Dust off the Chrystal Balls...

[1-tacan-rule]

Okay, I know that no one knows the future for sure. But with the thousands of years of industry experience on this board I was curious what the masses thought.

In order, which company has the best chances of surviving the next 10, 15 years;

FDX
UPS
SWA
jBlue
Airtran
AmWest

Not asking who is going under...just who has the best chance of being around.

A lot of us are looking for jobs in this industry...alot of you have them. Many of us have seen what many of you have gone through and would love to hedge bets to avoid those rollercoaster rides.

Thanks!!!!!

 

[Captain Overs]

Did you just happen to list them in the order of likely sucess?

 

[General Lee]

In my Crystal ball, I see SONG taking over like the BORG. Everyone will want to fly a green and white 757 with better IFE than Jetblue!


As far as the rest goes, I have no idea. Fuel prices will play a big part in who will stay or go, and the cargo carriers don't seem to have a large problem with that. With what USAir has had to go through, maybe a lot of airlines will stick around. How many times did everyone think USAir would be gone "tomorrow.....?" They aren't gone yet......


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[T-Gates]

In my Crystal ball, I see SONG taking over like the BORG.

Welcome aboard SONG, you have been assymilated.....

 

[XRMEFLYER]

AirTran is looking pretty strong with the lowest non fuel CASM in the business and consistent above average numbers in all four DOT categories.

 

[8vATE]

In my Crystal ball, I see SONG taking over like the BORG. Everyone will want to fly a green and white 757 with better IFE than Jetblue!

Bye Bye--General Lee

You just can't keep from sticking it to your competition, huh?
Yes .... we are to blame for all YOUR problems.....


I'll sit in a NEW A320 with oversized overhead bins... with FOUR flight attendants for 156 passengers.... with 36... yes ... 36 channels of DIRECTV ... 2 Fox pay per view channels and 100 channels of XM radio before I go ride in an old 757 with galley carts blocking the aisles all the time and an interior that looks like a color freakshow...and esp. ego driven blowhard DELTA PROFESSIONALS up front....

 

[General Lee]

You just can't keep from sticking it to your competition, huh?
Yes .... we are to blame for all YOUR problems.....


I'll sit in a NEW A320 with oversized overhead bins... with FOUR flight attendants for 156 passengers.... with 36... yes ... 36 channels of DIRECTV ... 2 Fox pay per view channels and 100 channels of XM radio before I go ride in an old 757 with galley carts blocking the aisles all the time and an interior that looks like a color freakshow...and esp. ego driven blowhard DELTA PROFESSIONALS up front....

Hey, dude, chill out. I was joking here. Doesn't it seem like it? Think about it, why would I include that? That was a fun jab at you guys. You really need to take some Ex-Lax. Seriously, you have some major grudge against us----not me. I have not said anything bad about the Jetblue pilot group---never. I have good "debates" with Diezel 8, Jetblue320, and a host of others. We like to "rib" each other. You need to relax chief and clean out your colon----go to a spa.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[1-tacan-rule]

Lists...lists...I don't see lists...

Please

 

[Eagleflip]

You need to relax chief and clean out your colon----go to a spa.

LOL...Gee General...I didn't know you cared about my colon's health!

Maybe I'll just keep working on those salads!

 

[ThisistheDream]

With all the new LLC competition I think most are airlines are walking on thin ice of being succesful long term. If that virgin USA ever becomes, that will be another blow to lowering fares to make competition for success and making money for all the other airlines that harder. In 5 years when JetGreen, TranAir, West American start flying as the new premier LCC like jetblue and Airtran of today, they will have the cheapest labor around allowing the cheapest fares then putting a hurt on the Legacy jet blue Airtran etc. Things will be interesting. When a new LCC air frieght opeartor starts flying or when cabotage becomes a reality then the fedex, ups, DHL will be looking for help. DAL new turnaround plan should be take every seat out of every plane and over night become 100% air cargo company called DELTA DASH andfollow the likes of FEDEX UPS. They will have a brand new cargo facility available to them in CVG soon when DHL leaves!

 

[Falconjet]

1TR: Here's a list for you:

Nearly sure things:

FedEx
UPS
SWA

Maybe:

AirTran


Possibly:

jetBlue

Potentially:

AmWest

Now I will put away my crystal ball. Don't shoot the messenger, its just a personal opinion, based on personal things. Please don't anybody from any of the carriers in the list take offense, I don't have anything against any of them.

