Delta Stock

airgator

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I'm considering buying a couple thousand shares of DAL at about 1.15. The gamble is I'm banking on them not filing Ch. 11. The way I'm looking at it, if I buy $5000 worth, worst case scenario I end up eating it. If they don't file Ch. 11 however, there's some serious money to be made. It could be 5-6 bucks 2 yrs from now. Any thoughts or am I an idiot?
 

bafanguy

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airgator said:
It could be 5-6 bucks 2 yrs from now. Any thoughts or am I an idiot?

No, Sir, you are not an idiot. You are what is called a gambler. Gamblers are prepared to lose it all...and laugh about it.

Dream Date asked me the same thing over breakfast the other morning. I have to admit the temptation was strong...roll the dice...it's the "lose it all and laugh" part I have the problem with.

I'm more of a "lose it all and sink into a deep depression" guy. I wouldn't trust DL management any further than I could kick the whole freakin' lot of 'em. In fact, I'd poke 'em with sharp sticks and dance in their blood if I thought I could get away with it.

Your mileage may vary.
 

FlyBoeingJets

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airgator said:
I'm considering buying a couple thousand shares of DAL at about 1.15. The gamble is I'm banking on them not filing Ch. 11. The way I'm looking at it, if I buy $5000 worth, worst case scenario I end up eating it. If they don't file Ch. 11 however, there's some serious money to be made. It could be 5-6 bucks 2 yrs from now. Any thoughts or am I an idiot?

No not an idiot. But possibly late. We should have been buying after the hurricane when gas was selling for $5/gallon in Atlanta. I was hoping for a pop considerably higher than 1.15 by now.

Bottom fishing is hard to do and you need to take advantage of some short term market fear, IMHO.

Right now I'm more interested in Airtran, JetBlue and SWA stock. Not buying though.
 

lowecur

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airgator said:
Any thoughts or am I an idiot?
This is not a smart move. DL needs so much plastic surgery that you'd recognize Michael Jackson's nose if it fell on the sidewalk before you'd recognize DL in 3 years.

If you want to gamble, put your money on NWAC. I don't give them more than a 25/75 chance of staying out of 11, but I give DAL no chance.
 

Gulfstream 200

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plain and simple --

statiscally wise you are better off putting that 5K on a number at a Vegas table.

there is a reason the stock is a buck..
 

9rj9

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better bet

buy the call options, you can get the DAL Oct 2.50 calls for .05
 

viper548

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If they make it past when the new BK laws come into effect then it might be worth considering, until then, as mentioned by someone else, go to vegas and drop it on a number at the roulette table.
 

General Lee

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Gulfstream 200 said:
plain and simple --

statiscally wise you are better off putting that 5K on a number at a Vegas table.

there is a reason the stock is a buck..

If you would have bought 5000 shares at $1.00, you would have made a 15% profit by now. It may go up a tad bit more before it goes down again. Stocks can be a gamble indeed.


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
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typhoonpilot

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Buying DAL is a big gamble. The chances that they won't file for Chapter 11 in the next month are slim to none. You are right, you could make money if they don't, but there is a 90% chance you will lose you entire investment. Have you ever heard the terms "expectancy" and "position sizing". If your gamble on DAL stock is part of a long term investment plan where you are only risking 2% of your investment funds ( max ) and where you tried the same strategy many times and had a positive expectancy, it would be a good plan. If $5000 is 25% of your investment portfolio then this would clearly be a bad move. If $5000 is only 2% of your portfolio and you regularly bottom feed with success then this could be a decent play.

If you want to gamble, put your money on NWAC. I don't give them more than a 25/75 chance of staying out of 11,

I just finished shorting NWAC from $4.00 down to $3.40. A nice 15% return in a couple of weeks. It would be a gamble to go long on them now for the same reasons as DAL. Their fundamentals are in the toilet.



Typhoonpilot
 

radarlove

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Here, I have an idea. Why don't you give me half of you $5,000, keep the other half, I'll kick you in the balls and you'll still be ahead by $2,500.

Here's a quick rule of thumb about the market, if a stock is trading for a buck, that means that the market has decided that bankruptcy is inevitable. It should drop to zero (it will when the stock gets cancelled) but it will keep trading around a buck until the stock is actually cancelled, look at UAL stock.
 

needsumluv

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Don't be an idiot.

The best way to become a millionaire is to start with a billion dollars and invest in the airlines especially DELTA.

Then again they could pull it off. Tough one but it is a dollar for a reason.
 

twobits

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i'm going to laugh when this bankruptcy law everyone talks about goes into effect and delta does not file ch.11. I know you are sure of yourself now, but they are not going to file bkruptcy because of some silly law. It's about solvency and continuing operations while paying their creditors. ch.11 is a pain and very expensive and Delta has more tricks in their back pocket up ahead before ch.11 is a problem.
 

cathaywannabe

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On CNBC last night, Michelle Maynard (sp?) the aviation business reporter for The New York Times said that Delta would most likely go Chapter 11 within three weeks. She also said Northwest is not far behind, although could still maybe avoid a bankruptcy filing. She spoke highly of LUV and JBLU.

Good luck...as Warren Buffet would say avoid speculation. DAL is speculation.
 
H

hellas

Delta has leveraged EVERY asset it has to a tune of 20 BILLION in debt in a gamble of oil going down and pricing power going up. This statement is as per AW&ST magazine. Delta has no chioce but to recover some of the debt though labor, outsourcing and possibly a merger. IF you really want to look into Delta's future, look at Usair, it is now the new legacy overhaul model. My advice, take your 5000 and put it in construction and home building stocks as well as the suppliers..Bye Bye..
 

twobits

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yes, merger makes perfect sense here. why do you think they are cutting service in Cincinnati? they are trying to increase the percent of local CVG people flying by reducing capacity and shifting it elsewhere. but could it also be the start of a whipsaw between airports to see which one keeps a hub after a merger with nw or co? do you really need a hub in cle and cvg or DTW and CVG? merger or not, they will post whatever loss they feel like, but the important numbers for the short term are operating profit and cash flow from operations. These same analysts and experts that are saying Delta has a few weeks thought Delta was a gonner 1.5 years ago. just my .02
 
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