Emirates aims for 120 A380s... See Reuters Article

[johnsonrod]

If you have Airbus time, and you want to fly the world's biggest airliner, you might want to consider EK as an option. You certainly won't get a chance to fly this big boy anywhere else:

http://www.airliners.net/photo/Emir...41762/L/&sid=f6b459bc5ba10ce5da4db6eacc1a2eb3

See the story below:

Market Movers
Emirates eyes 120 A380s, works with Boeing on 777
Tue, Oct 12 10:56 AM EDT
DUBAI, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Dubai carrier Emirates [EMIRA.UL], the Arab world's largest airline, aims to have 120 Airbus (EAD.PA) A380s when new airport space is available and is working with Boeing (BA.N) on the next generation of 777 jets.

Emirates, whose passengers are growing at 20 percent annually and expects to maintain this level for the next five years, will fulfill all its 90 orders so far for the A380 superjumbo, President Tim Clark told Reuters in an interview.

"We would like some more but we are going to run short of space," he said. "120 was the baseline figure that the planners worked to get where we needed to be, but we couldn't order that amount because it was too many for here so 90 was a compromise."

The carrier will order more when it gets additional space at its home base in Dubai, he added.

The target implies a future Emirates order for 30 of the world's largest airliner, worth $10 billion at list prices, at an unspecified date. If the airline went ahead with its growth plans it would have an A380 fleet worth over $40 billion.

Emirates, already by far the biggest customer for A380, announced a record $11 billion order for 32 superjumbos at the Berlin Air Show in June.
At July's Farnborough Air Show, Emirates also ordered 30 Boeing (BA.N) 777-300ER wide-body planes, a deal worth potentially more than $9 billion. [ID:nWEA0008]

Clark said the airline is collaborating with Boeing to find a solution for the manufacturer's wide-body 777 aircraft, but said he could not share more details.

"We are working with Boeing on the next generation of 777. We are still very interested in a replacement," he said. Boeing has said it is looking at the future of the aircraft which faces competition from the future Airbus A350-1000. (Reporting by Tamara Walid; Editing by Tim Hepher)

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

This kind of growth will lead to the demise of EK within 5-7 years. The whole Middle East aviation industry is built on a fragile "Glass House" which is about to shatter. Emirates could not even fill an A-380 to JFK let alone 120 -380s. Flying around empty airplanes or low value priced seats is a recipe for economic disaster. Emirates will get desperate for new markets which most countries will not allow true open skies and fifth freedom rights and beyond. These pipe dream growth projections cannot be sustained at these levels. The Middle East cannot effectively tap into over half of the world travelers in N. America because of the hub location. If you live in Europe and want to go to N. America, the Middle East is a long ways out of your way.

 

[Hamburger]

These pipe dream growth projections cannot be sustained at these levels.

No way! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/mos...lion-dream-build-The-World-falling-apart.htmlUAE is totally in touch with reality.

They'll have A380 Service to every corner of the world.

 

[johnsonrod]

This kind of growth will lead to the demise of EK within 5-7 years. The whole Middle East aviation industry is built on a fragile "Glass House" which is about to shatter. Emirates could not even fill an A-380 to JFK let alone 120 -380s. Flying around empty airplanes or low value priced seats is a recipe for economic disaster. Emirates will get desperate for new markets which most countries will not allow true open skies and fifth freedom rights and beyond. These pipe dream growth projections cannot be sustained at these levels. The Middle East cannot effectively tap into over half of the world travelers in N. America because of the hub location. If you live in Europe and want to go to N. America, the Middle East is a long ways out of your way.

Both India and China have booming economies with rising numbers of middle class people (many of whom have never flown before). I think I read that several billion people live within 5 hours of Dubai (maybe not the exact number - but close). EK could replace all of their current 777s serving the US with A380s and then cut their rates to fill them. Who knows...

The CEO mentioned that each and every A380 currently on order (90) is "spoken for." Not sure what he means but I think they have a plan...

 

[Varmint]

This kind of growth will lead to the demise of EK within 5-7 years. The whole Middle East aviation industry is built on a fragile "Glass House" which is about to shatter. Emirates could not even fill an A-380 to JFK let alone 120 -380s. Flying around empty airplanes or low value priced seats is a recipe for economic disaster. Emirates will get desperate for new markets which most countries will not allow true open skies and fifth freedom rights and beyond. These pipe dream growth projections cannot be sustained at these levels. The Middle East cannot effectively tap into over half of the world travelers in N. America because of the hub location. If you live in Europe and want to go to N. America, the Middle East is a long ways out of your way.

