ERJ-195, B717, B737-600, Airbus 318?

[120% Torque]

SkyWest ERJ-195, B717, B737-600, A318?

I posted this above in "Majors" to get their opinion and wanted to post here too, it being relevent to "Regionals":

This is just a theoretical question. IF and I emphasise IF SkyWest were to branch out on it's own independant operation in the 130 seat and less aircraft catagorie size which airplane would be the best choice of those listed above and why? I was perusing some facts and figures and was surprized to see that the Airbus 318 will take off (standard conditions) in 2000 feet less runway than a CRJ-200. Thats pretty amazing. Both Boeing and Airbus make claims and counter claims that each of their aircraft operate at lower costs than their other manufacturers conterpart.

 

[justApilot]

Why not buy Alaska? 737' and MD80's. Anyone heard this rumor yet?

 

[120% Torque]

Hmmm, sounds good!

Alaska is a very fine operation! I asked the above question because of a recent "snippet" released by SkyWest management about flying bigger airplanes. Speculating about things like this is a hobby of mine and possibly nothing will ever become of it but as long as we are speculating.... I have heard the Alaska aquisition rumour. Not sure how SkyWest would fit in with Horizon and combining forces. The Alaska/Horizon match seems to work pretty well as it is. I suppose more RJ's could be a more aggressive feed to Alaska if SkyWest were to get fed up with United's lame treatment and no loyalty to a regional (SkyWest) that has done an extremely good job for them. Also, Alaska mentioned looking at Airbuses recently...I thought that was kind of strange but could be nothing more than getting Boeing to come down on price on future 737 orders. OK, next we have a Frontier Aquisition. Dump Mesa/Great Lakes and let SkyWest and Frontier combine forces and market share. Under that scenario SkyWest would have to dump United because as it stands one of Uniteds current rules says you cant feed another airline at the same Domicile (if I'm not mistaken) and SkyWest currently feeds United in Denver. America West, once again, dump Mesa and I dont know how the rest would work out. Other than those I dont know of any other Airline that SkyWest would be interested in purchasing other than JetBlue and I seriously doubt Dave Neelaman wants to part with his baby right now. The SkyWest CEO did mention a possible code share with NorthWest or Continental but dont they already have plenty of feed? Anybody else care to chime in?

 

[justApilot]

I'm thinking Frontier and Jetblue, myself.

 

[120% Torque]

OK, maybe none of the bigger airplanes above will happen. I just heard from a fairly reliable souce the extended flying opertunities will include all night E-120 flying in and out of Vegas. Also, Continental feed in So Cal and Northwest feed in Memphis. All with the little Bra. Dont see too much opertunity for 130 pax airplanes with these code shares but who knows.

 

[corky]

Though I'm partial to the 717, it's performance, efficiency, dispatch reliablility and proven durability make it a hands down winner in the regional arena. That's what it was designed for. The 737-6 and 318 don't compare. They're heavier, longer range airplanes and the 318 isn't meeting it's performance guarantees not to mention the typical airbus electrical gremlins. The 717 is a hoot to fly. Tons of thrust and lots of modern automation yet still simple fly by cable and a great cabin comforts. It's the only transport that doesn't recycle the cabin air. I should be in sales.

 

[120% Torque]

Yea, I agree that the 717 seems to fit the regional role a bit better. I dont know what SkyWest Managers have/had in mind when talking about bigger aircraft, truley "regional" flights or transcontinental? Just out of curiousity, would a 6'4" tall guy be able to stand up all the way in the cabin of the 717? I know the EMB195 has 6'7" of standing room but not sure about the others.

Here is some "FAA Takeoff Field Length" for different aircraft:

CRJ-200LR 6,290 ft
CRJ-700 5,130 ft
CRJ-700ER 5,500 ft
CRJ-900 6,160 ft
CRJ-900ER 6,462 ft
Boeing 737-600 (110 pax) 5,900 ft
Boeing 717-200 (106 pax) 5,750 ft
Airbus A318 (107 pax) 4,200 ft

 

[120% Torque]

OK, based on the economics and operating efficiency of the 736 I think we can rule that one out. Here is a comment I found on airliners dot net about its economics:

"As SAS was finalizing their criteria when acquiring replacement aircraft for the DC-9 Classic and FK-28,McD-Douglas' financial situation was such that the MD-95 project could flounder,and that left only the 736 as a viable option.In addition,Boeing needed a launch customer for the -600 and gave SAS a price that was extremely favourable.That's how we got the -600.
Experience,however,has shown the operating economics to be very poor for this plane in SAS service,specific fuel consumption being 0.049 KG/Kilometer (compared to the DC-9-41's 0.051,MD-80's 0.045,MD-90's 0.041.737-700 have the same figures as the MD-80 while the rest of the SAS fleet lies around 0.034-38).Latest figures state that SAS needs some 105-107% loadfactor to break even with the -600,and that is for the version with the lowest weight options.
Then there are the flight characteristics of the -600,especially in turbulence;POOR!

