expectations for SLI, Pinnacle, Mesaba, Colgan

[Yodafly]

What are your expectations for a combined list and where do you fit relatively in your company. Top 25%, 25%-50%, 50%-75%, 75%-Furlough or New Hire.

 

[RJLoser]

What are your expectations for a combined list and where do you fit relatively in your company. Top 25%, 25%-50%, 50%-75%, 75%-Furlough or New Hire.

It's gonna be bad for everyone.

 

[the palm]

Windfall for Peaknuckle. Mesaba and Colgan....not so much

 

[higney85]

I was told by the DL guy that was on the merger committee one line that is weirdly true.... "If everyone is upset, it was done right". Anything at this point is pure speculation. Until we get a TA on a JCBA the merger committees aren't even convening. I don't see a windfall or staplejob in any of the 3 groups' future.

 

[Kaman]

If I don't get in the left-seat (again!) before SLI...Might be awhile...And, I have been trying to make it clear to anyone that will listen...THIS IS NOT a merger for GROWTH...This is a CONSOLIDATION!!!! 3000 pilots today...5-7 years from now...1500!!! I HOPE I AM WRONG....However, I don't think that I am and this trend of consolidation is going to continue and it is inevitable.

 

[higney85]

If I don't get in the left-seat (again!) before SLI...Might be awhile...And, I have been trying to make it clear to anyone that will listen...THIS IS NOT a merger for GROWTH...This is a CONSOLIDATION!!!! 3000 pilots today...5-7 years from now...1500!!! I HOPE I AM WRONG....However, I don't think that I am and this trend of consolidation is going to continue and it is inevitable.

1500? Have you spent any time looking at the CPA agreements? Pinnacle is already run as thin as possible with old work rules, they can't run leaner than now. 9E alone is almost 1200 pilots. Add Colgan and their CPA, and Mesaba's agreement (through PNCL for the acquisition) and 1500 pilots isn't possible unless performance is so bad that contracts get cancelled or mainline (DL and CO/UAL) go under. Not saying it's not possible, being in aviation never say never, but it is highly unlikely for the total group to get halved.

 

[Kaman]

Honestly, I haven't had a chance to read that document. My statement is based upon what I believe is the strategic business plan of PNCL Corp. based on the statements and memorandums I've read in the past few months.
Continuing consolidation is inevitable in the airline industry, and while Doug Parker at US isn't everyone's favorite guy. He was correct 5 years ago when he predicted a trend toward consolidation, less capacity and less frequency. Fuel costs are not going to come down and will again begin to climb into the near $100/barrel of crude again in the near future. Bottom-line is that to make money you have to reduce costs, and maximize yields per seat my flown. Airline 101 some would say. I am not an expert or business school graduate, but I have been around long enough to see the handwriting on the wall.
PNCL Corp. could very well be an airline of 75 Q-400s and 75 CRJ-900s by the end of this decade if not much sooner. The B+s are going and Colgan is abandoning traditional routes because they just don't generate the revenue margins to justify their continued operation.
NOBODY wants to see airplanes leave the property, but if this company is going be positioned to survive and thrive in the new world order that we are waking up to. Then I wouldn't be shocked to see my prediction come to light. The good news is that in 2012, the age 65 rule kicks in and we will be seeing some real hiring going on at the majors.
Interesting times in which we live...

Regards,

ex-Navy Rotorhead

 

[callowayhd]

I would agree that the majority of the new pinnacles crj200 fleet and saab fleet will be gone in a few years. 76 seat regional aircraft is the new thing and noone likes the 50 seats.

Do not feel too comfortable with the crj200 contract with delta, you now have a JFK base and will NOT meet the performance numbers required per the contract.

Good luck but the reality is majors want to recapture flying that is theirs, the crj200 is no longer profitable with high oil prices. Consolidation usually means shrinkage

 

[SEVEN]

Windfall for Peaknuckle. Mesaba and Colgan....not so much

Keep dream'n.

 

[higney85]

If the combined PNCL fleet ends up to be just Q-400's and -900's and mainline "takes the flying back" I don't see this as a bad thing. Why? The pilots who choose NOT to go to a major (for whatever valid reasons) will still be flying. The recaptured flying will be done at mainline; requiring more staffing at the majors, higher career earnings, and plenty of movement from the regionals to the majors. Can it happen overnight? No. Can it happen over time in a fashion that would not be a disruption to career progression? Yes. The big players in this arena will be the new scope language of the UAL/CO JCBA, the next contract cycle for DL, next cycle for AA, and Usair/AW (if they ever get their train on the right tracks). We all get to watch this unfold going forward.

Thinking only negative will not allow any positives to occur.