Discussion with the V.P @ Skywest. ASA lookout

[JumpersAway]

The picture isn't painted and hanging on the wall for SkyWest either. They haven't hit the hard spot yet- United is so slow to react to change they haven't adjusted anything yet. As for SkyWest moving over to handle all the DAL ops- that still dumps guys out on the street with SkyWest. There are simply too many pilots and too little DAL flying. Frankly, I'd expect to see SkyWest buy their way into flying for AA, Continental, or maybe even USAirways- they're the only regional that really has the cash to do this. I fully expect SkyWest to cut the throat of another regional carrier or two, but I don't think ASA will be one of the victims.

EnuffAlready- your hysteria is going to cause what you fear most. If you truly believe what you preach- what aren't you trying to bail out or move on? Sure, it's a tough market, but stuff's out there....... A slowdown is absolutely rediculous and ill founded...The bottom line is we've not been hurt that badly, and management could play very dirty if they wished too. I hate to point it out, but just about every regional out there is in worse shape than we are in. Look at the furloughs at Air Whisky, Mesaba, Mesa, Express Jet, and Comair, just to name a few. ASA is merely locking down the hatches to weather the storm as well......

Bottom line is that no one knows anything right now. No one knows when this will end, no one knows when it will get better, no one knows the amount of flying that lays ahead, and no one knows who will be around in the next two years. C'mon guys- don't preach doom and gloom about a shut down or slow down when we are in the clear need to produce our "Finest Hour". I don't understand why so many of you here are bleek and down trodden anyway- jeez, I'm one of the downgrades and even I'm not that dark minded, so why are you?

 

[USCtrojan]

The picture isn't painted and hanging on the wall for SkyWest either. They haven't hit the hard spot yet- United is so slow to react to change they haven't adjusted anything yet. As for SkyWest moving over to handle all the DAL ops- that still dumps guys out on the street with SkyWest. There are simply too many pilots and too little DAL flying. Frankly, I'd expect to see SkyWest buy their way into flying for AA, Continental, or maybe even USAirways- they're the only regional that really has the cash to do this. I fully expect SkyWest to cut the throat of another regional carrier or two, but I don't think ASA will be one of the victims.

EnuffAlready- your hysteria is going to cause what you fear most. If you truly believe what you preach- what aren't you trying to bail out or move on? Sure, it's a tough market, but stuff's out there....... A slowdown is absolutely rediculous and ill founded...The bottom line is we've not been hurt that badly, and management could play very dirty if they wished too. I hate to point it out, but just about every regional out there is in worse shape than we are in. Look at the furloughs at Air Whisky, Mesaba, Mesa, Express Jet, and Comair, just to name a few. ASA is merely locking down the hatches to weather the storm as well......

Bottom line is that no one knows anything right now. No one knows when this will end, no one knows when it will get better, no one knows the amount of flying that lays ahead, and no one knows who will be around in the next two years. C'mon guys- don't preach doom and gloom about a shut down or slow down when we are in the clear need to produce our "Finest Hour". I don't understand why so many of you here are bleek and down trodden anyway- jeez, I'm one of the downgrades and even I'm not that dark minded, so why are you?

Great post Jumpers. Well said, and I wish some of the doom and gloomers would practice what they preach and quit. Put your money where your mouth is!


Trojan

 

[trip]

You guys are reading to much into this flying move, Skywest is only 5th under the DCI umbrella with about 450 departures still behind EV, Pen, XJ, and OH. EV is 1st at over 850 daily departures twice the size of OO in number of departures. OO has only 13 CR7's and 21 900's on the DCI side. This puts things in better perspective as far as pullbacks.

 

[Speedtape]

IF UNITED FAILS>>>>>>>>>that is the question!

If United fails:
1. Mesa fails.
2. Republic could fail.
3. Any commuter that does business with UAL could fail---except for Skywest

If United fails and most of the associated feeders fail:
1. Mesa will no longer be in existence to feed Delta or USAIR.
2. Republic will be hurt, but it looks like they are attempting to take actions to have some alternate plan.

