FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers

[clr4theapch]

http://www.aopa.org/training/articles/2010/100315forecast.html

FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers

By Ian J. Twombly
The FAA’s 20-year forecast issued last week predicts a decreasing amount of student pilots in the short-term, followed by very slow growth in the mid- and long-term.
It is estimated that slightly more than 72,000 student pilots were registered with the FAA in 2009, down from almost 81,000 a year before. According to the forecast, the number won’t again reach 2009 levels until 2013; next year is expected to be the worst with the forecast bottoming out at roughly 69,000 student certificates.
The flight training industry has been struggling since Sept. 11, 2001. In fact, student certificates aren’t expected to reach the year 2000’s historical high of more than 93,000 for the entire forecast period.
The one bright spot in the forecast is light sport aircraft pilot certificates, which the FAA expects to increase at a rate of more than 7 percent for the forecast period, and more than 25 percent over the short-term.


Seems the Airlines better start paying better lest they run the well dry of new students down the road... you young guys just starting out will be glad for the age 65 rule then..so will the airlines...

 

[samballs]

72,000 will be more than enough, even if only a third of them move to commercial.

 

[AntiJedi]

Given the cost of rentals alone, the decrease doesn't surprise me. With the cost of rentals going up, and real wages going down---especially for the younger set---the average age of getting the license should be going up as well. Back when I got my Private, $40/hr for a 152 was a lot of money. Now, with a 152 in my area going for $110/hr, only the affluent people in town can afford it, but they most likely already have their ratings.

 

[Metro752]

This is in the wrong section of the message board. THis is the regionals section, not the student pilots/training section. Moderators, please move this junk out of here. Nobody cares about who might train to become a pilot.

 

[beagle pilot]

This is in the wrong section of the message board. THis is the regionals section, not the student pilots/training section. Moderators, please move this junk out of here. Nobody cares about who might train to become a pilot.

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

What percentage of student pilots actually end up with a PP certificate? I bet maybe 1/2 - 2/3 at best.

 

[152SIC]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

Agreed 100%. Good post.

Do these student numbers also include foreign students training in the US for their respective countries?

 

[Amish RakeFight]

All should relish this as a schadenfreude moment.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

What percentage of student pilots actually end up with a PP certificate? I bet maybe 1/2 - 2/3 at best.

A recent study concluded it was somewhere in the neighborhood of 289/864ths

 

[crj567]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

Or generated in Guatemala to replace everyone when Cabotage is legalized.

 

[captain822]

Table 29 on the above link should be of most interest to us. It forecasts commercial pilot certificates.

2007-2008: Increase of almost 10,000 new commercial certificates
2008-2009: Increase of almost 1,000 new commercial certificates
2009-2010: DECREASE of almost 800 commercial certificates
2010-2011: Increase of almost 200 commercial certificates
2011-2012: DECREASE of almost 1,000 commercial certificates
2012-2013: DECREASE of almost 4,000 commercial certificates
2013-2014: DECREASE of almost 100 commercial certificates
2014-2015: DECREASE of almost 100 commercial certificates
2015-2016: Increase of almost 1600 commercial certificates

If their forecast is remotely accurate, there will only be a net gain of 200 commercial certificates this year, and a net loss of 5200 commercial certificates between 2011-2015, which is probably when we'll see most of the age 65 guys retiring, creating another huge shortage followed by an increase of 1600 new commercial certificates in 2016. Somewhere in this time span, airlines will merge, contracts will get better, wages will get higher, stricter rest rules and hiring minimums will be implemented, and the next generation of new pilots will have something to look forward to (hopefully!).

 

[Skippy]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

I disagree on 2. Supply and demand? Thats an economic law- there will always be plenty of pilotsthe question is how good are they and how many hours do they have. Thats funny applying economic law as if being a pilot is a commodity--- now a dr. Thats a commodity profession not pilots- would you rather go to the cheapest dr for open heart surgery or the best-?

We suck, the smart pilots know this as well as there are plenty of pilots ready at the helms when some decide to leave the industry- yet fo pay doesnt go down with all the supply herego law doesnt apply.

 

[Metro752]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

Agreed 100%. Good post.

Do these student numbers also include foreign students training in the US for their respective countries?

I said what I said because I am tired of this new moderator moving threads all over the place.

This article is not NEWS either.

I do agree you have valid questions and responses though.

To the moderator(s):

Stop moving threads so much. You're smothering this message board.