And from another person:

I am sorry to be blunt, but the B737-600 is a lousy aircraft and Boeing knows this .. very well. Anyone familiar with B737-600 Direct Operating Cost will know that the aircraft is much too heavy to be competitive against dedicated 100-seat designs. So called 'Shrinks' are never very good economically and certainly not when they are derived from the upgraded B737NG, which is much heavier than the original B737.

The B737-600 is at least 25% heavier than other dedicated 100-seaters. SAS has regretted its purchase from day one and changed to -700 & -800 as quickly as they could. Sales are a disaster, as only political sales have been achieved. No credible airline will fly the -600.


Corky, do you are does anybody else have any info on the proposed downsize and stretch of the basic 717 airframe? Also, does anybody know when the EMB-195 will be available in quantity?

 

[corky]

Yeah, I've been involved with the 717 program for 6 years. We designed both a shrink (-100) and a stretch (-300)and have shelved them both until someone shows interest. McD's criteria was an order of 50 to launch a program. I don't know how many it would take for Boeing to launch it. Most of the tunnel testing is complete. The stretch was a no brainer, the shrink was a bit tricky. We've had recent interest in the stretch so who knows.

The standing height of the cabin is 6'8" floor to ceiling.

 

[120% Torque]

Corky, what is the maximum pax a "stretch" 717 could accomidate? Any chance of a blended wingtip down the road?

 

[corky]

I think the -300 was around 140 pax. A winglets have been studied but I don't think there are plans to put one on it. The benefits were negated by extra weight tough they weren't the blended type put on the 37. The problem with stretching a 717 and making it go farther is it starts to conflict with 737 sales and Seattle already isn't too keen on pushing the adopted ba$tard child. It's a shame because it's the best airplane to ever come out of Long Beach.(next to the DC3)

 

[Seaknight1]

I guess it all depends on where SkyWest wants to head in the future. They could remain the way they are and continue to be a regional parter to the larger airlines or they could flex some and try to become another major line. The 717 and ERJ-170/175/190, would benefit if they were to remain a regional. If they want to grow into a major then the best option would be the 737 series. If they are cut loose by United, they will either have to find another major partner or grow to maintain profitability. Delta looks as if they are moving westward with ASA and Comair. Maybe they plan on haveing them take over routes as time goes on, then releasing SkyWest. This is all speculation on my part, but it is viable.

 

[cl-65link]

"Northwest feed in Memphis." I highly doubt that. I work for Pinnacle and one of the parts of our upcoming IPO is a 10 year "service agreement" with NW. This agreement and NW's agreement with Mesaba would cover all the feed NW needs in Minneapolis, Detroit, and Memphis. It is very unlikely that this will change, especially in light of the fact that NW plans on using the money generated from the IPO to fund their employee pension plan. They obviously need to demonstrate to potential investors that Pinnacle has a well-defined and stable future.

 

[120% Torque]

Seaknight, You are probably right concerning the ERJ195. A 717 stretch might fit the needs of an independant operation however. But as Corky mentions above, Boeing doesn't seem too interested in expanding the 717 program cutting into their beloved 737 market. This may be smart but it may be dumb as the 736 doesnt seem to be a very economical airplane compared to its bigger brothers.

CL65Link, I kind of hope you are right about Pinnacle having the market wrapped up over there but it seems some of the Majors like to "diversify" (read whipsaw) to meet their objectives in contracts, etc. Frankly I would rather see SkyWest capitalize on an independant operation where they can be better rewarded for delivering the high quality product they are know for. I hope Pinnacle pilots do continue their near exclusive arrangement with NWA. BTW, I'm not too familiar with Airlink. Is Pinnacle an offspring from Express one and who are the other players besides Mesaba? How big is Pinnacle compared to its other airlink brothers and are they all growing the same. One other question, does NWA own all of Pinnacle and Mesaba and that is how they are able to generate money from an IPO? Thanks in advance for the info.

