in the success of the company. That is the main reason I think FedEx and SW stand out from other airlines. Both are run by the individuals with a personal stake in their success and aren't simply in it to make the most dough in a short time, punch their airline exec ticket and then burn the place down either through mismanagement or incompetence.

That is why I would certainly recommend the jump over to Purple if the numbers work for you.

Good luck.

FJ

 

[SpoolDaddy]

I left Alaska shortly after Kasher and have been at FedEx almost two years. I can say that of the two former AS guys I know at FX, neither of us regret our decision for a minute. That said, when it was good at AS, it was great, surfing with my mobile in a ziploc, and I made great friends there... great crew force. Crew force at FX is also great, and I sleep better at night these days.

Warnings about "slow down" are true and if or more likely when 65 happens things will slow down everywhere, including FX. Tough, tough decision no doubt, with some very strong positives to each company depending on your personal position. I won't lie, giving up several years of seniority did sting.

Good luck either way, SD

 

[johnsonrod]

The Flight Attendants are hotter at Fedex.

Personally, I'd go with Fedex and see the world on bigger equipment. If you are ex-military and you have seen the world in a C-17 then this might not be as important to you.

 

[AlbieF15]

If you live in SEA or LAX, I think you need to run the numbers on a BAD upgrade flow (2-3 years in a SO spot, 1-2 junior FO, widebody at year 4 or 5), and see how happy you would be.

Who wouldn't be happy upgrading to a WB at year 2? It has happened--but like FJ pointed out timing is everything. It might happen--or it might slow down for a while. How happy would you be commuting to a crappy schedule or reserve in MEM for 2-3 years?

FJ teaches, and as a result holds some pretty good schedules on the panel at WB pay. I'm a few numbers higher than he is, but I couldn't hold any really "sweet" lines on an A300 that would be day/domestic flying similar to whay you probably do now at Alaska. I can hold some hodge-podge MD-11 trips but holding I CAN hold some decent day flying on the 727, but at a 20% discount to FJ's pay. However--we've been here for 5 years plus... We didn't get here overnight.

If you live in Alaska (or want to..), and flying 5-8 days international excites you--then the equation changes. You "probably" can get to AK in a year or two and you will be an MD11 F/O making good money. But--you won't have 3 on/4 off very much, you'll have the circadian issues crossing time zones, and you WILL NOT be fishing with your cell phone in your pocket as reserve goes senior up there. I bid ANC at 100% for almost 3 years however, and I couldn't hold it until I could hold the 727 right seat in MEM.

10-20 years--FedEx is PROBABLY a better deal. 5 Years--your Q of Life might not be as good.

On the other hand--catch a wave--like some of the 2003/2004 hires--and your on a WB year 2 making 6 figures....and boy...when its good its VERY good. You could drop 20% of your trips and still have as much money as you make now, and a lot more time off.

As mentioned--you are blessed if you get to have this choice. Good luck in any case...