DCI to lose 4000 hours by Spring

[10nCLR]

It is 90% of current fleet except for aircraft that the leases expire on. The leases on these 8 aircraft have reached the end of their terms and won't be renewed.

Well, I guess SkyWest will get another batch of junky Comair a/c for their possible MidWest Connect expansion.

 

[V-1]

I think the average maturity of posters on this board is about age nine.

Many years ago, this used to be a quality place to get information...then the idiots arrived.

 

[Socalplt]

Rumor has it 4 Delta CRJ200s at SkyWest will be used for Midwest flying next year. I think there's an equal number of 900s coming to replace them however.

 

[Max Powers]

Guys, 4000 block hours really isnt that much if you think about it. I;m assuming it means 4000 hrs/month. If one a/c flies avg 7-8 hours a day, that's about 220-240 hrs/month. That's approx 17 a/c worth of flying. As stated before, Comair is losing some CRJ-100s and CHQ is dropping their EMB-135s eventually. I am willing to bet that will be it. Probably some reduced flying for everybody else but I doubt ASA or SKYW will actually park planes.

Probably true but I think it just may be the beginning of the pain with more to come.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I believe that the BK thing was stated at CMR, as being possible. It was stated in the same breath as being spun off from DAL. Look at where the new BK thing was posted. It was left vague, but look at the context of the statement. It had to do with CMR, doom and gloom along the lines of DAL getting rid of them.
DAL would merge/be sold before another BK filing. There is not much left for them to get out of filing again. You really cannot restructure this debt any better than they already have. If DAL to file, it would be six months before the doors would be closed. Both of those things are a long way off.

 

[Minimaniac]

When are you guys going BK? If the Comair president said anything about Delta possibly going BK in the future, it was probably because we have too many RJs. That is why we are cutting back on 4000 block hours, to start with. Anderson hinted in his townhall meeting that we have too many and we need to build up mainline domestically. (he stated we will get 9 MD90s and 7 737-700s next year, besides the 4 777LRs) We have less debt than any other Legacy, and we are profitable for the year. A small operating loss MAY occur this quarter, but that is it. You need to educate yourself before making such statements. And, your E170s are being replaced one for one with E175s. United, who really is having problems (noted in the press) is getting the ex Delta E170s, and if they go away you will have major problems.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Delta's relatively better financial position does not insulate it from the financial realities affecting everyone. USAirways may begin to falter at $98/barrel oil, and United may do so at $105/barrel oil, but Delta has a breaking point only a few dollars per barrel above that. You are foolish to think that relative position equates to any absolute success. It doesn't matter if you are in row 1 or row 25 when your plane hits a mountain.

Bankruptcy is not a far-fetched proposition for even Delta. It is a tool for restructuring. Restructuring may be necessary for any or all of employers if the dollar does not gain strength. Delta can do everything right, but if the dollar continues to weaken oil can continue to rocket up through 100, 110 and even 120 dollars a barrel without any disruption to supply. Pay attention, oh wise one. The skies are darkening for everyone.

I was not referring to a growth in aircraft fleet size for Shuttle America's delta operation, but rather citing that Delta has shown a recent continued interest in Shuttle America by asking them to purchase larger aircraft. Politics aside, a newer, larger aircraft at the request of Delta would seem to indicate that Delta has found a purpose and niche for those aircraft and the associated regional supplier.

There is no security for airline employees. Yes, my company could lose a codeshare, and yes that would be disruptive and potentially crippling. Yes, Delta can go back into bankruptcy. Yes, economic policy can cripple our industry and cause a major shift in the landscape. What I fail to see is why you think you are somehow above all of this.

 

[Minimaniac]

I believe that the BK thing was stated at CMR, as being possible. It was stated in the same breath as being spun off from DAL. Look at where the new BK thing was posted. It was left vague, but look at the context of the statement. It had to do with CMR, doom and gloom along the lines of DAL getting rid of them.
DAL would merge/be sold before another BK filing. There is not much left for them to get out of filing again. You really cannot restructure this debt any better than they already have. If DAL to file, it would be six months before the doors would be closed. Both of those things are a long way off.

