FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers

[ackattacker]

In ages past, hiring has gotten tight enough that major airlines were hiring ab-initio off the street guys who'd never been in a cockpit before in their lives. We're still a long, long way from ever seeing that again.

 

[152SIC]

Great links Beagle Pilot! Interesting to read for sure.

 

[wrxpilot]

72,000 will be more than enough, even if only a third of them move to commercial.

I doubt it has EVER been anywhere close to that amount.

 

[A-V-8]

72,000 will be more than enough, even if only a third of them move to commercial.

The FAA website has a presentation on it that shows only about 2-3 out of 500 will ever earn an ATP. Many of those recent students are foreigners. They laugh at what we are paid. I don’t know where the slides are and I am not motivated enough to find them.

The damage has been done via the economy and the RLA. Most of the political decisions that will affect my career have already been made. I am not very optimistic about aviation in this country for my career and I have 29.5 years left.

I am looking for opportunities overseas for now. If the tide turns so be it but even if there is a shortage it doesn’t mean that we will get paid more. It means that the government will start paying for licenses to flood the market with pilots. There are other scenarios like letting foreign airlines fill the market.

 

[motch]

The FAA website has a presentation on it that shows only about 2-3 out of 500 will ever earn an ATP.

Do you really think there will only be @360 ATP issued out 72000 applicants?!

Reality is, there will be no shortage of pilots available.
There may be a shortage of pilots willing to fly under a poor contract, but that is another story.

 

[beagle pilot]

The damage has been done via the economy and the RLA. Most of the political decisions that will affect my career have already been made. I am not very optimistic about aviation in this country for my career and I have 29.5 years left.

Does this mean you are leaving for a better, more financially stable career or that you are into masochism?

I started in this business as my third career at the age of 35 in 1991. It started out well enough then quickly stagnated and stalled for several years. It picked up again just before hitting another at the end of 2001. C'est la vie. Welcome to the airline business!

It reminds me of this joke:

A guy walks into his local bar and is hit immediately by a dreadful smell, which isn't usually there.
"What's that smell?" he asked the bartender in disgust. A stranger; a skinny, unremarkable looking man, raised his hand apologetically: "That's from me." he said. The stranger then went on to explain that he was with the traveling circus that had just rolled into town, and his job was elephant keeper. The elephant, who didn't travel well, permanently had a dodgy digestion. Every morning, one of his tasks was to give it an enema. "you never get out of the way in time", he said apologetically, "then, of course, there's the constant clean up".

The local man was shocked. "You have to do this every day? The man nodded "Sometimes twice a day". "But that's terrible!" exclaimed said the local man, utterly horrified. "Why don't you find a better job?"
Now it was the the stranger's turn to looked horrified.
"WHAT....? And leave showbusiness..?"

 

[beagle pilot]

Reality is, there will be no shortage of pilots available.
There may be a shortage of pilots willing to fly under a poor contract, but that is another story.

A shortage is a shortage, but you are correct there won't be an actual shortage. What will happen, as always in these things and as the links pointed out, market forces will change to avert any actual shortage for one very simple reason: airplanes without pilots don't make money.

At the moment we're on the backside of a cycle where pay, benefits and QOL are so low that young college students are electing to go into career fields other than aviation. Those who track these things for the aviation industry have noted the potential problems. Before the recent economic disaster in the fall of 2008, Netjets had given their pilots a very lucrative contract for the simple reason they saw the coming "shortage" and wanted to attract the best pilots to their company before the airlines swept them up. After the economy rebounds, hopefully later this year or early next, the low number of pilots being trained will be foreseen as a serious problem.

 

[zasca]

Daniel Webster College is shutting down it's flight training department. Wonder how much the current climate affected that decision. They've been around for awhile...

 

[NoJoy]

It costs an insane amount of money now to be a proffesional pilot. Add to that the starting wage at most regionals is terrible (around $19.00hr) and tack on another 5 years to be upgrade as CA (thanks to the age 65 rule) and the average pilot will not see the "Majors" until their mid to late 30s if they stay in the 121 world that long.

 

[motch]

It costs an insane amount of money now to be a proffesional pilot. Add to that the starting wage at most regionals is terrible (around $19.00hr) and tack on another 5 years to be upgrade as CA (thanks to the age 65 rule) and the average pilot will not see the "Majors" until their mid to late 30s if they stay in the 121 world that long.

Just wondering what you consider an "insane amount"?
A 4 yr degree will cost you between 50-80 grand.. maybe more if you look at top tier colleges.
Getting your private to CFI/CFII/MEI will cost between 50-80 grand.

