Delta Rumor Mill....

[Howard Hughes]

These are not my words. I just got this off another forum. Comments?


Hope things are looking up. Just got this today.


First, I want to explain a little about the Executive Jet agreement. One of the reasons we signed this contract is to tie up our gates in LAX and keep them from being taken back by the airport. We have huge plans for international expansion out of LAX including 787s. There will be a multi-billion $$ aircraft order announced after we emerge from BK.

JFK - Realignment of mgt at JFK. Improved passenger flow through terminals. $500 million terminal upgrade. Increase in pay for ground workers. Hiring 400 new ground employees for summer. Whitehurst re-iterated his desire to purchase Jet Blew to get their terminal at JFK.

Boston-Logan - long-term plans for Boston include international expansion with the 757-200ERs. This is not going to happen in the short-term as JFK is the focus for now.

CVG - remain status quo. Most profitable hub in 2006. Some summer increase in flight hours.

Winglets - plan on installing them on all of the 737-800s that have kits already installed and the rest later, all of the 757-ERs we get this summer will have the winglets installed before we put them into service (we will be getting these aircraft earlier than planned). All 757-200 will get winglets except the oldest ones. American has promised a 767-300 to the company that makes the winglets so they can flight-test and certify them. Once certification is complete, we will be installing winglets on all of our 767-300s.

5% increase in flight hours for this summer. Staffing may cause some issues.

ASA in ATL - we are replacing all over and under wing workers with Delta employees.

Debt load - AA - $17B, UA - $19B, DL - $7-8B - we will be in considerably better shape once emerging from BK.

Grinstein plans to retire in August.

All flight attendants will be recalled this summer and they will be hiring off the street. If someone on furlough wants to bypass and does not want to get terminated, they should indicate a base that is not recalling. Whitehurst said Delta will not terminate flight attendants unless they bypass recall to a base they chose to be recalled too.

 

[8vATE]

LOVE your original JETBLEW comment!

You're so smart, witty and well paid.


I'm sure you love the bankruptcy laws too!
Not too proud to shaft your creditors and shareholders?

What a Glorious Airline you fly for!

 

[RJAA]

What?

CVG - remain status quo. Most profitable hub in 2006. Some summer increase in flight hours.

CVG is the most profitable hub? Is that why the erosion in flying up there? Why would it remain a status quo if it's most profitable? Makes no sense

 

[Occam's Razor]

Management-speak. "Profitable" is not the same as "most important" or "largest revenue generator". It means, overall, the RASM was higher than the CASM.

Some of the reasons that might be so are not necessarily good for pilots.

CVG may have had a 14-cents-per-ASM yield, but operated only a small fraction of the ASM's ATL or JFK flew.

 

[SlipItIn]

LOVE your original JETBLEW comment!

You're so smart, witty and well paid.


I'm sure you love the bankruptcy laws too!
Not too proud to shaft your creditors and shareholders?

What a Glorious Airline you fly for!

You jetBlue guys are hopeless. The only reason there is a shred of dignity left in the passenger side of this profession is because of the pre-9/11 contracts of American, Delta, and United. The only chance of the good-old-days being restored will be BECAUSE of the legacy pilots, and IN SPITE OF crap ponzi/pyramid schemes like jetBlue that suck the life out of this profession.

Saw this one the other day:



Business Week: Is JetBlue The Next PEx?
NEWS & INSIGHTS
Is JetBlue The Next People Express?
As its Valentine's Day debacle shows, ferocious growth can be crippling?

Some years ago, a charismatic entrepreneur started a low-cost airline to reinvent the flying experience. With its hub at an underserved New York-area airport, the upstart carrier became the talk of the industry--and grew so fast that in a few years it ranked as fifth-largest. Its founder was lauded as a visionary.

JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU )? Actually, it was now-defunct People Express Airlines, which like JetBlue enjoyed meteoric growth in its early years. After JetBlue's meltdown at JFK Airport during a Valentine's Day ice storm, which left hundreds of passengers stuck on planes for as much as 11 hours, the parallels are even more striking: At both, rapid expansion outstripped management's ability to keep everything together.

