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Errr! Oil...

hotwing

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a few
[FONT=Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif]Oil guru says crude could hit $190 this winter [/FONT]
‘Prices are really cheap today and they need to go a lot higher,’ analyst says
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Reuters[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Updated: 3:41 p.m. ET Oct. 19, 2005[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]OTTAWA - Consumers should brace for crude oil and natural gas prices possibly doubling or tripling this winter, Matthew Simmons, a best-selling author and oil-supply bear, said on Wednesday.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"Prices are really cheap today and they need to go a lot higher, and they probably will go a lot higher," Simmons said in Ottawa.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"I am very concerned, given the destructive damage done by (Hurricanes) Katrina and Rita, that the United States must be closer to starting to see significant product shortages than we've seen since 1979."[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Too much got destroyed and too little has been brought back on stream, the Houston-based analyst said.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]He also said that cold weather this winter could bring a very high risk of natural gas curtailment in the United States.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"Either one of those events (oil product shortage or natural gas shortage) could send prices two to three times higher than they are today," he said after a speech in Ottawa.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That could translate into natural gas prices of $40 per million British thermal units from more than $13 now, he said. Doubling or tripling crude would put it in the range of $125 to $190 per barrel.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"Everyone keeps thinking there is a (price) ceiling...There is no ceiling," said Simmons, who wrote in his book "Twilight in the Desert" that Saudi oil output is at or near its peak.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]He said he has seen little sign that higher prices so far have done much to reduce consumption.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Simmons said supplies of heating fuel oil were in okay shape, but could drain fast if the weather turned cold. Diesel is tight and shortages of jet fuel had caused some planes to be diverted from some airports.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"It's going to be painful for people to get used to actually paying real money for a really valuable resource," he said. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Copyright 2005 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]© 2005 MSNBC.com[/FONT]
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mach none

wishin I was on a boat
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If this happens, we don't have to worry about the economy. It will implode! I don't foresee this drastic of an increase occurring without a world war or the middle east being Nuked.
 

Dizel8

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Huh?
I agree with what M0 says, the economy will implode way before it hits 190, thereby reducing demand. Now, it may still rise above where it is today, but it will settle where demand can afford to pay.
 

BoilerUP

Citation style...
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I'd be willing to bet he has a ton of super cheap positions around 80-90/bbl and is hoping to scare the future traders into making him a killing.
 

HoursHore

Medieval Warrior
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Time to start modifying My car with a 50 CAL turret and anti tamper device ala Road Warrior
 

Dizel8

Douglas metal
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Huh?
Just make sure you use a hybrid as platform, not a V8 powered vehicle!
 

ATA For Now!

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But...the artice was written in Ottowa Canada....

What is $190 Canadian? Like $35 US ??

Sorry Canada!

Couldn't resist!

RV
 

klhoard

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.
.
.
Magnetic Power!!!. . . . Magnetic Power!!!! . . . .
.
.
.
 

h25b

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if it weren't for idiots like this guy oil would be about 50-55 dollars/brl...
 

Flic1

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Just another fool trying to get his name out there. One says it's going back to $35, another says $100, this guy says $190. Just another reason to not pay attention to any of these bobbleheads.....:rolleyes:
 

boxjockey

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Just like someone else said. This guy probably has a ton of futures positions, he doesn't like the direction crude is going, so now he is trying to push his own agenda. These people should be publicly beaten for my viewing pleasure. :D

box
 

whymeworry?

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Actually, this could be a good sign. You see, whenever so-called analysts and experts predict where the price of oil will go (or where the economy in general will go), they are quite often wrong. I challenge you to check the statments out of Wall Street's experts when oil began to rise. Between $20 and $50 per barrel, MOST of them called for oil prices to stabilize and level off. It was only once oil blew past $60 that they called for extended periods of higher prices. Now that oil is at 60-70 a lot of them are calling for $100 and higher per barrel price of crude. Seems to me that they will be wrong once again and oil will trade lower:

Reasons?
1) There is not as much of a shortage as all the experts predict. Oil went up from $20 to $60 in 3 years on so-called "demand"? What, you mean China and India just tripled their number of automobiles and factories in that time? Come on, I don't think so. Oil went up due to speculators, traders and, most important: OPEC. The cartel finally got their $hit straight and got every member to play ball on production quotas.