 

[crj567]

I said what I said because I am tired of this new moderator moving threads all over the place.

This article is not NEWS either.

I do agree you have valid questions and responses though.

To the moderator(s):

Stop moving threads so much. You're smothering this message board.

Good points-

-This place is turning into a Ghost town.... A very politically correct ghost town, but a ghost town nonetheless...

-Chirp, chirp....

(How many threads had posts today on the major boards? Five, six... ) Lookout internet-we are gonna overload the whole "information superhighway" with politically correct hugs and smootches...

 

[ultrarunner]

I'm all for less supply. We all should be, right? Why would any currently employed pilot in the industry right now NOT support a decrease in supply?

I like those numbers above!

What am I missing?

 

[crj567]

I'm all for less supply. We all should be, right? Why would any currently employed pilot in the industry right now NOT support a decrease in supply?

I like those numbers above!

What am I missing?

Yep-

I like the numbers too-until the airlines declare some sort of staffing "emergency" and come up with a way to get MPL or some sort of cabotage.

 

[beagle pilot]

I disagree on 2. Supply and demand? Thats an economic law- there will always be plenty of pilotsthe question is how good are they and how many hours do they have. Thats funny applying economic law as if being a pilot is a commodity--- now a dr. Thats a commodity profession not pilots

Of course we're a commodity. As you alluded, it's the plentifulness of pilots which has contributed to the present circumstances. While it is true several unscrupulous airlines have hired pilots with the bare minimum qualifications, the current and forthcoming changes in airline pilot requirements resulting from the Colgan aftermath is a game changer. Another game changer is the thread topic: dwindling numbers of new pilots.

Although airlines, through RAPA and ATA, will push for "relief" such as MPL as crj567 suggested, the Colgan legacy will prevent that from being very easy to accomplish. While money often talks loudest in Washington, sometimes politics prevails such as what is happening in this instance.

 

[crj567]

Of course we're a commodity. As you alluded, it's the plentifulness of pilots which has contributed to the present circumstances. While it is true several unscrupulous airlines have hired pilots with the bare minimum qualifications, the current and forthcoming changes in airline pilot requirements resulting from the Colgan aftermath is a game changer. Another game changer is the thread topic: dwindling numbers of new pilots.

Although airlines, through RAPA and ATA, will push for "relief" such as MPL as crj567 suggested, the Colgan legacy will prevent that from being very easy to accomplish. While money often talks loudest in Washington, sometimes politics prevails such as what is happening in this instance.

Your theory is real fine and dandy, but it will break down when the public figures out they can fly from NY to SFO for $72 each way (when either MPL of cabotage rolls around.) The public doesn't really give a rat about safety-they think they will just get a sprained elbow from and accident, and will be win $17 million from their lawsuit for the inconvenience.

-Face the truth-to the public, politicians, and media-we are just a bunch of overpaid bus drivers who drink way too much.

 

[clr4theapch]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

This is exactly why I posted this thread here.. I started the thread!!. I thought it would be of the most interest and impact here in the regionals board.. maybe another MOD will move my thread.. ??

 

[beagle pilot]

This is exactly why I posted this thread here.. I started the thread!!. I thought it would be of the most interest and impact here in the regionals board.

It's very appropriate here or on any airline/commercial pilot board since a pilot shortage affects all of us just as pilot overages have done.

Here's the link to the ALPA article I mentioned previously: http://www.alpa.org/portals/alpa/magazine/2007/JJ2007_PilotShortage.pdf

Here's another on from February 2001. While exact circumstances have changed, the history and the potential consequences remain the same: http://cf.alpa.org/internet/alp/2001/feb01p18.htm

 

[ackattacker]

In ages past, hiring has gotten tight enough that major airlines were hiring ab-initio off the street guys who'd never been in a cockpit before in their lives. We're still a long, long way from ever seeing that again.

 

[152SIC]

Great links Beagle Pilot! Interesting to read for sure.

 

[wrxpilot]

72,000 will be more than enough, even if only a third of them move to commercial.

I doubt it has EVER been anywhere close to that amount.

 

[A-V-8]

72,000 will be more than enough, even if only a third of them move to commercial.

The FAA website has a presentation on it that shows only about 2-3 out of 500 will ever earn an ATP. Many of those recent students are foreigners. They laugh at what we are paid. I don’t know where the slides are and I am not motivated enough to find them.

The damage has been done via the economy and the RLA. Most of the political decisions that will affect my career have already been made. I am not very optimistic about aviation in this country for my career and I have 29.5 years left.

