Expressjet concessionary LOA/TA out

[djsk]

Actually you don't. CAL hedge 20% I believe at $140 so their fuel cost have not been cut in half.

CAL just lost over $200 million in 2008 3rd quarter

ExpressJet has lost over $70 million this year and at the current rate is 3-6 months from bankruptcy

CAL owns the 200 ERJs and it is in our contract that if XJT goes chapter 11 or 7 CAL will take their planes back at a rate of about 10-15 a month and ship them to CHQ and SKW to less paid pilots.

Why would CAL renegotiate our CPA if they are getting the lowest 50 seat jet costs? That is not how business works.

What you claim you know is far from the facts.

Jeez. Look...

1. Fine then, 80% of their fuel is now 50% cheaper or will be as the crack spread continues to fall. Hopefully they shorted a bit of oil as an insurance policy against that stupid hedge. Either way, 50% of the cost of running the airline is down 30-50% however you argue it.

2. CAL BEAT revenue and EPS guidance this quarter. The third quarter still had the high fuel prices. Third quarter didn't have the standby or bag fees that most people are paying without complaint. Third quarter didn't have the capacity cuts yet.

Also, they took a 50 million hit for hurricane ike, and already wrote down 63 million on the hedges. So really it was only a 123 million loss or so.

Going forward the balance sheet is cleaned up and oil is where it was last year so fuel should get closer to the 2.16 instead of 4.00 a gallon over the quarter. Fees and revenue are up and capacity is down. Gas guzzling CRJs are being parked. They are going to make money!

3. How much of that is branded flying loss though. And how much better is charter going to look with cheaper gas.

4. They can't ship them to skywest because it would take months for them to create an ERJ program, do the proving runs, write manuals, get the parts, and start the flying. Even CHQ would be in fits over getting the XR incorporated. You can't move that quick on that many planes.

Look, everyone benefits when we can say "look, xjet has this in the contract and we want it also" Why are you admitting defeat so easily?

 

[V1rowt8]

Jeez. Look...

1. Fine then, 80% of their fuel is now 50% cheaper or will be as the crack spread continues to fall. Hopefully they shorted a bit of oil as an insurance policy against that stupid hedge. Either way, 50% of the cost of running the airline is down 30-50% however you argue it.

2. CAL BEAT revenue and EPS guidance this quarter. The third quarter still had the high fuel prices. Third quarter didn't have the standby or bag fees that most people are paying without complaint. Third quarter didn't have the capacity cuts yet.

Also, they took a 50 million hit for hurricane ike, and already wrote down 63 million on the hedges. So really it was only a 123 million loss or so.

Going forward the balance sheet is cleaned up and oil is where it was last year so fuel should get closer to the 2.16 instead of 4.00 a gallon over the quarter. Fees and revenue are up and capacity is down. Gas guzzling CRJs are being parked. They are going to make money!

3. How much of that is branded flying loss though. And how much better is charter going to look with cheaper gas.

4. They can't ship them to skywest because it would take months for them to create an ERJ program, do the proving runs, write manuals, get the parts, and start the flying. Even CHQ would be in fits over getting the XR incorporated. You can't move that quick on that many planes.

Look, everyone benefits when we can say "look, xjet has this in the contract and we want it also" Why are you admitting defeat so easily?

Amen Brother!! If the powers to be at Cal have any sense, they would not pull A/C from XJT to fly at any other regional. Logistically it would be a nightmare in the short run and would not be feasible. XJT pilots have leverage if they, we stand together and only if we stand together.

 

[007]

Amen Brother!! If the powers to be at Cal have any sense, they would not pull A/C from XJT to fly at any other regional. Logistically it would be a nightmare in the short run and would not be feasible. XJT pilots have leverage if they, we stand together and only if we stand together.

Yeah, because CAL has always thought everything through before taking action...like giving us 66 XR's, and figuring out after the fact that they couldn't park the Q400's on the hardstands in EWR. Or the IAH Litterbox disaster.

I think you're giving old Larry to much credit...spend a dollar to save a dime, remember.

Just being the Devil's advocate here.

 

[V1rowt8]

Yeah, because CAL has always thought everything through before taking action...like giving us 66 XR's, and figuring out after the fact that they couldn't park the Q400's on the hardstands in EWR. Or the IAH Litterbox disaster.

