Emirates aims for 120 A380s... See Reuters Article

[Wesb737fo]

I know the world is getting smaller and that it doesn't revolve around the U.S., but man, I tell you, the more I watch the world about it makes me realize that the founding fathers were on to something when they framed the constitution. It's not perfect here, especially as an airline pilot ( considering the last decade) but there is nothing like the Good Ole USA. I passed up an opportunity to interview at EK because my family and I made a decision to stay here. I have no beef with anyone who left the US or anywhere else to go work there ( best of luck to all). I'm sure that down the road our politicians will have to make compromises concerning open skies and allow foreign carriers to bring more seats into N America. I hope it's fair but Im a skeptic. So for now I'll just peddle my little 737 around the country for three or four days then go home and enjoy my time off. God bless and Happy New Year

 

[BornAgainPagan]

The only thing the middle east is good for is to take a dump in.

You go ahead and think that the next time you refuel your gas guzzler.

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

http://atwonline.com/international-...athaus-says-rise-gulf-carriers-threatens-glob

It seems things are heating up and getting more interesting as the ME carriers try and expand so quickly at an unprecedented expansion rate into existing markets.

By Perry Flint | January 24, 2011


Emirates Airline, Qatar Airways and Etihad represent a new kind of competitive threat that is incompatible with the existing world aviation order and that probably needs to be dealt with through ICAO, Assn. of European Airlines Secretary General Ulrich Schulte-Strathaus said last week in Washington.Schulte-Strathaus told the International Aviation Club that the trio of Persian Gulf-based carriers "are owned by their respective governments and operated as an instrument of national strategy—if 'national' is the right word within this regional rivalry—and they are integrated vertically across commerce, tourism and foreign policy." For their state owners, Schulte-Strathaus said, "The airlines are just a part—a tool—of this vertically integrated economic chain," and they are "being driven by a policy which is not compatible with that of the US and Europe, or I suspect, Australia, China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Korea and so on."

He stated that the three "have more widebody seats on order than the entire US industry has in its current fleet … 425 brand new long-haul aircraft in the next five years." And they will fly "everywhere," he said, before asking: "Does it make sense for airlines and travelers worldwide if three carriers—two of which have never made a profit—collectively commit $100 billion to transforming the aviation map of the world?"

After stating that limiting market access is the wrong approach, he proposed that ICAO could become a WTO of the air, negotiating "a mechanism to deal with capacity dumping in the field of aviation." Schulte-Strathaus acknowledged "it has been quite a while since anyone in the airline industry mentioned capacity dumping as an issue ... But, the specter of an airline as part of a government vertically integrated design operating to all corners of the world forces us to reconsider the issue."

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Most Americans would definitely benefit from some time abroad.

People from China will never fly the wrong way back to Dubai then travel to the US. I don't dispute the numbers of people but these 2 billion people will never be able to fly and fill 120 A-380s. The entire North Anerican market constitutes 50% of all Air traffic.

Let's say the above is true (I have NO idea!). If it's true, it's true TODAY.

EK does NOT have 90 A-380s TODAY.

China is growing so fast, that the vast majority of Americans cannot comprehend the amount of growth at all. Soon, in 10? years or so, India will be LARGER than China! Their growth is unbelievable, and will only grow faster.

EK will have MILLIONS of new customers soon, compliments of China/India.

FlyDubai is used to feed traffic to EK. They are NOT competitors!!!

Is Dubai a great city? No. But, relatively speaking, it is a very nice one. There are LOTS of Europeans who go to DXB on holiday!

cliff
KGRB

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

Hi!
EK will have MILLIONS of new customers soon, compliments of China/India.

