Delta Stock

[airgator]

I'm considering buying a couple thousand shares of DAL at about 1.15. The gamble is I'm banking on them not filing Ch. 11. The way I'm looking at it, if I buy $5000 worth, worst case scenario I end up eating it. If they don't file Ch. 11 however, there's some serious money to be made. It could be 5-6 bucks 2 yrs from now. Any thoughts or am I an idiot?

 

[JPB]

Paradox!!
Plenty of thoughts but no thoughts

 

[bafanguy]

It could be 5-6 bucks 2 yrs from now. Any thoughts or am I an idiot?

No, Sir, you are not an idiot. You are what is called a gambler. Gamblers are prepared to lose it all...and laugh about it.

Dream Date asked me the same thing over breakfast the other morning. I have to admit the temptation was strong...roll the dice...it's the "lose it all and laugh" part I have the problem with.

I'm more of a "lose it all and sink into a deep depression" guy. I wouldn't trust DL management any further than I could kick the whole freakin' lot of 'em. In fact, I'd poke 'em with sharp sticks and dance in their blood if I thought I could get away with it.

Your mileage may vary.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I'm considering buying a couple thousand shares of DAL at about 1.15. The gamble is I'm banking on them not filing Ch. 11. The way I'm looking at it, if I buy $5000 worth, worst case scenario I end up eating it. If they don't file Ch. 11 however, there's some serious money to be made. It could be 5-6 bucks 2 yrs from now. Any thoughts or am I an idiot?

No not an idiot. But possibly late. We should have been buying after the hurricane when gas was selling for $5/gallon in Atlanta. I was hoping for a pop considerably higher than 1.15 by now.

Bottom fishing is hard to do and you need to take advantage of some short term market fear, IMHO.

Right now I'm more interested in Airtran, JetBlue and SWA stock. Not buying though.

 

[lowecur]

Any thoughts or am I an idiot?

This is not a smart move. DL needs so much plastic surgery that you'd recognize Michael Jackson's nose if it fell on the sidewalk before you'd recognize DL in 3 years.

If you want to gamble, put your money on NWAC. I don't give them more than a 25/75 chance of staying out of 11, but I give DAL no chance.

 

[Gulfstream 200]

plain and simple --

statiscally wise you are better off putting that 5K on a number at a Vegas table.

there is a reason the stock is a buck..

 

[9rj9]

better bet

buy the call options, you can get the DAL Oct 2.50 calls for .05

 

[viper548]

If they make it past when the new BK laws come into effect then it might be worth considering, until then, as mentioned by someone else, go to vegas and drop it on a number at the roulette table.

 

[General Lee]

plain and simple --

statiscally wise you are better off putting that 5K on a number at a Vegas table.

there is a reason the stock is a buck..

If you would have bought 5000 shares at $1.00, you would have made a 15% profit by now. It may go up a tad bit more before it goes down again. Stocks can be a gamble indeed.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[typhoonpilot]

Buying DAL is a big gamble. The chances that they won't file for Chapter 11 in the next month are slim to none. You are right, you could make money if they don't, but there is a 90% chance you will lose you entire investment. Have you ever heard the terms "expectancy" and "position sizing". If your gamble on DAL stock is part of a long term investment plan where you are only risking 2% of your investment funds ( max ) and where you tried the same strategy many times and had a positive expectancy, it would be a good plan. If $5000 is 25% of your investment portfolio then this would clearly be a bad move. If $5000 is only 2% of your portfolio and you regularly bottom feed with success then this could be a decent play.

If you want to gamble, put your money on NWAC. I don't give them more than a 25/75 chance of staying out of 11,

I just finished shorting NWAC from $4.00 down to $3.40. A nice 15% return in a couple of weeks. It would be a gamble to go long on them now for the same reasons as DAL. Their fundamentals are in the toilet.



Typhoonpilot