I think you're giving old Larry to much credit...spend a dollar to save a dime, remember.

Just being the Devil's advocate here.

True, very true

 

[Nevets]

They can't ship them to skywest because it would take months for them to create an ERJ program, do the proving runs, write manuals, get the parts, and start the flying. Even CHQ would be in fits over getting the XR incorporated. You can't move that quick on that many planes.

I think that with the price of fuel going down, it wont help XJT even though it helps CAL. There is nothing in the new CPA that requires CAL to sit at the table if XJT is wanting a better deal. And there is no leverage for XJT to use to compel CAL to come to the table. So I think that the fuel discussion is moot.

As for others taking over if XJT is BK, its also written into the CPA to provide a organized wind down. It may not be SKW but it could very well be Mesa, CHQ, or TSA. Hell, if XJT is in BK, SKW can come in and ask the judge to alleviate its concerns with the pilot contract and whatever else is in the CPA that they want addressed, including a transition agreement. The point is that if XJT is in BK, they are in the mercy of the court and no longer control their own fate. Anything can happen in BK. Its not giving up. Its just looking at the facts and the possible outcomes from those facts.

 

[V1rowt8]

I think that with the price of fuel going down, it wont help XJT even though it helps CAL. There is nothing in the new CPA that requires CAL to sit at the table if XJT is wanting a better deal. And there is no leverage for XJT to use to compel CAL to come to the table. So I think that the fuel discussion is moot.

As for others taking over if XJT is BK, its also written into the CPA to provide a organized wind down. It may not be SKW but it could very well be Mesa, CHQ, or TSA. Hell, if XJT is in BK, SKW can come in and ask the judge to alleviate its concerns with the pilot contract and whatever else is in the CPA that they want addressed, including a transition agreement. The point is that if XJT is in BK, they are in the mercy of the court and no longer control their own fate. Anything can happen in BK. Its not giving up. Its just looking at the facts and the possible outcomes from those facts.

Lets look at BK and the wind down for a sec. If it does take place, do you think that 2200 pilots are going to just sit around and wait for their jobs to be taken? I for one will be looking even harder than I already am. Fortunately I have a b, and c plan in place right now with money in the bank. I am sure that many others are doing the same. That is the leverage that we have, and our MEC, cal and Expressjet management know it. The problem will be that there will not be enough time or resources to replace the flying. It is Continentals best interest to not allow XJT to go into BK period.

 

[Nevets]

Lets look at BK and the wind down for a sec. If it does take place, do you think that 2200 pilots are going to just sit around and wait for their jobs to be taken? I for one will be looking even harder than I already am. Fortunately I have a b, and c plan in place right now with money in the bank. I am sure that many others are doing the same. That is the leverage that we have, and our MEC, cal and Expressjet management know it. The problem will be that there will not be enough time or resources to replace the flying. It is Continentals best interest to not allow XJT to go into BK period.

I'm sure they don't want to see that happen. But I wouldn't hold my breath on that assumption. Of course people will be looking for other jobs and many will leave in the process. But if we are talking about a wind down schedule of 15 aircraft a month, we are talking about more than 150 pilots quitting per month for the staffing to be affected. Again, not the risk I'm willing to call CAL's bluff on again.

 

[V1rowt8]

I'm sure they don't want to see that happen. But I wouldn't hold my breath on that assumption. Of course people will be looking for other jobs and many will leave in the process. But if we are talking about a wind down schedule of 15 aircraft a month, we are talking about more than 150 pilots quitting per month for the staffing to be affected. Again, not the risk I'm willing to call CAL's bluff on again.

True. This scenario would not be calling CALs bluff. If two or three months into this unfortunate wind down where 450 pilots have been handed their walking papers, what do you think the other pilots will do? Not sitting around waiting to get bent over.

 

[Nevets]

True. This scenario would not be calling CALs bluff. If two or three months into this unfortunate wind down where 450 pilots have been handed their walking papers, what do you think the other pilots will do? Not sitting around waiting to get bent over.

No, they would be looking for other jobs and if found, quitting. But unless there are more than ten quitting per airplane removed on the wind down schedule, it wont hurt the staffing.