Delta in LAX

[ACL65PILOT]

FIN;
DCI is not growing, it is shrinking too. The large pull down of DCI may be a little more drawn out than originally planned. It makes sense to drag it out until 2010.
We as a company need to get some narrow body lift on order or 2012 will be a very painful year for this pilot group!

 

[FBN0223]

FIN;

We as a company need to get some narrow body lift on order or 2012 will be a very painful year for this pilot group!

Order has already been placed, training department organized, manuals written and pilot positions awarded. And the DC-9 lives another day.

Until the economy swings upward, the DC-9 will provide the lift in which you speak. As Richard says, one of our primary missions is to pay down our debt. Using fully-owned aircraft instead of buying new is a good way to accomplish this in a tough economy.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Quite true. This is short term. I was referring to the long term. As we have discussed and beaten to the pulp, those 9's get mighty expensive to maintain after 2012. That is the time period that should concern the bottom 1000 or so.

 

[~~~^~~~]

FIN;
DCI is not growing, it is shrinking too.

The 40/50 seaters have never been much of a threat to mainline. The 70 & 76 seaters are.

Do you contend the large RJ operations are shrinking? I'll double check, but I thought Compass and Mesaba were growing by more than 50% on an annual basis, SkyWest, Pinnacle, ASA and even Comair saw some large RJ growth. Am I mistaken?

If so, I'll start digging through BTS stats.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

They are shrinking, if you look at it year over year. Most not all but most of the 76 seat jets that have come online have replaced 2 50's. You will see more of that.
I agree that those jets are a huge threat to the 9's, 88's, 320's and some 73N routes. If you allow scope to 100 seat you can kiss all but a few of the 320's and 737's good bye.

 

[~~~^~~~]

I think they grew on a seat mile basis. I'll look it up to be sure. Fleet numbers, you might be right with Mesa all but gone. Wonder what has been going on with Chatauqua. They might have had a net loss of airframes with Comair and ASA.

Shuttle America, Mesaba and Compass's growth is what I'm referring to. Only two mainline flights a day between "Delta's" two largest hubs.

 

[NuGuy]

As we have discussed and beaten to the pulp, those 9's get mighty expensive to maintain after 2012. That is the time period that should concern the bottom 1000 or so.

Heyas ACL,

You guys are fixated on 2012 for some reason. If you're talking about the AD, it is cycle based, not time based, and even at the higher utilization projection of this year, most don't start cycling out until well past 2015.

Not to mention, there are still lower time -9s in the desert that they swap out when one hits the mark.

I agree that the 100 seat aircraft is a long term issue, But the name on the data plate makes no difference, the flying still belongs to us.

Nu

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Well Nu, the DAL was is to erode scope. Lets hope we can keep it where it's at.

2012 is a number that we are myopic on because it is a number that the guys in fleet planning are myopic on. That is all. Plus, there are some costs associated with keeping the jet past then anyway.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Eye Candy for those of us looking for a DC9 replacement program:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmMePyXD750&feature=related

Cheezy video - but nice flight deck:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTHt02M5Wn8

 

[NuGuy]

Eye Candy for those of us looking for a DC9 replacement program:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmMePyXD750&feature=related

Cheezy video - but nice flight deck:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTHt02M5Wn8

Hmmmm. I heard that Bombardier was twisting itself into knots trying to get the first customer.

Nu

 

[DYLIN]

Question: If furlough means a number at the top of the list at Compass, that is probably a better job than most of the junior pilots on the 737, 88 and 9 have. Anyone proffer the idea that we could bid for displacement to Compass? It seems to make sense to let those would would want to fly left seat of the replacement aircraft to bid it, honoring seniority. Of course that used to be just a NWA deal, now it is a Delta deal too.

Bid to displace to another company?? Furlough and flowback, yes, but not displace to another company.

Secondly, let me tell ya. A junior pilot on any mainline aircraft is probably going to have better QOL than all but the very most senior Compass pilots (I mean top 5-10%). PBS is now in effect at Compass and the average days off for the top third, middle third, and bottom third of pilots is all 12 days a month. Not to mention the work rules (Compass has nearly no downtown layovers...you don't get paid for the day off on a 36 hour layover...3.5 min guarantee and no trip rig/duty rig...etc.) at mainline are far superior as well as pay and the entire mentality and atmosphere.

 

[General Lee]

Quite true. This is short term. I was referring to the long term. As we have discussed and beaten to the pulp, those 9's get mighty expensive to maintain after 2012. That is the time period that should concern the bottom 1000 or so.

You mean the bottom 400. If they furlough anyone hired before 9-1-01, then they have to dump 6 seats from EVERY CR9, E175, etc, costing big bucks in revenue and sweat. Due to relative seniority from the SLI, many FNWA pilots were mixed in with 07 DL hires, thus protecting more pilots in total. I have a feeling SOC will happen before 2012.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[aewanabe]

The 40/50 seaters have never been much of a threat to mainline. The 70 & 76 seaters are.

Do you contend the large RJ operations are shrinking? I'll double check, but I thought Compass and Mesaba were growing by more than 50% on an annual basis, SkyWest, Pinnacle, ASA and even Comair saw some large RJ growth. Am I mistaken?

If so, I'll start digging through BTS stats.

Fins, no dog in your specific fight, but the 40/50 seaters are most definitely a threat to mainline. In 2002 hundreds of routes formerly flown by 727s and 737-200s were replaced with CL-200s and E145s. Almost without exception those routes have not gone back to mainline metal. Those of us who lived through this sorry bit of history are most certainly doomed to repeat it if we fail to remember. It's true that an E175 or Crj-900 looks more like a mainline jet with F/C seats, but DCI never hesitated putting smaller jets on runs that were former mainline by the hundreds.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

That is unless that part of the contract is renegotiated. I am always a skeptic.

 

[clippyrip]

many FNWA pilots were mixed in with 07 DL hires, thus protecting more pilots in total.

Bitter and sweet.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

True, unless they decided to furlough before SOC. I am sure that if they decide to they can delay SOC to do so.

 

[Superpilot92]

True, unless they decided to furlough before SOC. I am sure that if they decide to they can delay SOC to do so.

Is the DAL side still considered to be "overstaffed"?

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

Last I looked we were slightly "overstaffed." Its a small margin, and a furlough wouldn't be justified by cost of flowback.

 

[Superpilot92]

Last I looked we were slightly "overstaffed." Its a small margin, and a furlough wouldn't be justified by cost of flowback.

thats what i figured, it looks like both sides are just realigning the fleets and bases.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Beat me to it Peanuckle.

We are overstaffed buy such a small margin. How the loads are the next two months will determine if there is a need for further capacity reductions.

Now this is our slowest time of the year.
For example. The flts this weekends to Dallas had 70+ seat open on each flight, but the return flights to ATL on Friday were full. With loads being so hit and miss, it is really hard to forecast future loads.