FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers

[captain822]

Table 29 on the above link should be of most interest to us. It forecasts commercial pilot certificates.

2007-2008: Increase of almost 10,000 new commercial certificates
2008-2009: Increase of almost 1,000 new commercial certificates
2009-2010: DECREASE of almost 800 commercial certificates
2010-2011: Increase of almost 200 commercial certificates
2011-2012: DECREASE of almost 1,000 commercial certificates
2012-2013: DECREASE of almost 4,000 commercial certificates
2013-2014: DECREASE of almost 100 commercial certificates
2014-2015: DECREASE of almost 100 commercial certificates
2015-2016: Increase of almost 1600 commercial certificates

If their forecast is remotely accurate, there will only be a net gain of 200 commercial certificates this year, and a net loss of 5200 commercial certificates between 2011-2015, which is probably when we'll see most of the age 65 guys retiring, creating another huge shortage followed by an increase of 1600 new commercial certificates in 2016. Somewhere in this time span, airlines will merge, contracts will get better, wages will get higher, stricter rest rules and hiring minimums will be implemented, and the next generation of new pilots will have something to look forward to (hopefully!).

 

[Skippy]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

I disagree on 2. Supply and demand? Thats an economic law- there will always be plenty of pilotsthe question is how good are they and how many hours do they have. Thats funny applying economic law as if being a pilot is a commodity--- now a dr. Thats a commodity profession not pilots- would you rather go to the cheapest dr for open heart surgery or the best-?

We suck, the smart pilots know this as well as there are plenty of pilots ready at the helms when some decide to leave the industry- yet fo pay doesnt go down with all the supply herego law doesnt apply.

 

[Metro752]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

Agreed 100%. Good post.

Do these student numbers also include foreign students training in the US for their respective countries?

I said what I said because I am tired of this new moderator moving threads all over the place.

This article is not NEWS either.

I do agree you have valid questions and responses though.

To the moderator(s):

Stop moving threads so much. You're smothering this message board.

 

[crj567]

I said what I said because I am tired of this new moderator moving threads all over the place.

This article is not NEWS either.

I do agree you have valid questions and responses though.

To the moderator(s):

Stop moving threads so much. You're smothering this message board.

Good points-

-This place is turning into a Ghost town.... A very politically correct ghost town, but a ghost town nonetheless...

-Chirp, chirp....

(How many threads had posts today on the major boards? Five, six... ) Lookout internet-we are gonna overload the whole "information superhighway" with politically correct hugs and smootches...

 

[ultrarunner]

I'm all for less supply. We all should be, right? Why would any currently employed pilot in the industry right now NOT support a decrease in supply?

I like those numbers above!

What am I missing?

 

[crj567]

I'm all for less supply. We all should be, right? Why would any currently employed pilot in the industry right now NOT support a decrease in supply?

I like those numbers above!

What am I missing?

Yep-

I like the numbers too-until the airlines declare some sort of staffing "emergency" and come up with a way to get MPL or some sort of cabotage.

 

[beagle pilot]

I disagree on 2. Supply and demand? Thats an economic law- there will always be plenty of pilotsthe question is how good are they and how many hours do they have. Thats funny applying economic law as if being a pilot is a commodity--- now a dr. Thats a commodity profession not pilots

Of course we're a commodity. As you alluded, it's the plentifulness of pilots which has contributed to the present circumstances. While it is true several unscrupulous airlines have hired pilots with the bare minimum qualifications, the current and forthcoming changes in airline pilot requirements resulting from the Colgan aftermath is a game changer. Another game changer is the thread topic: dwindling numbers of new pilots.

Although airlines, through RAPA and ATA, will push for "relief" such as MPL as crj567 suggested, the Colgan legacy will prevent that from being very easy to accomplish. While money often talks loudest in Washington, sometimes politics prevails such as what is happening in this instance.

 

[crj567]

Of course we're a commodity. As you alluded, it's the plentifulness of pilots which has contributed to the present circumstances. While it is true several unscrupulous airlines have hired pilots with the bare minimum qualifications, the current and forthcoming changes in airline pilot requirements resulting from the Colgan aftermath is a game changer. Another game changer is the thread topic: dwindling numbers of new pilots.

Although airlines, through RAPA and ATA, will push for "relief" such as MPL as crj567 suggested, the Colgan legacy will prevent that from being very easy to accomplish. While money often talks loudest in Washington, sometimes politics prevails such as what is happening in this instance.

Your theory is real fine and dandy, but it will break down when the public figures out they can fly from NY to SFO for $72 each way (when either MPL of cabotage rolls around.) The public doesn't really give a rat about safety-they think they will just get a sprained elbow from and accident, and will be win $17 million from their lawsuit for the inconvenience.

-Face the truth-to the public, politicians, and media-we are just a bunch of overpaid bus drivers who drink way too much.

 

[clr4theapch]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

This is exactly why I posted this thread here.. I started the thread!!. I thought it would be of the most interest and impact here in the regionals board.. maybe another MOD will move my thread.. ??

 

[beagle pilot]

This is exactly why I posted this thread here.. I started the thread!!. I thought it would be of the most interest and impact here in the regionals board.

It's very appropriate here or on any airline/commercial pilot board since a pilot shortage affects all of us just as pilot overages have done.

Here's the link to the ALPA article I mentioned previously: http://www.alpa.org/portals/alpa/magazine/2007/JJ2007_PilotShortage.pdf

Here's another on from February 2001. While exact circumstances have changed, the history and the potential consequences remain the same: http://cf.alpa.org/internet/alp/2001/feb01p18.htm