The possibility of a Delta bankruptcy has been discussed at other carriers as well. Our CEO has worked with a number of DCI carriers to predict the financial viability of Delta (and all of the legacy carriers who we depend on, for that matter), and worked to calculate the financial breaking points of all the partners. I believe Delta had a $115/barrel break even point, which could be lower given certain realistic conditions. Regional airlines are concerned. Delta had the highest oil price tolerance of anyone, but the overall decline in the dollar makes that 115 figure dangerously close.

Sorry I cannot recite the details verbatim, but this came directly from our CEO, and I was party to this information.

 

[contrail67]

These are merger plans...bet on it. Trimming down to merge.

 

[www.]

Sorry I cannot recite the details verbatim, but this came directly from our CEO, and I was party to this information.

And I have never ever heard a CEO speak anything but the truth, so help me god.

Where would you like to start the list from.

Martha Stewart,
Frank Lorenzo,
Dennis Kozlowski,
Bernie Ebbers,
Kenneth Lay
and Johnny Boy from Mesa

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I think that you will see the first merger in the first quarter of 08. Probably DAL and NWA.

 

[EMB170Pilot]

I think that you will see the first merger in the first quarter of 08. Probably DAL and NWA.

No no no

DAL and RAH

Bring the 170/175s to mainline please

 

[General Lee]

Delta's relatively better financial position does not insulate it from the financial realities affecting everyone. USAirways may begin to falter at $98/barrel oil, and United may do so at $105/barrel oil, but Delta has a breaking point only a few dollars per barrel above that. You are foolish to think that relative position equates to any absolute success. It doesn't matter if you are in row 1 or row 25 when your plane hits a mountain.

Bankruptcy is not a far-fetched proposition for even Delta. It is a tool for restructuring. Restructuring may be necessary for any or all of employers if the dollar does not gain strength. Delta can do everything right, but if the dollar continues to weaken oil can continue to rocket up through 100, 110 and even 120 dollars a barrel without any disruption to supply. Pay attention, oh wise one. The skies are darkening for everyone.

I was not referring to a growth in aircraft fleet size for Shuttle America's delta operation, but rather citing that Delta has shown a recent continued interest in Shuttle America by asking them to purchase larger aircraft. Politics aside, a newer, larger aircraft at the request of Delta would seem to indicate that Delta has found a purpose and niche for those aircraft and the associated regional supplier.

There is no security for airline employees. Yes, my company could lose a codeshare, and yes that would be disruptive and potentially crippling. Yes, Delta can go back into bankruptcy. Yes, economic policy can cripple our industry and cause a major shift in the landscape. What I fail to see is why you think you are somehow above all of this.

Ok, good post but a quick rebuttel. Delta's financial position is A LOT better than most, primarily because it did go through BK and did restructure, leases (airport and aircraft), got rid of debt (pennies on the dollar), and gave employee pay cuts (everyone, and pilot pensions unfortunately). They used the BK process well, and got most of what they needed. United, on the otherhand, did not, and still has lots of debt.

You are right, at some point there will be a fuel price that will cripple us all. At that point too, America will be crippled, and consumption will go way down. Less consumption will result in larger unused stockpiles, which will cause the price to fall. The good news for us in all of this is that it is also too expensive for the average person to drive long distances, and if they need to travel will probably go by air.

Delta did ask Shuttle America for a larger RJ (the E175 vs the E170), but is trading them in one for one, with United getting the older E170s. The E175 may have more range, or a slightly larger cabin, and that may be what Delta wants from them. There is no current deal asking for more than the allotted number of RJs with Shuttle America, just a one for one deal.