I am looking for opportunities overseas for now. If the tide turns so be it but even if there is a shortage it doesn’t mean that we will get paid more. It means that the government will start paying for licenses to flood the market with pilots. There are other scenarios like letting foreign airlines fill the market.

 

[motch]

The FAA website has a presentation on it that shows only about 2-3 out of 500 will ever earn an ATP.

Do you really think there will only be @360 ATP issued out 72000 applicants?!

Reality is, there will be no shortage of pilots available.
There may be a shortage of pilots willing to fly under a poor contract, but that is another story.

 

[beagle pilot]

The damage has been done via the economy and the RLA. Most of the political decisions that will affect my career have already been made. I am not very optimistic about aviation in this country for my career and I have 29.5 years left.

Does this mean you are leaving for a better, more financially stable career or that you are into masochism?

I started in this business as my third career at the age of 35 in 1991. It started out well enough then quickly stagnated and stalled for several years. It picked up again just before hitting another at the end of 2001. C'est la vie. Welcome to the airline business!

It reminds me of this joke:

A guy walks into his local bar and is hit immediately by a dreadful smell, which isn't usually there.
"What's that smell?" he asked the bartender in disgust. A stranger; a skinny, unremarkable looking man, raised his hand apologetically: "That's from me." he said. The stranger then went on to explain that he was with the traveling circus that had just rolled into town, and his job was elephant keeper. The elephant, who didn't travel well, permanently had a dodgy digestion. Every morning, one of his tasks was to give it an enema. "you never get out of the way in time", he said apologetically, "then, of course, there's the constant clean up".

The local man was shocked. "You have to do this every day? The man nodded "Sometimes twice a day". "But that's terrible!" exclaimed said the local man, utterly horrified. "Why don't you find a better job?"
Now it was the the stranger's turn to looked horrified.
"WHAT....? And leave showbusiness..?"

 

[beagle pilot]

Reality is, there will be no shortage of pilots available.
There may be a shortage of pilots willing to fly under a poor contract, but that is another story.

A shortage is a shortage, but you are correct there won't be an actual shortage. What will happen, as always in these things and as the links pointed out, market forces will change to avert any actual shortage for one very simple reason: airplanes without pilots don't make money.

At the moment we're on the backside of a cycle where pay, benefits and QOL are so low that young college students are electing to go into career fields other than aviation. Those who track these things for the aviation industry have noted the potential problems. Before the recent economic disaster in the fall of 2008, Netjets had given their pilots a very lucrative contract for the simple reason they saw the coming "shortage" and wanted to attract the best pilots to their company before the airlines swept them up. After the economy rebounds, hopefully later this year or early next, the low number of pilots being trained will be foreseen as a serious problem.

 

[zasca]

Daniel Webster College is shutting down it's flight training department. Wonder how much the current climate affected that decision. They've been around for awhile...

 

[NoJoy]

It costs an insane amount of money now to be a proffesional pilot. Add to that the starting wage at most regionals is terrible (around $19.00hr) and tack on another 5 years to be upgrade as CA (thanks to the age 65 rule) and the average pilot will not see the "Majors" until their mid to late 30s if they stay in the 121 world that long.

 

[motch]

It costs an insane amount of money now to be a proffesional pilot. Add to that the starting wage at most regionals is terrible (around $19.00hr) and tack on another 5 years to be upgrade as CA (thanks to the age 65 rule) and the average pilot will not see the "Majors" until their mid to late 30s if they stay in the 121 world that long.

Just wondering what you consider an "insane amount"?
A 4 yr degree will cost you between 50-80 grand.. maybe more if you look at top tier colleges.
Getting your private to CFI/CFII/MEI will cost between 50-80 grand.

Expensive, sure. But not insane. It's a career, not just a job.

Do you think Doctors, Lawyers, Professional Engineers think their costs are "insane". It's the cost of getting into the industry.

One major problem with our industry is that we had a period where alot of pilots got lucky and didn't have to pay large dues to get in. Then because of timing, they got a quick upgrade.
I flew with FO's at my old job with 250-500 hours, low multi time and some with just 2 yr degrees.

There are probably a couple of thousand ATP rated pilots on the street today due to furloughs that need to come back to their original jobs or get hired at a new carrier.
Real hiring won't start up again till 2011-2012 and who knows how long it will last.
If 2013 comes around and the regionals have problems finding pilots, I'll believe we have a problem. But don't really see it happening.