How much money have you spent on tickets aboard Emirates out of JFk or anywhere on one of their 380s? How do you know for sure if they are or are not filling the airplanes up, this is not public information.

Just to let you know, not all of aviation is based around the US traveller. There are plenty of other nationalities that visit the US whom use Emirates to travel on. The service level, crew appearance level, and quality of the product just can't be matched by US carriers right now.

 

[tyuwerty]

WYpilot,

Why do these expansion plans need to hinge on bringing passengers to the USA?

Is there no traffic between Asia and Europe that might be served? Not everyone wants to travel to JFK.

Half of the world's travellers??? I would like to see some stats on that... Many may travel in the USA, but a $69 flight to FLL is hardly in the same category as an Oslo to BKK.

 

[johnsonrod]

Just read an article discussing how Dubai is strategically located from a geographic standpoint to connect North America and Europe with the Middle East and Asia. How do Persians or Indians get from the West Coast of the US back to Iran or to India or to Sri Lanka? They can go one stop through Dubai from LAX and SFO. Emirates will make it easier to get to anywhere within a 5 hour radius of Dubai - and we are talking about a huge population base.

Are there enough passengers to feed 120 A380s? Not sure. Many of those could replace older A330/40s and 777s. Dubai will need a new airport (one is already in the works - I think it is supposed to operate 5 parallel 12K foot runways and will open in 5-7 years) and it will need to make airfares a bit cheaper to access the larger market. With Dubai's money and its strong intent to become a logistics/trading capital of the world, I wouldn't count them out...

 

[blade230]

Dubai doesn't have any money. They are broke. The UAE (Abu Dhabi), however, does have money.

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

No way! UAE is totally in touch with reality.

Dubai is almost bankrupt and relies upon Abu Dhabi for financial support. The Glass house in Dubai is starting to shatter.

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

Both India and China have booming economies with rising numbers of middle class people (many of whom have never flown before). I think I read that several billion people live within 5 hours of Dubai (maybe not the exact number - but close).

People from China will never fly the wrong way back to Dubai then travel to the US. I don't dispute the numbers of people but these 2 billion people will never be able to fly and fill 120 A-380s. The entire North Anerican market constitutes 50% of all Air traffic. The location of Dubai does not fit for air traffic to/from the N. American markets and most European markets. Take a look at Dubai on the map and then think about East coast traffic to Europe or west coast traffic to Asia. Dubai doesn't fit this and 50% of all air traffic is N. American air travelers. I don't think most N. American countries will sign open sky agreements with Dubai or approve fifth freedom rights or beyond.

 

[Varmint]

Both India and China have booming economies with rising numbers of middle class people (many of whom have never flown before). I think I read that several billion people live within 5 hours of Dubai (maybe not the exact number - but close).

People from China will never fly the wrong way back to Dubai then travel to the US. I don't dispute the numbers of people but these 2 billion people will never be able to fly and fill 120 A-380s. The entire North Anerican market constitutes 50% of all Air traffic. The location of Dubai does not fit for air traffic to/from the N. American markets and most European markets. Take a look at Dubai on the map and then think about East coast traffic to Europe or west coast traffic to Asia. Dubai doesn't fit this and 50% of all air traffic is N. American air travelers. I don't think most N. American countries will sign open sky agreements with Dubai or approve fifth freedom rights or beyond.

Think about the other airlines that offer the same quality of service offering a more convenient route? There are not that many choices with one connection. Other airlines may require two connections or more and with international flights, clearing customs, etc in every country that can add 3-4 hours per connection time. That amounts to way time total enroute than emirates one stop going the long way around the globe. I still want to know how you think you know so much about Emirates' model and how full there 380's are or are you just speculating based on your minds one sided thought process? Not a bad thing, most people think that way, just curious.

 

[typhoonpilot]

People from China will never fly the wrong way back to Dubai then travel to the US. I don't dispute the numbers of people but these 2 billion people will never be able to fly and fill 120 A-380s. The entire North Anerican market constitutes 50% of all Air traffic. The location of Dubai does not fit for air traffic to/from the N. American markets and most European markets. Take a look at Dubai on the map and then think about East coast traffic to Europe or west coast traffic to Asia. Dubai doesn't fit this and 50% of all air traffic is N. American air travelers. I don't think most N. American countries will sign open sky agreements with Dubai or approve fifth freedom rights or beyond.