JetBlue's executives were clearly chastened by the experience. Chief Executive David Neeleman said afterwards he was "sorry and embarrassed," assuring customers "it will never happen again." But industry insiders believe the JFK debacle was inevitable. After seven years of nearly unbridled growth, the $2.4 billion carrier was slow to upgrade operational systems that could have minimized the problems. "They can't keep running off a legal pad and No. 2 pencil," says a longtime industry executive.

JetBlue's fortunes started to unravel when it lost $32 million in the first quarter of 2006 because of rising fuel costs and moves into new markets. Neeleman cut costs and was back in the black by the next quarter. But the result, say industry insiders, was that necessary upgrades to its systems weren't completed, leaving the airline unable to juggle flight delays like the ones at JFK.

Already overburdened crew scheduling systems failed, so flight crews weren't rerouted to their next assignment. The reservation and call-center systems still haven't been updated, some say. JetBlue "may have been too aggressive in cutting costs," says Ray Neidl, a Calyon Securities usa Inc. analyst. A JetBlue spokeswoman attributes the problems to human error. "I wouldn't say our systems failed," she says.

TURBULENCE AHEAD
For now, no one thinks JetBlue will go the way of People, which was forced to offload assets in 1987 after its disastrous acquisition of Frontier Airlines. New York-based JetBlue, with $699 million in cash, has a far stronger balance sheet. Equally important, the carrier has started easing off its growth plans. Last December, Neeleman pushed back delivery of 36 Embraer and Airbus jets until the next decade, though he's on the hook for 22 planes this year.

Still, analysts believe JetBlue will face more headwinds than in its first seven years, when major carriers were in bankruptcy and too weak to defend their turf. To keep growing, the carrier needs to expand outside its New York stronghold, and analysts think few areas are left. "They've got a lot of planes on order, and there aren't many markets you can throw 150-seat airplanes into," says aviation consultant Mike Boyd.

What's more, its current fleet will soon need costly maintainance, expenses that JetBlue may be underestimating. Nonunion pilots could be an issue as well. JetBlue recruited them with stock options that more than made up for below-average pay and longer work hours. But with the stock now 60% off its 2003 high, pilots may feel the pinch. "I wouldn't be surprised to see union organizing later this year," says consultant Stuart Klaskin. So JetBlue must deal with its growing pains or risk going the way of People Express.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

You have to wonder is the LCC will start going through the same cycle that the legacies have gone through. It happens to the best of them. I guess they will have to or they will no longer be LCC.

 

[CitationLover]

There will be a multi-billion $$ aircraft order announced after we emerge from BK.

Debt load - AA - $17B, UA - $19B, DL - $7-8B - we will be in considerably better shape once emerging from BK.

so Delta's debt load won't be $8B........

AA shed $2B of its debt last year, so i think the figure they state is off.

 

[eaglefly]

In regard to JetBlow, perhaps at the end of their "contracts", pilots would have to agree to non-union status or be fired. Maybe, Neeleman could preemptively start canning certain pilots to insure no union. IF a union ever makes it onto JetBlow property, the "nice guys" days of now will be over. They'll be just another advasarial, combative airline. The other option is no union and continued fleecing at RJ rates for the 190 and maybe pawn some more busses off to Europe.

I'm not predicting faliure but once the last planes come (and any that get sold), I see stagnation, average pay and dissatisfaction.

In other words, just another Regional.

 

[clickclickboom]

In regard to JetBlow, perhaps at the end of their "contracts", pilots would have to agree to non-union status or be fired. Maybe, Neeleman could preemptively start canning certain pilots to insure no union. IF a union ever makes it onto JetBlow property, the "nice guys" days of now will be over. They'll be just another advasarial, combative airline. The other option is no union and continued fleecing at RJ rates for the 190 and maybe pawn some more busses off to Europe.

I'm not predicting faliure but once the last planes come (and any that get sold), I see stagnation, average pay and dissatisfaction.

In other words, just another Regional.

You show this board one pilot that was brought into the CP's office at the expiration of his 5 year contract and canned and I will actually offer some validity to your retarded post.

