Errr! Oil...

[boxjockey]

Just like someone else said. This guy probably has a ton of futures positions, he doesn't like the direction crude is going, so now he is trying to push his own agenda. These people should be publicly beaten for my viewing pleasure.

box

 

[whymeworry?]

Actually, this could be a good sign. You see, whenever so-called analysts and experts predict where the price of oil will go (or where the economy in general will go), they are quite often wrong. I challenge you to check the statments out of Wall Street's experts when oil began to rise. Between $20 and $50 per barrel, MOST of them called for oil prices to stabilize and level off. It was only once oil blew past $60 that they called for extended periods of higher prices. Now that oil is at 60-70 a lot of them are calling for $100 and higher per barrel price of crude. Seems to me that they will be wrong once again and oil will trade lower:

Reasons?
1) There is not as much of a shortage as all the experts predict. Oil went up from $20 to $60 in 3 years on so-called "demand"? What, you mean China and India just tripled their number of automobiles and factories in that time? Come on, I don't think so. Oil went up due to speculators, traders and, most important: OPEC. The cartel finally got their $hit straight and got every member to play ball on production quotas.

2) Traders have bid up the price of oil due to uncertainty about Al-Qaeda penetrating the oil wealth and cutting off the rest of the world. Newsflash: Al Qaeda ain't gonna' win this war. And they will come nowhere near the princes of the Arab world, be it in Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait or the UAE (well, maybe in the UAE but they're running out of oil anyway).

3) Demand... it IS dropping. Analysts like the guy in this speech expect demand to drop over night, so if they don't see an immediate drop they assume demand remains unchanged. It takes time. SUV sales are down 42%, hybrids are up 27%. Give it time, you will see demand give a one-two punch to the oil markets... which means traders will move into some other commodity and the price will slide.

4) The U.S. will gain the upper hand in the terror war within a year. World governments are catching on that they have to deal with the terror issue. The US has more staying power than anyone in the Arab world ever imagined (believe me, I use to live there... before 9/11 they thought we would never attack and if we did attack we would leave as soon as the first soldier got killed). Al Qaeda is running out of cash AND suicide fighters. Eventually this will catch up with the oil markets and the traders won't have any excuses to bid up the price, i.e. there won't be as much uncertainty concerning security in the Middle East.

5) Alternative energy. The big 3 automakers have been hit HARD by the Japanese forray into hybrid vehicles. They're going to have to compete with energy efficient vehicles to survive, plain and simple. The R&D and production of fuel efficient cars is about to grow expotentially. This translates into lower overall demand.


Maybe I'm way off base here but there is no way any economy can suport $190/ barrel oil... or even $100 barrel oil.

 

[h25b]

Actually, this could be a good sign. You see, whenever so-called analysts and experts predict where the price of oil will go (or where the economy in general will go), they are quite often wrong. I challenge you to check the statments out of Wall Street's experts when oil began to rise. Between $20 and $50 per barrel, MOST of them called for oil prices to stabilize and level off. It was only once oil blew past $60 that they called for extended periods of higher prices. Now that oil is at 60-70 a lot of them are calling for $100 and higher per barrel price of crude. Seems to me that they will be wrong once again and oil will trade lower:

Reasons?
1) There is not as much of a shortage as all the experts predict. Oil went up from $20 to $60 in 3 years on so-called "demand"? What, you mean China and India just tripled their number of automobiles and factories in that time? Come on, I don't think so. Oil went up due to speculators, traders and, most important: OPEC. The cartel finally got their $hit straight and got every member to play ball on production quotas.

2) Traders have bid up the price of oil due to uncertainty about Al-Qaeda penetrating the oil wealth and cutting off the rest of the world. Newsflash: Al Qaeda ain't gonna' win this war. And they will come nowhere near the princes of the Arab world, be it in Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait or the UAE (well, maybe in the UAE but they're running out of oil anyway).

3) Demand... it IS dropping. Analysts like the guy in this speech expect demand to drop over night, so if they don't see an immediate drop they assume demand remains unchanged. It takes time. SUV sales are down 42%, hybrids are up 27%. Give it time, you will see demand give a one-two punch to the oil markets... which means traders will move into some other commodity and the price will slide.

4) The U.S. will gain the upper hand in the terror war within a year. World governments are catching on that they have to deal with the terror issue. The US has more staying power than anyone in the Arab world ever imagined (believe me, I use to live there... before 9/11 they thought we would never attack and if we did attack we would leave as soon as the first soldier got killed). Al Qaeda is running out of cash AND suicide fighters. Eventually this will catch up with the oil markets and the traders won't have any excuses to bid up the price, i.e. there won't be as much uncertainty concerning security in the Middle East.

5) Alternative energy. The big 3 automakers have been hit HARD by the Japanese forray into hybrid vehicles. They're going to have to compete with energy efficient vehicles to survive, plain and simple. The R&D and production of fuel efficient cars is about to grow expotentially. This translates into lower overall demand.


Maybe I'm way off base here but there is no way any economy can suport $190/ barrel oil... or even $100 barrel oil.

Yeah, what he said...