ERJ-195, B717, B737-600, Airbus 318?

[cl-65link]

The problem with Memphis and expansion of NW flying there is the fact that it is NW's smallest hub, with approx. 175 departures per day(pre-9-11). I don't know the exact number of departures currently at Memphis, however NW, just this week negotiated with Airbus to delay deliveries of A-319/320 aircraft from 2004 to 2006. It doesn't look like they plan on any expansion for the foreseeable future. They have already removed some DC-9's from service(not mothballed) and parked them in the desert, which you can do when you own the aicraft and have no lease payment to make.

 

[cl-65link]

To respond to questions about Pinnacle and NW, yes we used to be Express I, yes we are currently owned by NWAC(not NWA, ie-parent company), they do plan an IPO, if the stock market ever rebounds, and they do own a part of Mesaba. Pinnacle currently is hiring(about 75% of new hire classes to be filled by furloughed NW pilots). We currently have approximately 600 pilots, are slated to receive 94 CRJ's, and we have about 50 now. Mesaba is furloughing and has some backward movement within the company. Northwest purchased Express I from Mike Brady in 1997 for approximately $40 million and then booted us out of MSP. If you have any other questions, fire away.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Well, how is Skywest going to operate these airplanes? Both UAL & DAL scope prohibits code share with an airline operating the "permitted aircraft types." Even under a separate subsidiary structure it would be impossible the way the current contracts are worded.

Besides, if the Delta, NWA and Continental code share deal does not go through, (as it may not because the airlines don't like the DOT service requirements to underserved airports) then the DAL contract enters its "snap back" provision which cuts Connection to 37% of the flying. If that happens (possible) then Connection is over the limit by as many as 100 airframes (based on 3,500 hr yearly utilization).

 

[120% Torque]

Good information and questions cl-65link and ~~~^~~~. cl65link, why is Mesaba having such problems while you guys are growing? Also, what kind of timeframe are you given to take delivery of the 94 CRJ's? I must admit, adding SkyWest as another code share only makes sense in one area and that is to increase the bargaining power of Northwest with Mesaba for example. Also, much like Delta is overlapping it's Delta Connection flying with several outfits Northwest may want to "strike proof" its territory as well. That is just a guess though. ~~~^~~~, I believe there are those who are now saying scope is nearly dead as Bankruptcy continues to ripple throughout the industry. I dont know if that is true, but certainly contracts are currently being changed and I know that SkyWest is looking for more flexability in it's contracts as it agrees to further cost cuts from Delta and United, so that could explain SkyWests ability to do this.

Does anybody know anything about COEX? I know they are pretty big and currently have guys on furlow. Would Continental ever look to pick up another separate feeder airline?

 

[cl-65link]

Mesaba happens to be in section 6 contract negotiations and in mediation since June of last year, I believe. Mesaba holdings just purchased BigSky last fall, no doubt to threaten Mesaba pilots and to force them to accept a sub-standard contract. After Pinnacle lost all MSP flying at the beginning of '98, we were eventually down to about 220 pilots later that year. When the NW pilots strike in august of '98 was over, NW decided to purchase CRJ's. They came to us and said we need a new contract from the pilots at Pinnacle and then we will probably award a large chunk of the CRJ order to Pinnacle. So we began contract negotiations with the company in the fall(our old contract still had two years to go) and had a new contract to vote on in the spring of '99. While the contract was not "industry-leading" for the time, it was average in most areas(below average in some) and it passed membership ratification. This is what pilots at Mesaba, in many ways, face now(with the added complication of BigSky). It must be said that unfortunately, NW management seems to excel at the so called "whipsaw". As far as Pinnacle deliveries go, we are getting 22 CRJ's in '03 and the balance of the order in '04, i believe. On another note, I'm pretty sure that the largest aircraft NW mainline will operate sometime in the future will be the A-319. It's difficult to predict when that will happen, but I believe it will.

 

[120% Torque]

Wow, it does indeed sound like Northwest is good at the "whipsaw". I dont like the sound of those tactics. What do you mean by NW only operating A319's in the future? What about all their other types?

 

[cl-65link]

i think the -9's will eventually be retired, and the smallest aircraft left will be the 319. They will still have 757, the "whale", and eventually the A-330.

