Fedex latest: 737 out again, 757 Back in!

[sandman2122]

"810" 737, Captain, 100%.

That's still listed on my standing bid........still in VIPs

company can delete it tomorrow though......

 

[Echopapa]

In the words of the great Sherry O'Terry from SNL..."Simmer Down Now"

Just a voice of reason on the hiring front...we went over a year without hiring a single person, now we need to hire 2000 is 5 years? What has happened to make our situation at FedEx so different in a single year? Corporate predictions are almost as bad as the USAF. Extrapolating growth over 5 years is a tenuous business at best. Next year we aquire around 20 planes, and at a Crew ratio of about 10 pilots per plane, that equates to 200 guys plus retirments and medicals. Unfortuantely, there are many factors that will adversly affect our hiring. The biggest of which will be the change of the over 60 rule (which I don't want) and a possible swap from a 3 to a 2 man cockpit.

Look back at our big postal hiring...they said 700 pilots...we got 400, which is still a lot, but lets not get carried away.

Don't buy that Captain house yet new hires.

 

[profile]

Believe the ratio is 10 CREWS/ airplane, not 10 pilots, especially for the MD11.

 

[Los1]

EP--

Prof is absolutely right--10 crews per jet.
With all the expansion planned in India and China, not to mention the european thing, I dont see how we can get away with not hiring alot, repeat, alot of pilots.
2000 in 4 years, I do not know, but definitely a sizable amount.
it should be all good----
see ya in MEM
Los

 

[Echopapa]

Ok ok so the glass is half empty for me. I mis-spoke when I said crew...I meant crew members, not full crews. Belive me I will be jumping for joy IF we hire 2000 in the next five years.

20 pilots per plane is, in my opinion, way too high. I think the number is much closer to 8.5 pilots / plane for the Airbus and 11.5 for the MD-11.

If you have different math please explain.

If we hypothetically take on 10 A300's and 15 MD-11's next year, but then lose 5 DC-10's and 3 727's then...

10 X 8.5
+
15 X 11.5
-
5 X 15
-
3 X 15
______
140 (ish)

Clearly the loss of three man cockpits makes a very big dent in our hiring.

I think that 140 gains for growth plus retirements and medicals makes 200 - 250 a reasonable number per year.

I don't see any way we are going to have the kind of growth that would require 400 pilots a year. That would require 25-30 aircraft additions a year without any aircraft losses or 3-2 man conversions.

There are many factors out there that could affect our hiring adversly in the next 5 years:

1. When (not if) we trade in the "Boeing", I predict that we will see a complete freeze on our hiring. All of those 727 S/O slots (400 plus) will evaporate. Thats a lot of pilots to absorb.
2. If the over 60 rule changes we will have minimal retirements, only medicals, for 5 years.
3. If we allow every retired FedEx pilot who's over 60 but not yet 65 to come back and fly again at their seniority number.
4. If the new contract has work rule changes that allow for greater productivity.

I don't want to bring anyone down...I just think we are getting carried away. There are factors out there that can adversly affect our hiring in a significant manner.

I say this because we are in tenuous times with contract negotiations and I don't want to see anyone make purchases based on progression predictions that I belive to be unrealistically high.

 

[waitinginline]

mix it up

Thursday February 3, 2005



FedEx Express To Acquire Airbus A320

FedEx Express plans to acquire 15 A320‘s which it says it will convert to freighters. They plan to take delivery of the aircraft beginning in 2006 provided conversions go as planned. The A320 offers superior service capabilities that FedEx Express’ present short haul fleet cannot match.

“This FedEx order is major in the future of the A320 program. FedEx is our first U.S. all cargo operator for the A320 freighter version," said Noel Forgeard, Airbus Chief Executive Officer.

 

[klhoard]

1. When (not if) we trade in the "Boeing", I predict that we will see a complete freeze on our hiring. All of those 727 S/O slots (400 plus) will evaporate. Thats a lot of pilots to absorb.
2. If the over 60 rule changes we will have minimal retirements, only medicals, for 5 years.
3. If we allow every retired FedEx pilot who's over 60 but not yet 65 to come back and fly again at their seniority number.
4. If the new contract has work rule changes that allow for greater productivity.

I say this because we are in tenuous times with contract negotiations and I don't want to see anyone make purchases based on progression predictions that I belive to be unrealistically high.

.
.
1. All Second Officers should be frozen in their current position and then retired / terminated in seniority order as the 727's and -10's are retired.
.
2. Every pilot should work until they can't physically climb the stairs. That way we won't have so many retired pilots out there draining the company's retirement fund.
.
3. I don't think the company will allow this. Once you're retired, you're retired. Unless they agree to pay back every penny they spent while "retired".
.
4. I think work rule changes are necessary to help the company stave off bankruptcy.
.
.
.
Sorry guys, couldn't resist. Maybe I should stop drinking during day hub turns. . .
.
.

 

[Mr Zog]

Echopapa,

Pretty close on the math. By my calculations (based on Jan airframes and crewmembers):

Airbus: 95 planes
Crewmembers: Capt - 461 (424 MEM and 39 SFS) F/0 - 407 (371/36)
Ratio: 4.5 crews per plane (9 crewmembers)

MD-11: 80 planes (42 MD-11 and 38 MD-10)
Crewmembers: Capt - 621 F/0 - 707
Ratio: 8 crews per plane (16 crewmembers)

Caveat, We are short on both crewforces as of January. So I think the planners probably want closer to 5.5 or 6 crews for Airbus and 9 or 10 for the MD-11. Again my opinion.​

 

[Vik]

Can you elaborate as to what the expansion plans are for India?