FlyDubai is used to feed traffic to EK. They are NOT competitors!!!

cliff
KGRB

So China and India now are going to allow unprecedented dumping of seats in their respective countries? I think the Chinese carriers can compete head on with Emirates but unsure of India. China will not roll over easy on this one and right now ticket prices are $ cheap from China to the US/Canada so no need to back track to Dubai if you are traveling from China to N. America.
Fly Dubai is currently not a direct competitor with Emirates but take a look at the short-medium route structure of Emirates and it is over 50% of their traffic. The 737 NG can fly a full load of passengers for 5+ hours and the 737NG-700ER goes 7+ hours. Continental flies them from the East coast to Europe. A full thread was devoted to this topic on another aviation forum and clearly within 5 years Fly Dubai will be a HUGE competitor of Emirates. Arguably the 737 NG is one of the most efficient aircraft, Southwest demonstrates this very clearly,

 

[typhoonpilot]

So China and India now are going to allow unprecedented dumping of seats in their respective countries? I think the Chinese carriers can compete head on with Emirates but unsure of India. China will not roll over easy on this one and right now ticket prices are $ cheap from China to the US/Canada so no need to back track to Dubai if you are traveling from China to N. America.
Fly Dubai is currently not a direct competitor with Emirates but take a look at the short-medium route structure of Emirates and it is over 50% of their traffic. The 737 NG can fly a full load of passengers for 5+ hours and the 737NG-700ER goes 7+ hours. Continental flies them from the East coast to Europe. A full thread was devoted to this topic on another aviation forum and clearly within 5 years Fly Dubai will be a HUGE competitor of Emirates. Arguably the 737 NG is one of the most efficient aircraft, Southwest demonstrates this very clearly,

In regards to China to North America, I would agree, that is not a market for Emirates. However: China to Africa; China to Europe; India to Europe; India to North America; China to Middle East; India to Middle East; Europe to Asia; Europe to Oz; Africa to Oz; Africa to Europe and vice versa are all EK markets. The catchement area for Emirates based on an 8 hour circle of Dubai is roughly 4 billion people.

Sorry, but you pretty much do not have a clue what you are talking about regards FlyDubai. FlyDubai is designed to operate to cities that are smaller markets that Emirates does not serve. True, in the beginning, they started operating to some of the similar destinations. The reason for that is that the route rights to India that they first envisioned operating to were withheld so the aircraft had to be put somewhere fast. The easy answer was to put them where they could get operating authority quickly. If you notice the last half a dozen new destinations they are all to smaller airports within 4 hours of Dubai not served by Emirates.

FlyDubai has just scratched the surface on the small airports within 4 to 5 hours of Dubai that have potential for earning money. There are at least another 30 viable destinations. Some of that traffic will be connecting traffic for Emirates, very little of it will take traffic away from Emirates.



Typhoonpilot

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

Sorry, but you pretty much do not have a clue what you are talking about regards FlyDubai.
Typhoonpilot[/QUOTE]

The future will tell, but these countries which Fly Dubai is now serving are definitely in Emirates home turf. The efficiency of the 737 NG will also be a prime factor. As to the other many markets like Europe, China and N. America I also see stiff protectionism as the 120 A-380s are placed into service making it ever more difficult for Emirates to find viable markets.

Jordan
Turkmenistan
Egypt
Bahrain
Azerbaijan
Lebanon
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Syria
Bangladesh
Djibouti
Qatar
United Arab Emirates
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Afghanistan
Nepal
Pakistan
Sudan
Kuwait
India
Oman
Sudan
Russia
Iraq
Armenia

 

[typhoonpilot]

Abha ( non-EK )
Aleppo ( non-EK )
Alexandria ( non-EK )
Amman
Ashgabat ( non-EK )
Assiut ( non-EK )
Bahrain
Baku ( non-EK )
Beirut
Colombo
Damascus
Djibouti ( non-EK )
Doha
Erbil (non-EK )
Istanbul
Kabul ( non-EK )
Karachi
Kathmandu ( non-EK )
Khartoum
Kuwait
Latakia ( non-EK )
Lucknow ( non-EK )
Luxor ( non-EK )
Muscat
Samara ( non-EK )
Sulaimaniyah ( non-EK )
Yekaterinburg ( non-EK )
Yerevan ( non-EK )


28 destinations with 17 of them not served by EK. Again, the reason for the EK destinations was they had to put airplanes where they could when the route rights to Chandigargh, Pune, Goa, Amritsar, and a few other Indian destinations could not be obtained. That plus some of those destinations do support off peak flights served by smaller aircraft.

In regards to A380s. The traffic volume is increasing at many airports that are slot constrained. That will be the norm over the next decade plus. The airspace and airport parking constraints in those markets will dictate larger aircraft.


