Factually incorrect? Wow, you got me on a technicality. NWA became DL. You probably understood what I meant.
No, it was clear you weren't educated on how we got the -900's, and in my experience in threads with you there's a long history of you being completely oblivious with the details of the regionals. If I'd guessed what you meant I would have asked to clarify but it's clear to any reader you meant something completely different than what was factually correct. You seem to imply if one were to simply shift DL out and put in it's place NWA that you would have been correct. What you typed- "Your company and others initially got your Surge 9s thanks to DL's BK problems" is incorrect. Ours were replacements for the Avro's in the contract and I thought it was agreed by all in the industry that NWA held onto their scope (and pension) tighter than Delta did during the BK. In exchange for more 76seaters, a company called compass was formed which had flowdown protection for mainline jobs. Mesaba was very lucky to get some flowup privileges with some flowdown.
One could argue NWA made the wrong move from a contract standpoint. I was told that Delta's contract was worth (total dollars per pilot) more than NWA, but NWA did hold on very tight to that scope (and pension). It appears to me we are talking about two very different things. Perhaps other posters will jump in with more details.
There was a flow agreement with Mesaba and incredibly some of your pilots actually turned it down. That is a mistake they think about now most likely.
Firstly what does this have to do with anything? You've only had this explained to you 100 times over by 50 different posters and you're still misinformed? Maybe the more important question is, why are you so arrogant you can criticize everyone's decisions, but for now I would simply leave you with the rhetorical question how short do you think our memories are?
Secondly, some of those guys you are calling a mistaken are retiring this year or next (if not already) and would have never made up the lost income by flowing to NWA. Even if we had shut down on Jan 16th, and they lost out on a years income they couldn't make up the difference. Seriously man, we've got guys born in the late 40's here.
Thirdly, I can attest there are a couple guys who said no to the flow who would like a redo on the condition they know then what they know now. It's an elementary and juvenile point, which I'm not saying you're above, but if that is your point you should make that clear. Anyone with any brains could see their position and the paycut NWA had at the time and sympathize if not agree with their reasoning (with information available on hand). If you are lost on this matter you can always crack open an excel sheet and do it yourself, takes no time at all. You might have a time to find the old NWA contract rates and the old Mesaba concessionary rates (even I don't have those anymore) Realistically though, if they are that young they'll have plenty of time to get on somewhere with an interview so it might be a slight speed bump but what career doesn't have them?
You're right about DL deciding to drop certain cities in favor of a "gulfstream-esque" Saab 340 dropping in there. But, that was the city pair that RA mentioned in the interview, and there will be 125 50 seaters left. They will likely go to smaller cities that can produce enough revenue to pay for the gas and a bit more. Obviously not a lot of smaller cities can do that today with a 50 seat gas guzzler.
As far as the virtual airline goes, code shares, joint ventures, and alliances have increased that. But, the contract states certain minimums for mainline fleet numbers and DCI fleet numbers. WIth the addition of 88 717s and 14 Md90s, along with 739s replacing some 757s/A320s/763s, it looks like the domestic arena is not going virtual. The INTL fleets are also all getting remods for AVOD and new lie flat seats, so they don't seem to be going away. Those alliances also help gain pax in the countries that the legacies cannot fly WITHIN, like intra China. That fills the legacy widebodies at the permitted cities, like Beijing and Shanghai, and they go out full. As far as the Regionals go, it now seems like mainline is ready to take a lot of the flying back, with 717s. Maybe they can control the product better, and of course spread the costs out more with a larger plane. It helps they got a smokin good deal, too, with the leases and refurb from SWA.
Umm, pax want lie flat seats, video on demand, etc. If you don't add those things, you can lose high valued customers. Looks like DL is adding that on all INTL fleets. That's good.
You said a lot to make two points. Anyway to reply to:
They will likely go to smaller cities that can produce enough revenue to pay for the gas and a bit more.
What you said was the 900 would take those small city pairs, now you are saying the 50 seaters will (and they already do). You keep using "they" "it" and other general terms and it is confusing to the reader. You may be making valid points here somewhere, but at this point I'm lost. You are either changing your position or by "they" you mean the -900's not the 50seaters which the "they" is pointing to in that sentence. Truthfully I'm not sure if I'm even grammatically readable anymore. This would be a more useful conversation to everyone if you would simply go point by point.
Assuming you meant the -900's, I think that's naive and incorrect but we'll see. I imagine it will continue doing hub to hub and hub to the SEA's and SFO's and PHX's of the US long into the future. Time will tell.
Assuming you mean the 50seaters will continue to serve small markets because their gas usage sucks and there will only be 125, I don't think anyone is disagreeing here. We were all saying that Delta will push for more 76seaters at the regional level, and that they will succeed. You are saying (later quoted) Delta is bringing on too many mainline jets (717's 737's and the like) for the 76seaters to capture the domestic share, although you admit some are simply replacements, I'd reply that only time will tell on those moves.
it looks like the domestic arena is not going virtual.
It is for right this minute, however the additional 76seaters many see as troubling sign for the future (illustrated above). I think most of us would hope you are correct, however, BK will occur and we all know what the "scope crowbar" has done in the past. It would appear you are only looking 5-7 years into the future, and no more. Would you say that is correct? To me it seems like you're saying "the days of BK are over boys, drink up".