2) Traders have bid up the price of oil due to uncertainty about Al-Qaeda penetrating the oil wealth and cutting off the rest of the world. Newsflash: Al Qaeda ain't gonna' win this war. And they will come nowhere near the princes of the Arab world, be it in Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait or the UAE (well, maybe in the UAE but they're running out of oil anyway).

3) Demand... it IS dropping. Analysts like the guy in this speech expect demand to drop over night, so if they don't see an immediate drop they assume demand remains unchanged. It takes time. SUV sales are down 42%, hybrids are up 27%. Give it time, you will see demand give a one-two punch to the oil markets... which means traders will move into some other commodity and the price will slide.

4) The U.S. will gain the upper hand in the terror war within a year. World governments are catching on that they have to deal with the terror issue. The US has more staying power than anyone in the Arab world ever imagined (believe me, I use to live there... before 9/11 they thought we would never attack and if we did attack we would leave as soon as the first soldier got killed). Al Qaeda is running out of cash AND suicide fighters. Eventually this will catch up with the oil markets and the traders won't have any excuses to bid up the price, i.e. there won't be as much uncertainty concerning security in the Middle East.

5) Alternative energy. The big 3 automakers have been hit HARD by the Japanese forray into hybrid vehicles. They're going to have to compete with energy efficient vehicles to survive, plain and simple. The R&D and production of fuel efficient cars is about to grow expotentially. This translates into lower overall demand.


Maybe I'm way off base here but there is no way any economy can suport $190/ barrel oil... or even $100 barrel oil.
 

h25b

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.....
whymeworry? said:
Actually, this could be a good sign. You see, whenever so-called analysts and experts predict where the price of oil will go (or where the economy in general will go), they are quite often wrong. I challenge you to check the statments out of Wall Street's experts when oil began to rise. Between $20 and $50 per barrel, MOST of them called for oil prices to stabilize and level off. It was only once oil blew past $60 that they called for extended periods of higher prices. Now that oil is at 60-70 a lot of them are calling for $100 and higher per barrel price of crude. Seems to me that they will be wrong once again and oil will trade lower:

Reasons?
1) There is not as much of a shortage as all the experts predict. Oil went up from $20 to $60 in 3 years on so-called "demand"? What, you mean China and India just tripled their number of automobiles and factories in that time? Come on, I don't think so. Oil went up due to speculators, traders and, most important: OPEC. The cartel finally got their $hit straight and got every member to play ball on production quotas.

2) Traders have bid up the price of oil due to uncertainty about Al-Qaeda penetrating the oil wealth and cutting off the rest of the world. Newsflash: Al Qaeda ain't gonna' win this war. And they will come nowhere near the princes of the Arab world, be it in Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait or the UAE (well, maybe in the UAE but they're running out of oil anyway).

3) Demand... it IS dropping. Analysts like the guy in this speech expect demand to drop over night, so if they don't see an immediate drop they assume demand remains unchanged. It takes time. SUV sales are down 42%, hybrids are up 27%. Give it time, you will see demand give a one-two punch to the oil markets... which means traders will move into some other commodity and the price will slide.

4) The U.S. will gain the upper hand in the terror war within a year. World governments are catching on that they have to deal with the terror issue. The US has more staying power than anyone in the Arab world ever imagined (believe me, I use to live there... before 9/11 they thought we would never attack and if we did attack we would leave as soon as the first soldier got killed). Al Qaeda is running out of cash AND suicide fighters. Eventually this will catch up with the oil markets and the traders won't have any excuses to bid up the price, i.e. there won't be as much uncertainty concerning security in the Middle East.

5) Alternative energy. The big 3 automakers have been hit HARD by the Japanese forray into hybrid vehicles. They're going to have to compete with energy efficient vehicles to survive, plain and simple. The R&D and production of fuel efficient cars is about to grow expotentially. This translates into lower overall demand.


Maybe I'm way off base here but there is no way any economy can suport $190/ barrel oil... or even $100 barrel oil.

Yeah, what he said...:D
 
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