Delta in SEA?

[General Lee]

i would imagine it would be the same type of merger that happened with NW. ratio SLI with regards to type of equipment. actually, it is pretty easy to interpolate the result based on the current DAL/NW SLI results. however, that math problem is above my pay grade!!

i would think that DAL would want AK as a strategic move to protect feed for the Asia ops. AMR could cripple DAL's Asia ops by purchasing AK.

the other option is to grow north/south mainline ops on top of AK's routes which seems HIGHLY unlikely.

the codeshare is nice for now, but wouldn't allow me to sleep at night if i were DAL CEO. i would be really worried about AMR buying AK.

Ratios would be the same format (not exactly the same numbers----now there are 12,434 pilots on one side, and 1505 on the other), but no plug and play with retirements.

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

If Delta buys Alaska, would Alaska pilots get retro? Is their any precedence for a company being bought while in contract negotiations past the amendable date?

Doubt it. If you were included in our joint contract, at that time you would receive current rates probably. I doubt retro would be included. That is your deal now.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Clippy... it is what it is. 274 pull and plugs is effectively 548 pilots. Bloch was trying to look forward 10 years and awarded you the benefit of your attrition now. Of course by then Delta's attrition will be in its wave, but Delta guys will be below the FNWA.

If you were a young NWA pilot, you did VERY well. Older NWA pretty much got status quo, with the benefit of being able to shop better equipment and bases (for the most part).

If the economy didn't wipe out my plans B, C and D, I'd have resigned from DAL after the result. However, the economy being what it is, I'm grateful to lose 5 seats and my base to remain actively employed.

Going from a line holder on the 767 to DC9 B does sting a little when you compare it to Delta's stand alone plans. Nothing I can do about it.

Not bitter, but at the same time, I'm not going to lie and make happy talk. It is what it is.

Fins,

You do have to remember that they did have 200 guys go before DCC, and that was not included in the final numbers. That was a bonus for us. Also, I don't really think you will have to go to the DC9 anytime soon. I would think no bump and flush could keep you on the MD88 in ATL if you wanted it. There are probably some guys that would commute to DTW or MSP to stay on the 757 if there was a flood of guys leaving those bases for ATL. I see an FMS in your future at least.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[~~~^~~~]

General, if SD'd comments about moving about half the MD88 fleet North is true, 2001 hires and up will be lucky to stay in Atlanta. The only hope is to bid the DC9 (if it comes South).

 

[clippyrip]

Clippy... it is what it is. 274 pull and plugs is effectively 548 pilots.

That is some fuzzy math.

If you were a young NWA pilot, you did VERY well.

I don't wan't to get back into this again for the eleventy billionth time but let me tell you about how "VERY well" this young FNWA pilot did. I start off at 1% behind, bottom out out at 10% behind, to never fully recover with a finish at 2% behind. So much for relative seniority and the young NWA pilots did "VERY well".

 

[General Lee]

General, if SD'd comments about moving about half the MD88 fleet North is true, 2001 hires and up will be lucky to stay in Atlanta. The only hope is to bid the DC9 (if it comes South).

SD said that? Half? I see us getting some more MD90s and maybe moving them up there, but I doubt we would reduce seat numbers in ATL when competing with Airtran. I know DC9s will go on some of their routes to compete, but the MD88s will still be around in mass. I guess we will have to see. Just remember, after 9-11 a lot of people were disrupted, but they all got back to where they wanted to be in due time. This isn't about DL trying to make your life tougher, it is about being flexible in this industry.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FBN0223]

the codeshare is nice for now, but wouldn't allow me to sleep at night if i were DAL CEO. i would be really worried about AMR buying AK.

I believe that NWA had "first right of refusal" should Alaska put itself up for sale. That's is what I had heard around NATCO, but I never did see the actual documentation. In any case, if such right existed, would it be transferable to Delta?

I do know the RA thinks highly of Alaska. When he was back at NWA, there were hints of him wanting to merge NW and AK. I don't think at the time Alaska was interested.

BTW, Alaska is one great airline. I've ridden the jumpseat several times and the crews are always very cool.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Clippy, are you mid-seniority?

What if you adjust for equipment?

I am NOT saying you are wrong, but your outcome is quite different than the charts I've been looking at, particularly when adjusted for bidding power (equipment & pay).

 

[NuGuy]

Best I can tell, there was NO regard for type of equipment, hence about 60% of the airline is out of position for their seniority on the combined list. I can look for the quotes if you need them, but Bloch broke new ground in using future attrition as a present day equity and effectively disregarded current day status quo.

However, Delta's rather large displacement bid is correcting a lot of this, prior to the Northwest pilots being able to use their 10 year seniority adjustment to shop the Delta positions.

If Alaska got the same integration methodology the NWA pilots got (Bloch liked to see different colors mixed throughout the list) expect quite a few 737 to Whale and 777 bids.

