ExpressJet - Are we screwed?

[The_Russian]

What in the freak is going on here.

I just heard that some of the instructors are heading back to the line, and that no new classes are being filled.

Apparently a slowdown in hiring and training. How is that possible?

Canceling the CRP-AUS branded flight after only 5 months, after much hub-hub from the mayor, I must say.

Not to mention that the stock price is so low, it looks like no one has any faith in our company.

Is the end near?

Get me out of here, before I tear my hair out!

So.....you got a pic? Meeeeooooowww!

 

[MALSR]

I hope the best for you guys, but how is xjt going to turn this around with the 50 seater branded flying? Its a great idea I think but with the wrong airplane.

 

[John Pennekamp]

I hope the best for you guys, but how is xjt going to turn this around with the 50 seater branded flying? Its a great idea I think but with the wrong airplane.

ACA/Independence Air tried that too. Why does airline management always think they can build a better mousetrap with the same failed blueprints?

 

[Whiskerbizkit]

I wish you guys the best, but there is a reason why regionals are steping stones.

 

[MikeSF340]

Everyone is going crazy because we have "slowed" hiring. We have been hiring 80 a month for a year now. The company is losing about 40 pilots a month to attrition and we are not getting any more planes in the near furture. If we keep this much hiring going for too much longer we will have 4000 pilots and only 274 airplanes. The huge hiring push was partly because of attrition and partly because we opened up 3 new bases in a matter of 2 months and needed extra staffing. The pilot list at XJT has over 3000 pilots on it already. We will still be hiring 30-40 a month for the forseable future. Continental cannot pull anymore planes for over a year and a half, delta is contracted through June 2009, and they are going to give branded some time to work. Even if branded fails the airplanes doing branded are mostly the XRs and would probably be put into service with Delta or someone else. The future is VERY uncertain at XJT, but the near future looks ok. Were did I put my Koolaide?

 

[BigShotXJTdrvr]

Not sure why everyone thinks our branded op will be the sole determinant of our success or failure. We have 4 unique revenue streams from our airplanes, and branded is but one. It represents about 12-15% of our flights and not sure what % of our revenue. Part of the success of our company comes from operating so many of the same airplanes. Each new one added becomes cheaper to operate than the last. That's why our management has worked so hard to keep the fleet size intact. Shrink it and each one becomes more expensive and less profitable.

CRP is gone. Some of the AUS flights will probably die too. But there will be new flights added.

I agree 50 jets are not the most efficient based on CASM, but 100 seat planes don't work everywhere. There will always be airlines/markets that want to use them, and if XJT can be the best provider, then we will be around a long time.

 

[vectorvictor]

Not sure why everyone thinks our branded op will be the sole determinant of our success or failure. We have 4 unique revenue streams from our airplanes, and branded is but one. It represents about 12-15% of our flights and not sure what % of our revenue. Part of the success of our company comes from operating so many of the same airplanes. Each new one added becomes cheaper to operate than the last. That's why our management has worked so hard to keep the fleet size intact. Shrink it and each one becomes more expensive and less profitable.

CRP is gone. Some of the AUS flights will probably die too. But there will be new flights added.

I agree 50 jets are not the most efficient based on CASM, but 100 seat planes don't work everywhere. There will always be airlines/markets that want to use them, and if XJT can be the best provider, then we will be around a long time.

IMHO You are right in some ways but wrong in others. The 50 seat CASM can't compete with a large cabin class turbo prop on a leg length of less than 300nm. The time efficiency is non-exsistant and the operating cost is cheaper. It's why colgan is flying the hub out of IAH and is going to be flying out of EWR. The regional jet was a temporary fix in the economic downturn before and exacerbated by 9/11. There will always be a market for point to point flying for Regional Jets under a code share to get folks to the mainline hubs but the useful mission of the aircraft is getting pinched by turbo-props on the short haul and by expanding main-line schedules on the longer haul routes.

100 seat "regional jets" are mainlines answer to their own bulky cost structure for operation. Thus the only reason they make money is that there are plenty of folks willing to fly and service them cheaply. The CASM for a 100 seat RJ is cheaper than say a 737-300 because the crew payscales and benefits (amongst other cost savings like aircraft servicing by non main-line agents, non mainline mnx, non mainline crew schedulint) are FAR cheaper.

My 0.02.

 

[BigShotXJTdrvr]

Depends on which large cabin turboprop you use to compete. If an airplane is constantly down for mx, it can't compete with anything. Not to mention the top-to-bottom costs associated with adding fleet types.

If stage-length profit/cost for jets vs. props was the only consderation for choosing what routes to do, then SWA should be using props for about 1/4 of their routes too. But they don't.

 

[vectorvictor]

Depends on which large cabin turboprop you use to compete. If an airplane is constantly down for mx, it can't compete with anything. Not to mention the top-to-bottom costs associated with adding fleet types.

If stage-length profit/cost for jets vs. props was the only consderation for choosing what routes to do, then SWA should be using props for about 1/4 of their routes too. But they don't.

Yeah sure they have done a GREAT job of fuel hedging so the operating cost is somewhat lower. They also have done a GREAT job with fleet standardization. This cuts Mnx costs and mnx training costs and parts lists etc... They have a GREAT pilot group that works to cut costs (we've all heard 'em asking for shortcuts and such). They use these short routes to feel into their hubs around their system and doing it themselves is cost effective because every quarter they turn a profit.


---HOWEVER, if they used a like sized (130 seats...)turbo-prop on the same short route with all the same advantages that they have on their 737 fleet now, they would operate even cheaper. It's a matter of low altitude efficiency of a turbo fan vs. a turbo prop. The problem with my argument is no one makes a turbo prop that size (yet).

Startup costs adding fleet types are like buying points on a home mortgage. If you plan to be in the plane for a while and you can save money by doing on your CASM you can calculate when you will realize your ROI. In addition from a political financial point-of-view its a lot easier to explain to your shareholders why you spent 20 million in startup costs this year instead of how this section of your business plan lost 4 million a year over 5 years. The top to bottom cost of a turbo-prop versus a turbo fan or turbojet engine operating on a short haul (where say being above 25,000 really helps efficiency) is cheaper. The best analysis I ever heard is that on a typical 1 hour leg length in a 50 seat RJ operating from a national hub you need around 61 seats to realize an operational profit. A two hour flight from the same hub is around 43 seats to profitability.

VV

 

[Twotter Driver]

buddy of mine got hired last week. Last class slated for the year is sept. 16th. No dates beyond that. For now they are just hiring into the pool. On another note, we at CAL are hiring 16-20 a month indefinately! XJT pilots make up 25-30% of our new hires, so I am sure there will continue to be large attrition due to guys bailing to CAL and other majors.
As I told my buddy that just got hired at XJT, it is probablly the best place to be for money and QOL. But I still think the long term future may be kind of a wildcard with the possibility of either new codeshare partners or things heading south with the branded stuff.