 

[120% Torque]

Thanks for the info, 65! On another note it looks like United is trying to really screw its three express carriers. ACA recently filed suit to get a straight answer from United if it will honor it's contract. They want the BK judge to force United to give this information before the end of February for financial planning and to decide if they need to actively pursuit a different code share partner. On top of this it appears United’s hardball tactics with its creditors may be backfiring. As United has demanded half price deals on most of it's aircraft leases including some of it's newer equipment, creditors seem to be getting fed up and more anxious to get a reasonable payment or possibly a return of some of the newer airplanes. United may think these tactics are the best way to get what they need but I think it could end up doing more damage in the long run. SkyWest and now apparently ACA are threatening to take their RJ's elsewhere if United keeps this crap up. This would instantly not only weaken United more but buoy up it's competitors all in one fell swoop. On top of that I think as some of these regionals get backed into the corner they may be left with little choice but to come out swinging by starting independent "at risk" flying and directly competing with United on the routes they used to feed United on. This type of scenario was the basis that this thread was started on (SkyWest's need for bigger airplanes) and quite probably why some top managers at SkyWest have dropped a hint that bigger airplanes are a very real possibility.

Reversing direction one more time, I think SkyWest would be smart to buy Frontier Airlines and feed the current JetExpress operated by Mesa with it's own possible surplus of RJ's. Frontier's current market Cap is only $150 million. SkyWest has the money and know how to pull this off and grow things from there. America West could be had for just over $100 mil but it has too many liabilities and operational problems. JetBlue and Alaska are out of SkyWest's price range up at over 1 billion each. So, when all is said and done I see SkyWest either 1. Starting a completely new operation with 717's, 737's or A318/9's 2. Buying Frontier and integrating. 3. Buying chunks of United when they go Chapter 7. In the mean time they will do everything they can to secure their current code shares until they can ramp up for any of these other three possibilities. Don’t be surprised to see another code share announced by SkyWest in the very near future also. Of course all of these scenarios and predictions are subject to change and mileage may vary so don’t kill the messenger Do I have any "Devils Advocates"' to help me see the error of my thinking....I've been wrong before!

 

[KFFA]

Where does COEX routes come into play in your thought process. This rumor has been going around now. Either flying in the Neast or down in the carib?

 

[SKYWRJGUY]

Hmm.....

You know, there's more to purshasing an airline that simply paying cash or exchanging stock to the market cap of the target airline. Especially in the industry, debt is one big consideration, as the assumption could just as well bury the buyer as it has the bought.

Additionally, I haven't heard anything about us "ready" to take our RJs and look elsewhere. I've heard we're looking as a backup plan, but not as a threat to get United moving. I don't think UAL is waffling on purpose, I think they're trying to swim upstream with lead weights on their feet.

 

[XJslave]

CL65 how long have you been at 9E? NWA will never let the 9s die the last crew to fly a bus to the boneyard will ride back on a DC9. NWA loves those old hunks of crap.

 

[DoinTime]

Also, much like Delta is overlapping it's Delta Connection flying with several outfits Northwest may want to "strike proof" its territory as well. That is just a guess though.

The NW MEC has veto rights against any new codeshare agreements and they have vowed to have Pinnacle and Mesaba be the exclusive "regional" partners. With the way Duane Worth has been pounding the "brand scope" drum it would be ironic if he allowed his own carrier to violate it. I don't believe that Big Sky, or anyone else, will be getting a piece of the NWA pie any time soon.

 

[Ty Webb]

The problem with stretching a 717 and making it go farther is it starts to conflict with 737 sales

No, Corky, the problem with stretching a B717 and making it go farther" are the **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** UNCOMFORTABLE SEATS!

Ask any B717 pilot, and he'll tell you, the two problems are the hard seats, and the maddening fact that the FMS changes between a default "cruise" speed and a "descent" speed. When ATC hangs a speed on you, which happens just about every flight now, they don;t care if you are level OR descending, and neither should the FMS. 300 assigned is 300 assigned, is 300 assigned, is "300 ASSIGNED!".

Other than that, the B717 definitely does not suck.

 

[corky]

Hey Ty,

I hear you on the seats. They are unconfortable. There were several changes made prior to production based on the Boeing pilots feedback but then again they don't spend 6 to 8 hours in the airplane per day. I spoke with cog engineer for the seats and he hadn't heard of any complaints from the field. If it's really an issue get L.N. or J.O. to write a letter and we'll see what can be done.
As far as the FMS goes I don't really understand what you're talking about. I'm assuming you mean when you're in prof mode and the airplane begins the descent it swithches to a default speed? If that's the case can't you go into the PERF page and enter a descent speed while at cruise? Clarify the scenario and I'll look into it. We have some FMS mods coming out soon. Not sure if your complaint will be addressed.

Corky

 

[Midnight Mike]

Airtran has only positive comments about the 717 and is making noise to Boeing about 717-300, Qantas (formerly Impulse) loves the 717 and has been making noise to Boeing about 713 as well.

The 717 is made for the short hop market, Airtran says that they are saving 20-30% in fuel when compaired against the DC9.

The only drawback for the 717 for the regionals is the price tag, 20-30 million per aircraft, ouch!


Mike