For Delta to go back into BK, would be very risky. BK judges don't really look favorably on airlines that go into BK twice in a row. USAir would have been liquidated had AWA not come to the rescue (something East guys still cannot see), and if Delta goes under again, everyone except Southwest will too, with Southwest hurting badly. Economic policy can hurt an industry, that is true. But not every airline is hurting the same. The low dollar value here can hurt airlines, and it can also help. Europeans are flying TO THE USA at record numbers, and legacy airlines are filling planes FROM ELSEWHERE to HERE. Those people usually go back to THERE, and that roundtrip is fairly inexpensive to them, but our legacies know exactly how much they need to charge to squeek a profit, and that is why the INTL side of legacies is helping out financially. If your airline doesn't have an INTL side, you may be worrying right about now.

I am not above it all, just looking at it at a different angle than most. We may have a small operating loss this quarter, but a profit for the overall year. The Winter and Fall quarters are never as profitable as the Spring and Summer. It is a natural cycle, with high fuel now built in. Airlines with large INTL presence can usually insulate themselves better than solely domestic airlines. It will be an interesting 08.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Minimaniac]

And I have never ever heard a CEO speak anything but the truth, so help me god.

Where would you like to start the list from.

Martha Stewart,
Frank Lorenzo,
Dennis Kozlowski,
Bernie Ebbers,
Kenneth Lay
and Johnny Boy from Mesa

Generally I would agree that CEO's can be full of crud and tell stories larger than any fisherman, but people don't lie about sitting in a room doing math and accounting unless they are denying. I'm a nerd, I would know!

 

[Texx]

Generally I would agree that CEO's can be full of crud and tell stories larger than any fisherman, but people don't lie about sitting in a room doing math and accounting unless they are denying. I'm a nerd, I would know!

Did you think Bill Clinton was telling the truth too?

The nerd that's a Captain and knows everything.

 

[B727FA]

So....Who goes?

Guesses......CHQ's 145's and Freedom?

Does ExpressJet go?

Comair? ASA?

The CQ 135's will be going starting in Sept 08 and the CQ145's have a deal through '16.

Edit: Sorry for the repost of info.

 

[i fly boxes]

my predicition of DCI carriers by the year 2010
Comair, ASA, Skywest, chq, Pinnacle, Mesaba, Compass

 

[PA44Jockey]

my predicition of DCI carriers by the year 2010
Comair, ASA, Skywest, chq, Pinnacle, Mesaba, Compass

That is 7 Carriers. Still too many. I thought the word was that Delta wanted no more than 5 carriers. Or was it 4?

 

[sweptback]

That is 7 Carriers. Still too many. I thought the word was that Delta wanted no more than 5 carriers. Or was it 4?

I don't think you got it.

 

[Jmoney]

Crude

Ok, good post but a quick rebuttel. Delta's financial position is A LOT better than most, primarily because it did go through BK and did restructure, leases (airport and aircraft), got rid of debt (pennies on the dollar), and gave employee pay cuts (everyone, and pilot pensions unfortunately). They used the BK process well, and got most of what they needed. United, on the otherhand, did not, and still has lots of debt.

You are right, at some point there will be a fuel price that will cripple us all. At that point too, America will be crippled, and consumption will go way down. Less consumption will result in larger unused stockpiles, which will cause the price to fall. The good news for us in all of this is that it is also too expensive for the average person to drive long distances, and if they need to travel will probably go by air.

Delta did ask Shuttle America for a larger RJ (the E175 vs the E170), but is trading them in one for one, with United getting the older E170s. The E175 may have more range, or a slightly larger cabin, and that may be what Delta wants from them. There is no current deal asking for more than the allotted number of RJs with Shuttle America, just a one for one deal.

