ERJ-195, B717, B737-600, Airbus 318?

[corky]

I think the -300 was around 140 pax. A winglets have been studied but I don't think there are plans to put one on it. The benefits were negated by extra weight tough they weren't the blended type put on the 37. The problem with stretching a 717 and making it go farther is it starts to conflict with 737 sales and Seattle already isn't too keen on pushing the adopted ba$tard child. It's a shame because it's the best airplane to ever come out of Long Beach.(next to the DC3)

 

[Seaknight1]

I guess it all depends on where SkyWest wants to head in the future. They could remain the way they are and continue to be a regional parter to the larger airlines or they could flex some and try to become another major line. The 717 and ERJ-170/175/190, would benefit if they were to remain a regional. If they want to grow into a major then the best option would be the 737 series. If they are cut loose by United, they will either have to find another major partner or grow to maintain profitability. Delta looks as if they are moving westward with ASA and Comair. Maybe they plan on haveing them take over routes as time goes on, then releasing SkyWest. This is all speculation on my part, but it is viable.

 

[cl-65link]

"Northwest feed in Memphis." I highly doubt that. I work for Pinnacle and one of the parts of our upcoming IPO is a 10 year "service agreement" with NW. This agreement and NW's agreement with Mesaba would cover all the feed NW needs in Minneapolis, Detroit, and Memphis. It is very unlikely that this will change, especially in light of the fact that NW plans on using the money generated from the IPO to fund their employee pension plan. They obviously need to demonstrate to potential investors that Pinnacle has a well-defined and stable future.

 

[120% Torque]

Seaknight, You are probably right concerning the ERJ195. A 717 stretch might fit the needs of an independant operation however. But as Corky mentions above, Boeing doesn't seem too interested in expanding the 717 program cutting into their beloved 737 market. This may be smart but it may be dumb as the 736 doesnt seem to be a very economical airplane compared to its bigger brothers.

CL65Link, I kind of hope you are right about Pinnacle having the market wrapped up over there but it seems some of the Majors like to "diversify" (read whipsaw) to meet their objectives in contracts, etc. Frankly I would rather see SkyWest capitalize on an independant operation where they can be better rewarded for delivering the high quality product they are know for. I hope Pinnacle pilots do continue their near exclusive arrangement with NWA. BTW, I'm not too familiar with Airlink. Is Pinnacle an offspring from Express one and who are the other players besides Mesaba? How big is Pinnacle compared to its other airlink brothers and are they all growing the same. One other question, does NWA own all of Pinnacle and Mesaba and that is how they are able to generate money from an IPO? Thanks in advance for the info.

 

[hopeful]

Why would Jetblue sell themselves to skywest? Don't you think it would be the other way around? Big Brothers usually don't get beat up by their little brothers.

Skywest is a regional and even if they bought bigger airplanes it would be hard for them to grow into those shoes. They have the regional metality and it would be hard to break that. Are they going to pay a 737 captain $67 an hour? Good Luck with that.

 

[cl-65link]

The problem with Memphis and expansion of NW flying there is the fact that it is NW's smallest hub, with approx. 175 departures per day(pre-9-11). I don't know the exact number of departures currently at Memphis, however NW, just this week negotiated with Airbus to delay deliveries of A-319/320 aircraft from 2004 to 2006. It doesn't look like they plan on any expansion for the foreseeable future. They have already removed some DC-9's from service(not mothballed) and parked them in the desert, which you can do when you own the aicraft and have no lease payment to make.

 

[cl-65link]

To respond to questions about Pinnacle and NW, yes we used to be Express I, yes we are currently owned by NWAC(not NWA, ie-parent company), they do plan an IPO, if the stock market ever rebounds, and they do own a part of Mesaba. Pinnacle currently is hiring(about 75% of new hire classes to be filled by furloughed NW pilots). We currently have approximately 600 pilots, are slated to receive 94 CRJ's, and we have about 50 now. Mesaba is furloughing and has some backward movement within the company. Northwest purchased Express I from Mike Brady in 1997 for approximately $40 million and then booted us out of MSP. If you have any other questions, fire away.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Well, how is Skywest going to operate these airplanes? Both UAL & DAL scope prohibits code share with an airline operating the "permitted aircraft types." Even under a separate subsidiary structure it would be impossible the way the current contracts are worded.

Besides, if the Delta, NWA and Continental code share deal does not go through, (as it may not because the airlines don't like the DOT service requirements to underserved airports) then the DAL contract enters its "snap back" provision which cuts Connection to 37% of the flying. If that happens (possible) then Connection is over the limit by as many as 100 airframes (based on 3,500 hr yearly utilization).

 

[120% Torque]

Good information and questions cl-65link and ~~~^~~~. cl65link, why is Mesaba having such problems while you guys are growing? Also, what kind of timeframe are you given to take delivery of the 94 CRJ's? I must admit, adding SkyWest as another code share only makes sense in one area and that is to increase the bargaining power of Northwest with Mesaba for example. Also, much like Delta is overlapping it's Delta Connection flying with several outfits Northwest may want to "strike proof" its territory as well. That is just a guess though. ~~~^~~~, I believe there are those who are now saying scope is nearly dead as Bankruptcy continues to ripple throughout the industry. I dont know if that is true, but certainly contracts are currently being changed and I know that SkyWest is looking for more flexability in it's contracts as it agrees to further cost cuts from Delta and United, so that could explain SkyWests ability to do this.

Does anybody know anything about COEX? I know they are pretty big and currently have guys on furlow. Would Continental ever look to pick up another separate feeder airline?

 

[cl-65link]

Mesaba happens to be in section 6 contract negotiations and in mediation since June of last year, I believe. Mesaba holdings just purchased BigSky last fall, no doubt to threaten Mesaba pilots and to force them to accept a sub-standard contract. After Pinnacle lost all MSP flying at the beginning of '98, we were eventually down to about 220 pilots later that year. When the NW pilots strike in august of '98 was over, NW decided to purchase CRJ's. They came to us and said we need a new contract from the pilots at Pinnacle and then we will probably award a large chunk of the CRJ order to Pinnacle. So we began contract negotiations with the company in the fall(our old contract still had two years to go) and had a new contract to vote on in the spring of '99. While the contract was not "industry-leading" for the time, it was average in most areas(below average in some) and it passed membership ratification. This is what pilots at Mesaba, in many ways, face now(with the added complication of BigSky). It must be said that unfortunately, NW management seems to excel at the so called "whipsaw". As far as Pinnacle deliveries go, we are getting 22 CRJ's in '03 and the balance of the order in '04, i believe. On another note, I'm pretty sure that the largest aircraft NW mainline will operate sometime in the future will be the A-319. It's difficult to predict when that will happen, but I believe it will.