If United and the United feeders fail--except for Skywest:

1. Delta will need new feed, because Mesa will go away.
2. SKywest will be ready to provide replacement feed.
3. USAir will need immediate feed in Phoenix and where ever else Mesa feeds them.
4. Skywest will be there in a heart beat to replace Mesa.
5. Delta will grow overnight in LAX to replace the vacuum of UAL.
6. Delta will need immediate feed and Skywest can simply change sides of the airport.


If UAL goes out of business, it could be the best thing that ever happened for Skywest and Skywest, Inc. It may be a bump in the road, but it will be better in the long run and they have plenty of cash to make the transition.

For all you ASA "Doom and Gloomers," Skywest, Inc. will not grow Skywest by cannablizing ASA--a money maker! What would that accomplish? My guess is that they are waiting for UAL to die, then Mesa, and to plug into the new world order that will be created. Heck, ASA may even get a few crumbs from the table.

For all you Musers out there: The question to ponder: Are the recent domicile changes any kind of reallignment for the enevitable in the industry and the hypotheticals presented? Should this happen, how would the future crew bases be affected?

Skywest, Inc. will survive a UAL failure--and survive well. They are ready, well financed, and ready to move. I am quite sure the plan is in place.

 

[rf285]

Good analysis Speedtape, with one problem, you are up against the DAL 70-76 seat scope clause cap at 255 airframes. So unless they use a bunch of fifties, no dice.

 

[Nevets]

don't like anything about alpa

i know its in the contract. thats why i said it silly. ain't it great? alpa finally does something right and it could lead to us finally getting ride of that bunch of extortionists

If its great, and ALPA negotiated for it, and you agree that was right to do that, then you are contradicting yourself when you say you dont like anything about ALPA. Can you give me your top three specific reasons for not like ALPA? And can you give me two other things you think ALPA has done right?

 

[Tarzan]

Nevets,
I can name plenty of things ALPA has done including their lobby on better and safer rules for aviation. I believe in this climate today with things being as fluid as they even in good times, ALPA can not and shown they have no desire to bend to the pressure of the market. That to me is how it has become broken. ALPA IS NOT A UNION! It is a loose association and should conduct itself as such instead of how it does today.

It can be fixed and I'd like to run for office, but I'd tarred, feathered and run out on a rusty rail. There are simply too many militant guys that will take the majority down that road because they don't want to get tossed into the RJDC pot. Because everyone knows, if you don't agree with ALPA, well you must be a RJDC guy.

 

[Nevets]

Nevets,
I believe in this climate today with things being as fluid as they even in good times, ALPA can not and shown they have no desire to bend to the pressure of the market. That to me is how it has become broken. ALPA IS NOT A UNION! It is a loose association and should conduct itself as such instead of how it does today.

What exactly do you mean by "no desire to bend to the pressure of the market" and "ALPA IS NOT A UNION! It is a loose association?"

 

[Plainsman]

Kinda like AOPA!

 

[Erlanger]

Let me tell you a story about unions and hookers.

A dedicated union worker was attending a convention in Las Vegas and decided to check out the local brothels. When he got to the first one, he asked the Madam, "Is this a union house?" "No," she replied, "I'm sorry it isn't." "Well, if I pay you $100, what cut do the girls get?" "The house gets $80 and the girls get $20," she answered.

Offended at such unfair dealings, the union man stomped off down the street in search of a more equitable, hopefully unionized shop. His search continued until finally he reached a brothel where the Madam responded, "Why yes sir, this is a union house. "We observe all union rules." The man asked, "And if I pay you $100, what cut do the girls get?" "The girls get $80 and the house gets $20." "That's more like it!" the union man said.

He handed the Madam $100, looked around the room, and pointed to a stunningly attractive green-eyed blonde . "I'd like her," he said. "I'm sure you would, sir,' said the Madam. Then she gestured to a 92-year old woman in the corner, "but Ethel here has 67 years seniority and according to union rules, she's next."