 

[hopeful]

Why would Jetblue sell themselves to skywest? Don't you think it would be the other way around? Big Brothers usually don't get beat up by their little brothers.

Skywest is a regional and even if they bought bigger airplanes it would be hard for them to grow into those shoes. They have the regional metality and it would be hard to break that. Are they going to pay a 737 captain $67 an hour? Good Luck with that.

 

[cl-65link]

The problem with Memphis and expansion of NW flying there is the fact that it is NW's smallest hub, with approx. 175 departures per day(pre-9-11). I don't know the exact number of departures currently at Memphis, however NW, just this week negotiated with Airbus to delay deliveries of A-319/320 aircraft from 2004 to 2006. It doesn't look like they plan on any expansion for the foreseeable future. They have already removed some DC-9's from service(not mothballed) and parked them in the desert, which you can do when you own the aicraft and have no lease payment to make.

 

[cl-65link]

To respond to questions about Pinnacle and NW, yes we used to be Express I, yes we are currently owned by NWAC(not NWA, ie-parent company), they do plan an IPO, if the stock market ever rebounds, and they do own a part of Mesaba. Pinnacle currently is hiring(about 75% of new hire classes to be filled by furloughed NW pilots). We currently have approximately 600 pilots, are slated to receive 94 CRJ's, and we have about 50 now. Mesaba is furloughing and has some backward movement within the company. Northwest purchased Express I from Mike Brady in 1997 for approximately $40 million and then booted us out of MSP. If you have any other questions, fire away.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Well, how is Skywest going to operate these airplanes? Both UAL & DAL scope prohibits code share with an airline operating the "permitted aircraft types." Even under a separate subsidiary structure it would be impossible the way the current contracts are worded.

Besides, if the Delta, NWA and Continental code share deal does not go through, (as it may not because the airlines don't like the DOT service requirements to underserved airports) then the DAL contract enters its "snap back" provision which cuts Connection to 37% of the flying. If that happens (possible) then Connection is over the limit by as many as 100 airframes (based on 3,500 hr yearly utilization).

 

[120% Torque]

Good information and questions cl-65link and ~~~^~~~. cl65link, why is Mesaba having such problems while you guys are growing? Also, what kind of timeframe are you given to take delivery of the 94 CRJ's? I must admit, adding SkyWest as another code share only makes sense in one area and that is to increase the bargaining power of Northwest with Mesaba for example. Also, much like Delta is overlapping it's Delta Connection flying with several outfits Northwest may want to "strike proof" its territory as well. That is just a guess though. ~~~^~~~, I believe there are those who are now saying scope is nearly dead as Bankruptcy continues to ripple throughout the industry. I dont know if that is true, but certainly contracts are currently being changed and I know that SkyWest is looking for more flexability in it's contracts as it agrees to further cost cuts from Delta and United, so that could explain SkyWests ability to do this.

Does anybody know anything about COEX? I know they are pretty big and currently have guys on furlow. Would Continental ever look to pick up another separate feeder airline?

 

[cl-65link]

Mesaba happens to be in section 6 contract negotiations and in mediation since June of last year, I believe. Mesaba holdings just purchased BigSky last fall, no doubt to threaten Mesaba pilots and to force them to accept a sub-standard contract. After Pinnacle lost all MSP flying at the beginning of '98, we were eventually down to about 220 pilots later that year. When the NW pilots strike in august of '98 was over, NW decided to purchase CRJ's. They came to us and said we need a new contract from the pilots at Pinnacle and then we will probably award a large chunk of the CRJ order to Pinnacle. So we began contract negotiations with the company in the fall(our old contract still had two years to go) and had a new contract to vote on in the spring of '99. While the contract was not "industry-leading" for the time, it was average in most areas(below average in some) and it passed membership ratification. This is what pilots at Mesaba, in many ways, face now(with the added complication of BigSky). It must be said that unfortunately, NW management seems to excel at the so called "whipsaw". As far as Pinnacle deliveries go, we are getting 22 CRJ's in '03 and the balance of the order in '04, i believe. On another note, I'm pretty sure that the largest aircraft NW mainline will operate sometime in the future will be the A-319. It's difficult to predict when that will happen, but I believe it will.