FYI the contracts are all being re-written with merger protection for the pilots. The language on the contract will read that unless we are hired at the new company we will have our 5 year contract paid at guarantee til expiration. In addition the pilots will be able to excercise their shares which in my case would give me a windfall if the shares hit $40 with the announcement of a merger.

and the best part of the deal is that the pilots would receive profit sharing on a proposed buyout. The number thrown around has been 5-7 billion subtract out 2.6 billion in debt and do the math.

Delta or some other airline may love to get out their stapler for a buyout but there are going to be hundreds of blue millionaires out there flying around

 

[FDJ2]

The language on the contract will read that unlesswe are hired at the new company we will have our 5 year contract paid at guarantee til expiration. In addition the pilots will be able to excercise their shares which in my case would give me a windfall if the shares hit $40 with the announcement of a merger.

Wow, that's some merger/fragmentation protection. Getting "hired" on to the bottom of the list.

JBLU shares at $40? When was the last time you saw that? It's selling in the low teens isn't it? You might see 10% increase in share price maybe even 20%, but I doubt you'll see 300% if JBLU is acquired or fragmented.

Do you have stock options or grants and at what price do you have them?

 

[Smarta$$]

You jetBlue guys are hopeless. The only reason there is a shred of dignity left in the passenger side of this profession is because of the pre-9/11 contracts of American, Delta, and United. The only chance of the good-old-days being restored will be BECAUSE of the legacy pilots, and IN SPITE OF crap ponzi/pyramid schemes like jetBlue that suck the life out of this profession.quote]

Yeah, all that scope you guys gave away did wonders for this profession. Give yourself a pat on the back for that one!

 

[DoubleDropRise]

In regard to JetBlow, perhaps at the end of their "contracts", pilots would have to agree to non-union status or be fired. Maybe, Neeleman could preemptively start canning certain pilots to insure no union. IF a union ever makes it onto JetBlow property, the "nice guys" days of now will be over. They'll be just another advasarial, combative airline. The other option is no union and continued fleecing at RJ rates for the 190 and maybe pawn some more busses off to Europe.

I'm not predicting faliure but once the last planes come (and any that get sold), I see stagnation, average pay and dissatisfaction.

In other words, just another Regional.

Hey EagleBoy
Do you hate all jetBlue pilots or just the ones that flagged you on phase I?

 

[clickclickboom]

Wow, that's some merger/fragmentation protection. Getting "hired" on to the bottom of the list.

JBLU shares at $40? When was the last time you saw that? It's selling in the low teens isn't it? You might see 10% increase in share price maybe even 20%, but I doubt you'll see 300% if JBLU is acquired or fragmented.

Do you have stock options or grants and at what price do you have them?

So if there was a proposed merger /buyout you think the shares would only go up 10%?

 

[lowecur]

First, I want to explain a little about the Executive Jet agreement. One of the reasons we signed this contract is to tie up our gates in LAX and keep them from being taken back by the airport. We have huge plans for international expansion out of LAX including 787s. There will be a multi-billion $$ aircraft order announced after we emerge from BK.

I think he means the ExpressJet deal to fly (10) 145's to the ski areas from LAX. Just another ploy to tie up the gates until they come out of BK in May. LAX has every intention of tossing DL out as they have cost them millions with their game playing. The credibility of this whole ramble is suspect because of mis-info.

What will be interesting is whether DL will benefit or lose if the new open sky agreement with EU is agreed to. Certainly opening gates at Heathrow will help all the other carriers that can't compete in that monopoly, but the yields from the US to EU will drop dramatically in the coming years, hurting those carriers that rely on that traffic to pump up their bottom line (which is exactly why DL decided to expand their EU market). There's talk of the big LCC's in Europe looking at Trans Atlantic routes if that happens.

Also, part of the agreement is the foreign ownership in US airlines. Apparently they will be allowed to buy 100% of the non-voting stock in lieu of the old 25%. This should give Branson the green light he needs to get Virgin US underway.

imp:​

 

[jbucpt]

In regard to JetBlow, perhaps at the end of their "contracts", pilots would have to agree to non-union status or be fired. Maybe, Neeleman could preemptively start canning certain pilots to insure no union. IF a union ever makes it onto JetBlow property, the "nice guys" days of now will be over. They'll be just another advasarial, combative airline. The other option is no union and continued fleecing at RJ rates for the 190 and maybe pawn some more busses off to Europe.