Heyas Fins,

You are correct. Both sides lost on the SLI to some degree.

NWA took the hit in expected attrition. We lost about 1/2 the total number of "pull out" pilots expected in three years in only six months.

The DAL guys, the junior most especially, got killed by the lack of a fence.

Both sides would have immensely benefited from a complete, airtight fence for five years.

And this was between two fairly similar carriers.

The only thing a "ratio by equipment" does, like what the general suggested, is protect the senior at the carrier with "better" positions (they are already in the "good positions"), and provide a windfall to the senior at the "smaller" carrier (who will be able to "bid up" almost immediately).

The junior at the smaller carrier benefits because now they have an improved career pathway.

It's the junior at the larger carrier that gets totally hosed. They get a pile of guys dumped into the "career pathway" that had absolutely zero expectation beyond NB Captain. In this case, you'd have a dilution of the attrition that NWA brought, along with the diluted WB positions that DL brought. Lose/lose/lose for the junior NW/DL guys.

Ironically, the NWA/Republic merger may provide the solution. Dissimilar carriers, so ratio/DOH merger, then a TALL 20 year fence.

Nu

 

[~~~^~~~]

SD said that?....it is about being flexible in this industry.

Bye Bye--General Lee

I think the point was increasing the MD88's flexibility by using it where it could hit both coasts. Our hope is the DC9 would backfill. Have not heard anything about moving the baby bus South.

It's business and Delta probably doesn't like the award either due to the amount of training that is the likely result of all the bidding once airplanes move, but it doesn't matter, it is what it is.

It will be sure be interesting to see what happens with the 757/767/ER fleet, although (like 9/11) it will be the better part of a decade before us junior folks enjoy the QOL we had in the summer of 2008.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Heyas Fins,

NWA took the hit in expected attrition. We lost about 1/2 the total number of "pull out" pilots expected in three years in only six months.

The DAL guys, the junior most especially, got killed by the lack of a fence.

Both sides would have immensely benefited from a complete, airtight fence for five years.

And this was between two fairly similar carriers.

Nu

Your analysis is spot on. Your entire post is really good (although I only quoted part of it. I agree completely.

 

[clippyrip]

Clippy, are you mid-seniority?

Let's just say my new number has 12K in it. Those percentages were spot on. If you've ever seen the website EZopenboard.com it lays it all out based on your particular number. Now I'm not complaining because its not something that can be changed anyway but I want others to know that some of us did a lot worse than relative seniority. l lose 10% relative seniority mid career, that is F'n huge. Oh well, I got a job.

Sorry for the thread creep yall.

 

[clippyrip]

Ironically, the NWA/Republic merger may provide the solution. Dissimilar carriers, so ratio/DOH merger, then a TALL 20 year fence.

Nu

I agree. I hate to say it because that award built resentment within the ranks but its only fair. Otherwise the bottom half of the list gets screwed.

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

Ironically, the NWA/Republic merger may provide the solution. Dissimilar carriers, so ratio/DOH merger, then a TALL 20 year fence.

Nu

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! That's a good one....

 

[General Lee]

I think the point was increasing the MD88's flexibility by using it where it could hit both coasts. Our hope is the DC9 would backfill. Have not heard anything about moving the baby bus South.

It's business and Delta probably doesn't like the award either due to the amount of training that is the likely result of all the bidding once airplanes move, but it doesn't matter, it is what it is.

It will be sure be interesting to see what happens with the 757/767/ER fleet, although (like 9/11) it will be the better part of a decade before us junior folks enjoy the QOL we had in the summer of 2008.

Delta will never give up gates at ATL. If they did, SWA could come in. If the airport builds more terminals, DL will try to fill the gates. The DC9s could be used to fill those gates, but it is a matter of time until they leave, and DL knows that. DL wants to rule KATL, and that won't change. The 50 seat RJs are going away, and 76 seaters can't really compete with Airtran (which is why we are adding DC9s to the schedule). In the meantime, you will see new additions to the DL fleet at ATL (744 and A330), and you will be able to bid them just like every other DL and FNWA guy (although the 744 is 5 years after SOC). Until then, hang on to something with an FMS.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[licorice]

Best I can tell, there was NO regard for type of equipment, hence about 60% of the airline is out of position for their seniority on the combined list.......