FJ

 

[capt. megadeth]

I wouldn't call any airline a "nearly sure thing"

I put them all in the "time will tell" category

 

[Big Beer Belly]

I wouldn't call any airline a "nearly sure thing"

I put them all in the "time will tell" category

You could put EVERY corporation in the world in the "time will tell" category ... way to go out on a limb.

Here's a few hints about one of those above companies;

World's largest transportation company
been in business since 1907
moves 6% of the U.S. GDP daily
360,000 employees
approaching $40 billion in total revenue annually
posts a $3.5 billion annual profit
delivers to more than 200 countries and territories
Fortune ranks it as America's third most financially sound corporation


<sound of Jeopardy jingle in the background>

 

[Vince Neil]

<sound of Jeopardy jingle in the background>[/QUOTE]

I'll take The Rapist for $600, Alex.

Suck it Trebek!

 

[Falconjet]

I'll take "what is UPS" for a bizillion dollars Alex.

 

[Falconjet]

Capt Megadeath: Don't blame me, I'm just letting my buddy know what my crystal ball said to me.

FJ

 

[capt. megadeth]

Well, my crystal ball is saying the same thing to me........I just hope they call me for an interview sometime before mandatory retirement age.

 

[islandhopper]

Well here goes nothing... I heard a theory that makes perfect sense. But first you need to remember a little history from your Airline Industry college courses. Since the 50's every decade has had a cyclical rhythm of growth and decline. The first half of every decade is always a crisis of one sort or another, furloughs, bankruptcies, all kinds of problems, while the second half of every decade has out-grown the down turns by leaps and bounds.

I heard an interesting theory that involves writing an algorhythm computer program to plot out the airline industry up & down cycles. The good news is, according to the program, we will begin a period of constant growth in mid 2006. This period of growth will out do any previous expansion that airlines have ever experienced. It will be a serious boom market by the end of the decade, around 2009.

The bad news is, the downturn will be the most pronounced ever. The same airlines that are teetering on the brink today will probably make it this time around, but those that have not learned from their mistakes will take the brunt of the next downturn. The algorhythm plots out each up and downturn being more pronounced than the previous decade. My prediction is not many airlines will survive past 2015. At least not in their present form.

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

Star Trek Transporters....

...the US government just spent some money on researching the feasabilty of transporters.

Once they come up with that, we are all out on the street. they will even transport the empty hulls to the desert....or is it dessert.

It's almost midnight, time to eat!

 

[singlespeed]

Santa will be here.

 

[smellthejeta]

Fed Ex vs UPS

Why do you guys always rank FedEx above UPS? When it comes to job *preferences*, I could see a rational argument, but when it comes to the financial stability of the corporation, why are you guys always ranking UPS at the bottom? Big brown isn't exactly a struggling company.

With regards to pax carriers, it's a little premature to claim that WN is invincible... All airlines have increasing costs as they mature, and when WN stops growing, it is inevitable that their costs will catch up with them, putting them in a vulnerable position.

 

[1-tacan-rule]

What was I thinking....

Thanks a bunch FJ for being the only one who answered the question.

Lists, lists....I want lists.....

 

[Captain Overs]

I think something to keep in mind is that there will be growth. The problem is what type of growth? Mainline or Express type? If the past 10 years in any indication we will have jobs but at Mesa rates.

 

[psysicx]

Does anybody know who made more Fedex or UPS.And at the major levels I think Cal and Nwa are doing the best.

 

[HowlinMadMurdoc]

Does anybody know who made more Fedex or UPS.And at the major levels I think Cal and Nwa are doing the best.

Visit www.sec.gov and read the financials there.

 

[xrayojilp]

UPS (They are the strongest)
FedEX (Not going anywhere)

The only thing these guys have to worry about are pay cuts and efforts by management to break up unions or outsource flying.

Southwest (Even if they do start losing money I hear they own their own planes, they can flip those bad chickens and stay in business forever) I figure they are as secure as the cargo folks.

Airtran and Jetblue - It depends on management and the economy and oil prices. Is it good if oil comes down and now legacies can use their size to start price wars and lose money on routes just to hurt their competition? Have they learned that ignoring LCC's is a bad decision and will they use their size to advantage when things get better? Will these guys get bought out? With pilots being tacked on to the bottom of someone elses list? If oil prices get higher how will they take advantage of a UAL or USair going out?

America West - Seem to be losing money like every other legacy. Just not as bad as USair or UAL. Will they merge with another carrier? I think probably. But what happens when a company losing money merges with another company that is just hanging on, or losing money also? (Applies to pretty much everyone except Southwest). What if they merge with Continental or Alaska or Whoever. Do two sick puppies make a healthy dog?