I'm not predicting faliure but once the last planes come (and any that get sold), I see stagnation, average pay and dissatisfaction.

In other words, just another Regional.

fleecing rates?? thats classic. i was very impressed how the ALPA eagle pilots bent over when trans states took their flying in stl. maybe because ALPA tsa rates were lower?????

maybe we should tell neeleman that instead of a 5 year contract we should sign a 15 year contract. that might stop the "fleecing".

 

[Howard Hughes]

Again, these are not my words. Just copied and pasted from another message board. I dont have any idea about the validity of the claims and the Jetblew comment wasnt mine either. Carry on....

LOVE your original JETBLEW comment!

You're so smart, witty and well paid.


I'm sure you love the bankruptcy laws too!
Not too proud to shaft your creditors and shareholders?

What a Glorious Airline you fly for!

 

[Marko Ramius]

You have to wonder is the LCC will start going through the same cycle that the legacies have gone through. It happens to the best of them. I guess they will have to or they will no longer be LCC.

No you don't, it's been going on for some time now. Just because most of us have been ignoring it for years, doesn't mean anything. Things take time to materialize, just like the decline in 50 seat RJ usage that was predicted long ago and ignored by most. LCC's thirve primarily on high density markets where they can maintain good frequency, strong loads and therefore low fares. Of course each individual carrier does it in their own unique way, but the underlying principles are the same. However there is a natural limit to how many of these markets can be served profitably. LCC expansion has already seen blowback in other countries because the overall size of the market elsewhere is smaller than the US. This has occurred between @15-20 % of the overall market elsewhere, and given the larger size of the US market most analysts say that steady state it should be @30% of so in the US. I believe the market is already at or above those numbers, which means there will be some form of correction.

Not surprisingly the country's two oldest LCC's Southwest and America West saw it first and have launched the first moves. There are plenty of quotes from their CEO's from 3 years ago with them saying that there are too many LCC's out there. They never finished the sentence, but there subsequent moves have. Southwest essentially neutered ATA to lock down the Chicago LCC market and dip their toes into things like Hawaii and Int'l service and non-traditional Southwest markets like DCA and LGA. The latter is also exemplified in their moves into PHL and IAD. This is essential to compete against Jet Blue and AirTran who don't subscribe to the traditional Southwest model of avoiding high density airports. They have also gone into places like DEN(F9) and are returning to SFO ahead of Virgin. AmWest failed at getting ATA, but recovered by getting UsAirways. That gives them a dominant LCC presence in the types of markets JetBlue and Airtran operate plus a boatload of intl compared to other LCC's. They also have the most comprehensive codeshare destination reach of the LCC's by far. They have purchased 190's and seem to be willing to compete vs. the old UsAirways that had been retrenching in recent years. I think the moves by Southwest and Airways, plus the large number of a/c on order put pressure on the other guys-especially since the legacies aren't easy marks anymore which means increasing competition with each other. AirTran seems to be the most active of the remaining carriers but has been stymied thus far in it's attempts to get ATA and Midwest leaving it with a balky deal with Frontier. The rest seem to be a bit lost right now, but should hang on fine unless a downturn occurs. JetBlue, like the airline that it is oft compared to PEX, has value because of it's gates but I don't think the same could be said of Frontier, Midex, or Spirt. UA may be willing to overpay for Frontier to give it a monopoly in DEN and ensure that there is no money to give to their employees in the next round contracts, but that's probably it.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

IE we will all struggle along until something truly breaks free.

 

[FDJ2]

So if there was a proposed merger /buyout you think the shares would only go up 10%?

I said 10% maybe 20% but definitely not 300%. Of course if it is only an asset acquisition agreement it might be less.

 

[Marko Ramius]

IE we will all struggle along until something truly breaks free.

Or there is no one left and we turn into one big Aeroflot/Amtrak/Conrail!!