Expensive, sure. But not insane. It's a career, not just a job.

Do you think Doctors, Lawyers, Professional Engineers think their costs are "insane". It's the cost of getting into the industry.

One major problem with our industry is that we had a period where alot of pilots got lucky and didn't have to pay large dues to get in. Then because of timing, they got a quick upgrade.
I flew with FO's at my old job with 250-500 hours, low multi time and some with just 2 yr degrees.

There are probably a couple of thousand ATP rated pilots on the street today due to furloughs that need to come back to their original jobs or get hired at a new carrier.
Real hiring won't start up again till 2011-2012 and who knows how long it will last.
If 2013 comes around and the regionals have problems finding pilots, I'll believe we have a problem. But don't really see it happening.

 

[beagle pilot]

Just wondering what you consider an "insane amount"?
A 4 yr degree will cost you between 50-80 grand.. maybe more if you look at top tier colleges.
Getting your private to CFI/CFII/MEI will cost between 50-80 grand.

Expensive, sure. But not insane. It's a career, not just a job.

Do you think Doctors, Lawyers, Professional Engineers think their costs are "insane". It's the cost of getting into the industry.

We have several FO's who owe $150K in Pilot Factory debt. That's insane.

Not saying your projected costs are wrong, but they are on the high side.

College costs average about $33K/yr for a private college and $16K/yr for a public college. Airline pilots don't need to go to Harvard in order to gain a flying job. Given that most pilots who go to the pilot factory schools are "aviation science" majors, going to a public college and earning a degree in Accounting, Computer Science or some other career field is not only cheaper, but more useful as a back-up to their aviation career. When I worked as a recruiter/interviewer, we didn't care much about where they went to school or what their degree as much as we were checking to make sure it was an accredited college or university.

Flying costs are high, but again your projections are on the high side. You've projected a combined cost of $100K to $160K. This is quite a range since it covers the cost of 10 acres and a Double Wide in Texas.

The bottom line is that it's insane to spend $160,000 on a career that pays $22,000 a year and, for most, tops out at $100,000. A lucky few may reach $220,000 by the time they are in their 50s, but most will be in the $100-150K range from their mid-30s to 50s. Most Doctors and Lawyers will beat those figures by a decade. Ten years at $100,000 is a million dollar difference.

 

[Skippy]

i agree with beagle--- i spent the last 2 years of my bachelors at a small university which cost less per year in tuition than my high school--- it's about cost-- my aviation advisor at the time put to rest my concerns about university importance when it comes to decide on an interview candidate-- it means nothing-- a bachelors is a bachelors-- and everyone has the same airplane certificates- so it comes down to who is getting a better return on their investment vs say an embry riddle grad-( school chosen for expensive effect only)--- spend 2-5X more for the same 19/hr fo job at a regional- so then ask yourself who is getting the more bang for the buck.

the prices are outrageous, the debt is outrageous-- and the cost of the profession isnt seen in the pilot salaries--- sad-- f'n sad

SKIPPY

 

[no1pilot2000]

When I got my 3rd class medical renewed, my AME told me that he was issuing much fewer student pilot medical certificates. He also told me that the number of 1st through 3rd class medicals he was issuing is about the same

 

[A-V-8]

Do you really think there will only be @360 ATP issued out 72000 applicants?!

Reality is, there will be no shortage of pilots available.
There may be a shortage of pilots willing to fly under a poor contract, but that is another story.

You’re probably right. I may have messed up the numbers. It has been years since I saw the slide.

We did receive a shortage in early 2008. The Economy was just heading for the crapper. Fuel prices were high and folks couldn’t afford a license. The shortage was short and then age 65 kicked in and now it’s moving like pond water.

Will we see a shortage in the future? Of course we will. It will be at the regional level. Remember Skybus. 65K for a check airman on the Airbus. Who would work for that? They had a line out the door. Regional guys will always jump at the first opportunity. That will ensure that the shortage will be regional in nature. If the regional’s can’t fill the seats we may see 2 RJ departures go away and replaced by a mainline plane but I don’t think that there will be any shortage at the Major level in any of our careers.

 

[Rerouted]

I remember listening to the head of the training department lecture to the new hire class that I was part of that there is a paradigm shift in the industry. Pilots won't likely find much upward mobility and the pay scales will be substantially lower. This was in 2002. I think we're about to see another paradigm shift, but I disagree with those who say it is just like every other up and down rythm in the industry.