Typhoonpilot

 

[fareview]

Wyoming.

One can tell that you have no knowledge of Dubai Inc to make such statements concerning the two airlines owned by the same man. In any case TP is correct and you are wrong

They are not competitors, FD is there to feed the two motherships...EK & Dubai. There are many markets that cannot justify a full service wideboby but are profitable with single class 737's - hence the reason Dubai Inc started the airline.

Most of the leadership team came from EK. In fact all EK cadets will be going to FD for two years of experience before transitioning to EK (not yet announced - you heard it here first) and hardly the stuff of competitors.

Every time another city is linked to Dubai via EK/FD - it enhances the hub/city. As it stands there are (according to a snr mgr I spoke to) 50 cities alone that EK could fly to that will make money if they had the planes &/or the rights, countless more with FD.

Dubai's vision is to be THE crossroads of the world where the increasing critical mass of the hub relegates the old world hubs to the background.

It is widely acknowledged by objective industry experts that the geographics alone make this a compelling case. The challenge is not aircraft - they are coming. It is landing rights. To underscore the point above - this is the reason the legacy alliances are fighting EK tooth and nail - they realise the threat to their model is huge.

Just think of the city pairs that have relegated Europe to the background when looking at Asia/Africa & the Americas. The world population will grow to 9.5bn by 2030. 50% of this growth will take place in emerging market urban areas.

Thats what EK/FD are after...together.

fv

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

Wyoming.

One can tell that you have no knowledge of Dubai Inc to make such statements concerning the two airlines owned by the same man. In any case TP is correct and you are wrong

It is widely acknowledged by objective industry experts that the geographics alone make this a compelling case. The challenge is not aircraft - they are coming. It is landing rights. To underscore the point above - this is the reason the legacy alliances are fighting EK tooth and nail - they realise the threat to their model is huge.

fv

As I stated earlier, time will tell but already you and TP admit almost half of the cities are in DIRECT competition with Emirates and using a LCC pricing scheme. If both carriers serve the same market the LCC is normally the one utilized when purchasing a ticket, especially when the average person in many of those markets makes less than $500 per month. The other cities may not be in DIRECT competition but might be indirectly siphoning off Emirates ticket sales. If 1/3 of all Emirates traffic is in the subcontinent and Fly Dubai has big plans to grow and develop the Indian market then that will also bring about more competition with the two carriers. Another key point is how many passengers are taking a 3 hour bus or train ride to save some money and fly on Fly Dubai from a regional city Fly Dubai serves rather than proceed to a large market where Emirates operates? An analogy would be many people from North Texas drive 3 hours to Oklahoma City to save a bunch of money as the competition is much greater there vs. Dallas. Both carriers might be under the same ownership but the owners care about the bottom line of each company individually. Frank Lorenzo was the CEO of both Eastern and Continental and he always showed a profit at Continental vs. normally lost money at Eastern which was much less efficient. Owners care about each company making money and the management at Fly Dubai will fight vigorously and tooth and nail to make a profit even at Emirates expense. The LCC model may be the more effective marketing strategy in the markets where Fly Dubai is currently active or within 5 hours flight time of Dubai. I'm not the expert but I can see how you and TP as insiders might be overlooking what is happening or could happen in the near future as Fly Dubai grows and expands. An entire thread was devoted to the competition on another aviation forum over a year ago between Fly Dubai and Emirates. Now I hear there is talk of Etihad opening up a LCC model even saturating the market in Dubai ever more. Will Qatar be the next to start a LCC model? The point is Dubai might try and become a superpower center for worldwide air travel but the majority of the countries involved will protect their own national interests and internal carriers' business interests. The population of Dubai and Qatar is small and cannot support the 425 widebody aircraft both have on order or the 120 A-380s Emirates has on order. Europe, N. America and China will use protectionism to stop the dumping of seats in their markets. Africa may not for the time being but many Indian carriers will lobby and also fight to stop foreign competition at such an unprecedented rate. This may well be a (MOAB), Mother of all battles type scenario in the making but with the worldwide politics and economic policies at stake I see protectionism being a HUGE player.