Fins, the list was merged by widebody then narrowbody positions, as I'm sure you are well aware. While it was not done in a precisely detailed manner, -ratioed to specific individual types of equipment, I'll bet it would very closely mirror such a detailed list. I'm not sure what you mean by "60% of the airline is out of position...." Surely you realize the list had to be filled in by "stovepipe" methodology... there is no other possible legal way to fill in positions on a new, combined seniority list. The current aircraft position you happen to enjoy right now has a very loose correlation with your permanent, indisputable, set-in-stone, linear relative position on the seniority list. That was true before the merger and will be true after the merger and will always be true to a certain extent. There are many who are clearly flying "out of position" (both junior and senior) but I doubt it's 60%, -it would depend on how precisely you define "out of position". Unless the actual positions held correlated exactly with the stovepipe list then we would all be flying "out of position". I think this fear on the part of the junior DL pilots of being displaced en masse by their NW brothers is highly overstated. It is founded on the idea that DAL positions/bases are somehow "better" than NWA's, something I'm sure NWA guys would never in a million years agree with. Because of this fear, the positions held at DAL, at least, and most likely NWA, will probably become more "rationalized" ie. closer to a "stovepipe" positioning before SOC, and will make it harder for anyone at either airline to "get a good deal (out of seniority)" on positions at the "other" airline after SOC.

......If Alaska got the same integration methodology the NWA pilots got (Bloch liked to see different colors mixed throughout the list) expect quite a few 737 to Whale and 777 bids.....

I don't think he did the list by "colors". The AK guys would most likely and logically be combined starting at the top of the narrowbody capt. group. They would probably be "fenced in" somehow, for a while, but even if not, they would have to go through a ton of 757, 767-300,-400 and A330 pilots before they could get their hands on a 747 or 777.

 

[FBN0223]

Delta will never give up gates at ATL. If they did, SWA could come in. If the airport builds more terminals, DL will try to fill the gates.
Bye Bye--General Lee

One thing you have to like about RA is that he doesn't like competition. When other airlines compete he goes on offense. SWA will have a tough time in MSP making money. As Ed said, "We have a nice welcoming party waiting for them(SWA)."

On a side note, it is nice to have a leader going after the competition rather than the employees.

The only thing I'll miss about NWA is the complimentary "dougweisers" from the cabin crew. cheers

 

[ExAF]

Please Move On

Clippy... it is what it is. 274 pull and plugs is effectively 548 pilots. Bloch was trying to look forward 10 years and awarded you the benefit of your attrition now. Of course by then Delta's attrition will be in its wave, but Delta guys will be below the FNWA.

If you were a young NWA pilot, you did VERY well. Older NWA pretty much got status quo, with the benefit of being able to shop better equipment and bases (for the most part).

If the economy didn't wipe out my plans B, C and D, I'd have resigned from DAL after the result. However, the economy being what it is, I'm grateful to lose 5 seats and my base to remain actively employed. Further, who knows if Delta would have actually executed their stand alone plan(s) in this economy (probably they'd have retrenched).

Going from a border line holder on the 767 to DC9 B does sting a little when you compare it to Delta's stand alone plans. Nothing I can do about it.

Not bitter & sure not trying to offend you or anyone else, but at the same time, I'm not going to lie and make happy talk. It is what it is.

Somebody call a WAAAAAAAAMBULANCE! It's over and done with. Everybody got screwed one way or another. Nobody likes it, but, like you said, it is what it is. Just move on will ya.

 

[Fubijaakr]

I don't think he did the list by "colors". The AK guys would most likely and logically be combined starting at the top of the narrowbody capt. group. They would probably be "fenced in" somehow, for a while, but even if not, they would have to go through a ton of 757, 767-300,-400 and A330 pilots before they could get their hands on a 747 or 777.

Once again, I think you're right on the mark.

 

[licorice]

Heyas Fins,




The only thing a "ratio by equipment" does, like what the general suggested, is protect the senior at the carrier with "better" positions (they are already in the "good positions"), and provide a windfall to the senior at the "smaller" carrier (who will be able to "bid up" almost immediately).



Nu

Although I understand what you are saying, some senior NWA might disagree with your assessment that they experienced a "windfall". Glaring example: Sept. 1985 DAL hire at approx. 400 on the combined list, Sept. 1985 NWA hire at approx. 2800, a difference of 2400 numbers. The whole idea that NW will have all these extra positions to bid after SOC, while true technically, is suspect in actual practice. I get the sense that everyone (both NWA & DAL) is looking at what their hypothetical seniority can/can't hold based on a complete system re-bid (bump-and-flush) after SOC, which, of course, won't happen. Both sides have claimed much "out of seniority" flying. This will become "rationalized" (esp. on the DAL side, because that is where the greatest perceived "opportunity/vulnerability" lies) as we approach SOC. Thus, in a rationalized list, for every "choice" position bid by a NWA guy, there would likely be 1.4 DAL guys with equivalent seniority bidding the same position. Besides, mathematically it can't work out, how many DAL "newhires" or otherwise "extremely junior, way out of seniority" pilots are actually flying widebody positions? I'll bet it's on the order of 100-200 at most. So the literally thousands of narrowbody copilots senior to them all think they are a "shoe in" for those positions...it won't happen and it can't happen -mathematically-. We will assimilate, and no doubt there will eventually be more FNWA in FDAL positions/bases than vice-versa...(ie. -your allusion to the "better" positions)...but it won't happen overnight...