The market for the A380s has always been a little bit suspect. That said, Emirates is filling them up on many routes. As long as oil stays at reasonable price levels you will see the most profit ever reported by an airline for one year made by Emirates this year. It will likely be in excess of $2 Billion. They don't need any money from outside sources ( such as the government ) to continue their business plan. It's a stand alone business.

Draw a 10 hour flying radius around Dubai. There are close to 4 Billion people in that radius. It compromises all of Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Indian Sub-Continent. The North American market is not for traffic to and from Europe, it's for traffic to and from the Middle East and parts of Asia ( primarily the Indian Sub-Continent ). There are also new traffic corridors in the world that North American airlines will never be able to tap into. Those are ones from Asia to Africa and Asia to Europe. Notice that Dubai sits right in the middle of both market pairs.

The old axioms are being withered away. Things like 50% of all world air travel is in the USA east of the Mississippi. That's crap from 30 years ago. It's not true today. The new axiom is 50% of all CRJs and ERJs worldwide are flying in the USA pissing off all the air travelers.

That all said, Emirates is not the be all, end all career destination just because they are profitable and have a lot of big airplanes. The company operates very efficient and cost conscious across all departments. The pilots work very hard compared to many other pilots worldwide. Expect a minimum of 800-900 hours of flying per year and additional non-paid duties to eat up your days off. Lifestyle has gone downhill rapidly over the last year and half. The quick upgrades of the past will be hard to replicate for people joining today. But, yeah you would have a shot at the big shiny A380 for sure.



Typhoonpilot

 

[CX880]

How many pilots are there per A380 at EK?

 

[Bjammin]

The market for the A380s has always been a little bit suspect. That said, Emirates is filling them up on many routes. As long as oil stays at reasonable price levels you will see the most profit ever reported by an airline for one year made by Emirates this year. It will likely be in excess of $2 Billion. They don't need any money from outside sources ( such as the government ) to continue their business plan. It's a stand alone business.

Draw a 10 hour flying radius around Dubai. There are close to 4 Billion people in that radius. It compromises all of Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Indian Sub-Continent. The North American market is not for traffic to and from Europe, it's for traffic to and from the Middle East and parts of Asia ( primarily the Indian Sub-Continent ). There are also new traffic corridors in the world that North American airlines will never be able to tap into. Those are ones from Asia to Africa and Asia to Europe. Notice that Dubai sits right in the middle of both market pairs.

The old axioms are being withered away. Things like 50% of all world air travel is in the USA east of the Mississippi. That's crap from 30 years ago. It's not true today. The new axiom is 50% of all CRJs and ERJs worldwide are flying in the USA pissing off all the air travelers.

That all said, Emirates is not the be all, end all career destination just because they are profitable and have a lot of big airplanes. The company operates very efficient and cost conscious across all departments. The pilots work very hard compared to many other pilots worldwide. Expect a minimum of 800-900 hours of flying per year and additional non-paid duties to eat up your days off. Lifestyle has gone downhill rapidly over the last year and half. The quick upgrades of the past will be hard to replicate for people joining today. But, yeah you would have a shot at the big shiny A380 for sure.



Typhoonpilot

Great post!!

The arrogance and American cetric attitudes of some N. American pilots is crazy. I fly full 777-300ER's from Hong Kong to Taiwan, Manila, and Japan all the time with high yeilds that don't have one American on them. There is a HUGE market of flyers out there in growing economies that many US carriers will never be able to tap into.

 

[Cpt. Underpants]

I'm no expert on this, but Canadas' denial of unfettered access to Canadian cities by EK is a blow to their N American plans. The Canadian government justifies the denial on the grounds that the Emirate is not a destination but a transit point, and EK and others are simply flooding the market with cheap seats, intending to put AC and others out of business.

Although AC is one of my least favourite carriers, Harper (Canadian Prime Minister) has a point.

When the playing field is level (human rights, salaries, fuel and insurance costs), let the games begin.

FWIW, the Emirate has responded but terminating the lease the Canadian Armed Forces (yes, there is one) has on a base in the UAE, giving them 30 days to vacate. So much for fair play. Right.

 

[johnsonrod]

I'm no expert on this, but Canadas' denial of unfettered access to Canadian cities by EK is a blow to their N American plans. The Canadian government justifies the denial on the grounds that the Emirate is not a destination but a transit point, and EK and others are simply flooding the market with cheap seats, intending to put AC and others out of business.