EP--

Prof is absolutely right--10 crews per jet.
With all the expansion planned in India and China, not to mention the european thing, I dont see how we can get away with not hiring alot, repeat, alot of pilots.
2000 in 4 years, I do not know, but definitely a sizable amount.
it should be all good----
see ya in MEM
Los

 

[Kav]

Going "postal"?

Was jumpseating back from Germany on Tuesday evening... when one of the MD-11 RFO's on the jet said they heard that FedEx was unofficially awarded a much, much larger Postal contract. This particular person didn't have any details to offer other than that.

I already thought we had the entire postal contract stateside...and also had the European one now. So, I don't know what this could be. But I haven't seen anything on the boards here yet.

Anyone know anything of this?

Kav

 

[Mr Zog]

Nothing new. I have been hearing international postal contract rumors for 2 years now.

 

[ILStoMinimums]

Airbus A320's? Your jocking right? Are there any A320F's out flying with other carriers? I don't think I've ever come across one.

 

[Murdawg5]

Just a quick addition to the international mail thing...

I just did an Narita-China-Osaka flight, and while doing my walkaround on the turn, the boxkickers were unloading US Mail addressed to China... So, we're definately hauling the international mail... As per how much we're hauling and the future amounts...
Who knows...
Later,
Murdawg5

 

[TonyC]

Thursday February 3, 2005



FedEx Express To Acquire Airbus A320

FedEx Express plans to acquire 15 A320‘s which it says it will convert to freighters. They plan to take delivery of the aircraft beginning in 2006 provided conversions go as planned. The A320 offers superior service capabilities that FedEx Express’ present short haul fleet cannot match.

“This FedEx order is major in the future of the A320 program. FedEx is our first U.S. all cargo operator for the A320 freighter version," said Noel Forgeard, Airbus Chief Executive Officer.

I talked to an ALPA insider yesterday. We're in the process of negotiating Right of First Refusal to service the Lavs and cross the seatbelts on the jumpseats. ALPA believes this will serve to improve pilot morale, and at the same time contribute directly to the corporate bottom line. The Company has allowed that such a voluntary concession could very well be that "make or break" that might make it possible for our financially-troubled company to turn the freighter into a profitable proposition.



.

 

[Big Beer Belly]

I already thought we had the entire postal contract stateside...and also had the European one now. So, I don't know what this could be. But I haven't seen anything on the boards here yet.

Anyone know anything of this?

Kav

If you guys have the entire postal contract, would you please get your stuff off our (UPS) jets. <g> Every time I look we're hauling postal to HNL ... on several occasions extra 747's are chartered full of nothing but postal ... something about FedEx can't handle it. <vbg>

 

[Big Beer Belly]

There are many factors out there that could affect our hiring adversly in the next 5 years:

1. When (not if) we trade in the "Boeing", I predict that we will see a complete freeze on our hiring. All of those 727 S/O slots (400 plus) will evaporate. Thats a lot of pilots to absorb.
2. If the over 60 rule changes we will have minimal retirements, only medicals, for 5 years.
3. If we allow every retired FedEx pilot who's over 60 but not yet 65 to come back and fly again at their seniority number.
4. If the new contract has work rule changes that allow for greater productivity.

I don't want to bring anyone down...I just think we are getting carried away. There are factors out there that can adversly affect our hiring in a significant manner.

I say this because we are in tenuous times with contract negotiations and I don't want to see anyone make purchases based on progression predictions that I belive to be unrealistically high.

I don't mean to step on any fellow cargo toes here, but here's a few items that have really stagnated our hiring/seat progression at UPS:

1. 3-2 man aircraft retirements/purchases. Out w/ the 747, DC-8 and 727 ... all replaced with 2-pilot acft.

2. ALL new acft are widebodies. Instead of 727's with a single leg in/out of the sort it's now 2 legs in/out with 1 jet and only 2 pilots.

3. By far the most devastating damage to our schedules/hiring/progression and block hours overall has been the company's trucking of former air packages (far more cost efficient we're told). Their multi-year overhaul by IT geeks has resulted in an approximately 20% (conservatively estimated by the IPA) reduction in flying (as measured by block hours). Nearly all Friday night air sorts are shutdown (SDF and ONT exceptions) and they have figured out a way to rail/truck the volume coast to coast and everywhere in between over the weekend. Additionally, Mon-Thurs volume is trucked/rail to the absolute maximum extent possible and still make service commitments/guarantees. As an example UPS runs these all white cabbed sleeper trucks between LA and Dallas (and many other city pairs) in less than 22 hrs. Our ONT-DFW flights now move only next day volume. All 2/3-day volume is trucked (former air volume).

This has thankfully not resulted in furloughs, rather just stagnation, as the overall air volume has experienced healthy increases every year thereby cushioning the negative effect of the shift to ground. According to management, they have completed their squeezing of the efficiencies out of the air system so all our growth in the airline from now on is "pure" (if you will).

My guess is that you (at FedEx) will unfortunately (from a pilot perspective) experience the same challenges to hiring/upgrades that we've gone through as your company continues to build its ground operation and seek the most cost efficient means to deliver the boxes.

Best of luck to all my friends in purple. Kick Fred's butt on your next contract would ya! <g>