2001 changed the game in a substantive way. The idea of becoming an airline pilot just isn't interesting to young people anymore. I run a flight school now...I see it daily. Of 125 students, I know of 4 who want to make a career of it. Add all the impending retirements to the mix and the continued public relations disasters that plague the industry (Buffalo, The Senate hearings, numerous high vis. accidents, public discussion about pay etc in the media), people are just continued to be scared away from the industry.

Even those who are furloughed or like me walked away from the Regionals have in many cases, found better paying jobs. What's the incentive to go back as things stand?

The new paradigm shift will see the airlines testing the waters to see what they can do to attract and retain talent while still turning a talent. That will mean increased fares, but then again, flying in it's heyday wasn't meant as a replacement for the greyhound bus - it cost more and those who wanted to fly had to pay it. That led to increased pay to those professionals who worked in the industry.

If people want to fly and airlines want to make money, they're going to have to all raise their fares...it's as simple as that. Time for some reregulation.

 

[jmreii]

I remember listening to the head of the training department lecture to the new hire class that I was part of that there is a paradigm shift in the industry. Pilots won't likely find much upward mobility and the pay scales will be substantially lower. This was in 2002. I think we're about to see another paradigm shift, but I disagree with those who say it is just like every other up and down rythm in the industry.

2001 changed the game in a substantive way. The idea of becoming an airline pilot just isn't interesting to young people anymore. I run a flight school now...I see it daily. Of 125 students, I know of 4 who want to make a career of it. Add all the impending retirements to the mix and the continued public relations disasters that plague the industry (Buffalo, The Senate hearings, numerous high vis. accidents, public discussion about pay etc in the media), people are just continued to be scared away from the industry.

Even those who are furloughed or like me walked away from the Regionals have in many cases, found better paying jobs. What's the incentive to go back as things stand?

The new paradigm shift will see the airlines testing the waters to see what they can do to attract and retain talent while still turning a talent. That will mean increased fares, but then again, flying in it's heyday wasn't meant as a replacement for the greyhound bus - it cost more and those who wanted to fly had to pay it. That led to increased pay to those professionals who worked in the industry.

If people want to fly and airlines want to make money, they're going to have to all raise their fares...it's as simple as that. Time for some reregulation.

If you are describing a industry with less passengers because of increasing fares generating the need for less airlines driving the wages up of the employees that's left behind. I can see your vision.

 

[Fred Rogers]

Or generated in Guatemala to replace everyone when Cabotage is legalized.

That's why you vote Democrat ;-)

 

[ASA_Aviator]

The bottom line is that it's insane to spend $160,000 on a career that pays $22,000 a year and, for most, tops out at $100,000. A lucky few may reach $220,000 by the time they are in their 50s, but most will be in the $100-150K range from their mid-30s to 50s. Most Doctors and Lawyers will beat those figures by a decade. Ten years at $100,000 is a million dollar difference.

I know a person who is a family practitioner who spent $250,000 on her medical education, and didn't complete residency until she was 33, and has just been practicing a little over a year. She makes low $100s. Doctors salaries aren't all they are cracked up to be, unless you are a surgeon, or other in-demand specialist. Even then, the difference in the number of years of residency and other training makes the calculations favor other careers. It is better to make a smaller amount over a longer period of time than a larger amount for a short amount of time.

I find it funny how many people on here talk about doctors and their pay, and most of them (surprise) don't know WTF they are talking about.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

In ages past, hiring has gotten tight enough that major airlines were hiring ab-initio off the street guys who'd never been in a cockpit before in their lives. We're still a long, long way from ever seeing that again.

By long, long way, do you mean the 3 years it will actually be? The lack of new starts, plus the number of retirements equals a MAJOR problem for the regionals in 3 years, and by definition, the major airlines in 3-5 years.

 

[Skippy]

I know a person who is a family practitioner who spent $250,000 on her medical education, and didn't complete residency until she was 33, and has just been practicing a little over a year. She makes low $100s. Doctors salaries aren't all they are cracked up to be, unless you are a surgeon, or other in-demand specialist. Even then, the difference in the number of years of residency and other training makes the calculations favor other careers. It is better to make a smaller amount over a longer period of time than a larger amount for a short amount of time.

I find it funny how many people on here talk about doctors and their pay, and most of them (surprise) don't know WTF they are talking about.

how many dr's get furloughed?-- granted , how many pilots get sued for malpractice but still.


i think being a dr has some money limits-- i'd easily rather be a fedex/ups captain ( im not) than a ER doc in new orleans moneywise and schedule wise etc.



why dont dr's have the same problems pilots do?-- the control supply and demand= keeping salaries and benefits high and stable