Expressjet or Pinnacle? What would you do?

[FSB99]

i'm not throwing stones at you, NWA, but you seem to be pretty sure of things, when you include the phrase, 'that's a fact.' problem is, new hires this month may not upgrade before 7 years. then again, they may upgrade in 3 years. or, current captains will be downgraded again, fo's will be furloughed, or the whole shabang may shut down and xjet will cease to exist. who knows?!


my point is, just hard to say with any certainty how long it'll take to upgrade. look at current data, and you can say 5 years. look at trending forecasts, you can say 7 years.. or more optimistic data will say 3 years.

 

[145FO]

NWA could be right

It is impossible to accurately predict what the upgrade time will be at CoEx in the future. If you look at the numbers, there are 2500 pilots right now and we will probably end up with around 2800 pilots when all the planes are delivered (roughly 10 pilots per plane +/-). So if you were hired today as number 2501, you would need to become number 1400 to upgrade (half of 2800). Continental will take 250 flowbacks, the 112, and about 200 that passed the sim ride. After that where are our pilots going to go? How many captains have you flown with in the last 2 1/2 years that have applied to other airlines? I can count the number of captains I've flown with who have apps out on two hands. So my theory is that after the 562 +/- go to Cal the movement will stop which would leave a new hire today around 1900 on the seniority list. Also, it will probably take about 3 more years for all 562 pilots to go to Cal. I think a pilot hired today at CoEx will be an FO for a long, long time. Of course this is the airline biz so anything can happen.

I don't know how many pilots Pinnacle has or how many aircraft they have on order. You just can't base future upgrade times on how long the current upgrades have been with the company.

Feel free to flame away and tell me where I'm wrong.

P.S. where's the spell checker?

 

[Bjet Driver]

You guys would have better luck picking tomorrow's lotto numbers. What's the rush to upgrade anyway, is United hiring?

 

[145FO]

What's the rush to upgrade anyway, is United hiring?

MONEY!! $30,000 just doesn't go as far as it used to.

 

[dondk]

As a PCL pilot.. I would agree that 2-3 years is a bit on the optimistic side presently. We only have about another 30 aircraft to be delivered (130 captains give or take). We have about 900 pilots on the books and the last upgrade was about 580. Between the group who CAN hold Captain and the group BIDDING for Captain is about 150 pilots. Those 150 either will have the time to upgrade or are waiting for the NWA call back.

My point.. we have enough to cover the last 30 or so aircraft, we "may" dip into the low 600's in seniority but I doubt we will go much past that.

If the crystal ball (or the rumor mill) brings us a few more jets.. you will see more senior peeps take the slot versus it going junior. There are still a good 40 "hold out's" riding the top of the FO list.

Second point.. Seniority number 900 or better.. he/she may have a 100-150 people who don't have the time, but they will need a good 40 more jets (above the 129) to be given a chance at upgrade within 3 years.

I can't speak for COEX, but here at the link.. no more jets will equal a long time as a FO and soon.. a very long time sitting reserve. We were only suppose to go to 1200-1300 pilots anyway, and we are just about there.

 

[Lear70]

Dondk hit it on the head as usual. Only thing to add is that the alternate list on Vacancy 04-05 Final that came out had a 600 seniority guy as the 3rd or 4th in line for DTW. My guess is seniority somewhere mid 600's and that'll be about the end of the upgrade line sometime in January... right about the time our early negotiations comes to a fruitless end and we settle in for a long and bitter contract dispute (3 or 4 years).

I was hoping there would be better staffing by now, but unfortunately it looks like the wise ones down on Nonconnah fully intend to staff using people's days off, so wherever you're at come January at Pinnacle, prepare to be stuck there for a long, long time.

 

[another cfii]

Before someone hijacks this thread into another flame bait, hope it will
stop before it turns an ugly turn.

I myself am one of the junior guys on PCL, and hearing talks that
everybody's upgrading in 18 mo. is just ridiculous! When they do the
math, then it's crystal clear, it's very stretching we'll get close to 1300
pilots when all things settle, with our crew manning model, probably the
cutoff is about 650 or so, give or take.
Without any new jets, most eligible FO will just sit along the fence,
wait and see, until they can move around the bases. So it may look
rosy right now, but when it stops, it screeches!

PS: Does anybody saw the ad ALPA puts for COEX in USA Today? Man,
uniform looks sharp!

Fly safe.

 

[TEXAN AVIATOR]

Express jet