Although AC is one of my least favourite carriers, Harper (Canadian Prime Minister) has a point.

When the playing field is level (human rights, salaries, fuel and insurance costs), let the games begin.

FWIW, the Emirate has responded but terminating the lease the Canadian Armed Forces (yes, there is one) has on a base in the UAE, giving them 30 days to vacate. So much for fair play. Right.

We all understand the capacity dump argument. Why not allow a 1-2 daily 777s vs. one A380 three days a week? But Air Canada also can't compete with EK's service standards. So, Canadian citizens will have to suffer with higher airfares and crappier service when they want to get to the Middle East. Gee, sounds quite protectionist to me.

Fortunately AF, BA and LH also serve Canada (I think AF now operates an A380 to Montreal daily from CDG - what's up with that???? Can't people also transit through CDG on their way to Pakistan and India?) so Canadians aren't completely held hostage by AC and its comparative crap service.

 

[Cpt. Underpants]

AF, BA and LH also serve Canada

True - but LHR, LGW, CDG & FRA all destinations in themselves, not transit stops - the essence of the argument in the AC/EK dispute.

Couldn't agree more.

I'll reiterate - I'm no fan of AC, but I do believe in fair play.

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

Great post!!

The arrogance and American cetric attitudes of some N. American pilots is crazy. I fly full 777-300ER's from Hong Kong to Taiwan, Manila, and Japan all the time with high yeilds that don't have one American on them. There is a HUGE market of flyers out there in growing economies that many US carriers will never be able to tap into.

I never disputed Cathay Pacific's ability to fill 777s in Asia. What I am disputing is how Emirates will fill 120 A-380s from Dubai. This ain't rocket science its just the facts. The N. American market still constitutes 50% of all air traffic and Dubai can't tap into that market very effectively. I'm not flying currently in N. America, I am an ExPat so I have been around the block a few times mister arrogant. I think Emirates has a great market and can fill a niche in certain markets but time will tell whether 120 A-380s can be filled. My bet in a big NOOOOOOO!

 

[johnsonrod]

True - but LHR, LGW, CDG & FRA all destinations in themselves, not transit stops - the essence of the argument in the AC/EK dispute.

Couldn't agree more.

I'll reiterate - I'm no fan of AC, but I do believe in fair play.

Good point, but I'd argue that Dubai, with its Palm Islands, huge malls, indoor ski slopes and the world's tallest building, would also be considered a destination by many people - like London, Paris and Frankfurt. In fact, I'd rather visit Dubai than Frankfurt (except during the hot summer). So, it's all semantics (word play) and it doesn't hide the fact that the Canadians can't compete with EK's product (especially the luxurious A380) and high service standard. The Canadian hosers just can't admit it.

IMO, the Canadian military base should be tossed out of the UAE - it's called reciprocity. You should expect a response to these constraints. It's time to to liberalize trade and actually help Canadian citizens get where they want to go worldwide instead of restricting that ability. The US would allow A380s to US airports if EK were interested in more flights beyond JFK - they probably wouldn't restrict access like Canada. Air Canada should compete for business (both through better service and lower fares) vs. runaway and hide behind gov't restrictions. US airlines are competing internationally with EK through their alliances and high service standards - why can't Air Canada?

 

[Cpt. Underpants]

Palm Islands, huge malls, indoor ski slopes and the world's tallest building

Mall of the Americas - in 110 degree heat? Why ski indoors (I've been there, by the way. It's a bunny slope at best) when the best skiing is in Aspen, Telluride or Whistler? Buildings, schmuildings. Seen one, seen 'em all.

What EK want is a 300% + increase in seats (for starters) and THEN multiple daily services to YVR, YYC, YEG, YWG (WTF!) YYZ, YHZ and YUL. Get the F out.

Not proven, but ICAO is pretty sure EK pays a lot less than most for fuel, landing fees, overflight, navigation and finance - it's the new OPEC.

Emirates has been pushing for up to 50 new takeoff and landing slots over the long term, but Air Canada and Transport Canada oppose the distribution of so many new flights, saying there have to be “reciprocal” benefits, and not the one-sided advantages for the UAE.

Air Canada argues that Emirates doesn’t really want to fly customers between Canada and Dubai, but instead sees the foreign carrier as aggressively seeking to skim off lucrative international traffic via the UAE.

Hoser? I haven't sucked gas out of a tank in at least a month!