For Delta to go back into BK, would be very risky. BK judges don't really look favorably on airlines that go into BK twice in a row. USAir would have been liquidated had AWA not come to the rescue (something East guys still cannot see), and if Delta goes under again, everyone except Southwest will too, with Southwest hurting badly. Economic policy can hurt an industry, that is true. But not every airline is hurting the same. The low dollar value here can hurt airlines, and it can also help. Europeans are flying TO THE USA at record numbers, and legacy airlines are filling planes FROM ELSEWHERE to HERE. Those people usually go back to THERE, and that roundtrip is fairly inexpensive to them, but our legacies know exactly how much they need to charge to squeek a profit, and that is why the INTL side of legacies is helping out financially. If your airline doesn't have an INTL side, you may be worrying right about now.

I am not above it all, just looking at it at a different angle than most. We may have a small operating loss this quarter, but a profit for the overall year. The Winter and Fall quarters are never as profitable as the Spring and Summer. It is a natural cycle, with high fuel now built in. Airlines with large INTL presence can usually insulate themselves better than solely domestic airlines. It will be an interesting 08.

Bye Bye--General Lee

$75 a barrel crude, General-that is the price. It was in the paper during BK. Is that hole in the sand pretty comfy? I would guess so-since your head seems to have a full-time home there.

 

[flyboy06]

If XJT is going out...then why are we adding A/C to the pro-rate deal for JAN 08?

Is XJT the only one with that type of deal with Delta?

11 pro-rate
10 CPA

 

[brokedash]

Regardless of who stays, DL will have to pony up some $ to free themseleves from the baggage they don't want.

RP/OO/F8/EV should all be fine

Comair will continue to be pitted againsit others and forced to bleed off planes, for at least a while.

9E/Big Sky are and will be history, respectfully.

XJ is something of a question mark, it may become clearer to make predictions on this after DL announces what will happen with LAX flying that may be displaced to another DCI.

 

[PCL_128]

I doubt 9E will be going anywhere. In fact, I expect DAL to increase their flying. I predict Mesa's demise will finally come to fruition in the DAL system.

 

[michael707767]

$75 a barrel crude, General-that is the price. It was in the paper during BK. Is that hole in the sand pretty comfy? I would guess so-since your head seems to have a full-time home there.

United's recovery plan was based on $60 oil. What's your point. Things change, airlines adapt and raise prices. I would still rather be at Delta than any other legacy.

 

[McNugent]

Regardless of who stays, DL will have to pony up some $ to free themseleves from the baggage they don't want.

RP/OO/F8/EV should all be fine

Comair will continue to be pitted againsit others and forced to bleed off planes, for at least a while.

9E/Big Sky are and will be history, respectfully.

XJ is something of a question mark, it may become clearer to make predictions on this after DL announces what will happen with LAX flying that may be displaced to another DCI.

9E is Pinnacle right? How are they going anywhere? They just started their flying, plus they have a 15 year contract don't they?

 

[samballs]

9E is Pinnacle right? How are they going anywhere? They just started their flying, plus they have a 15 year contract don't they?

Didn't Big Sky have a contract with Delta? Why do alot of you think contracts can't be terminated? Probaly because alot of you got your education from a academy. Delta may pay some fine, but if they don't like a carrier then it would make sense to pay the fine and dump said company.

 

[McNugent]

Didn't Big Sky have a contract with Delta? Why do alot of you think contracts can't be terminated? Probaly because alot of you got your education from a academy. Delta may pay some fine, but if they don't like a carrier then it would make sense to pay the fine and dump said company.

Geez I was just asking a question, and you have a snide remark about where people went to school. A little tense over the holidays are we? If you are such a genius for not going to an, "academy," please do us all a favor share some insight.

Not many people know the inner workings of these contracts and the consequences for the mainline carrier to terminate contractually agreed upon flying before the end of it's time.

So let's say Delta tells Pinnacle to buzz off tomorrow. What would Delta have to lose for breaking their end of the bargain?

 

[wmuflyguy]

Didn't Big Sky have a contract with Delta? Why do alot of you think contracts can't be terminated? Probaly because alot of you got your education from a academy. Delta may pay some fine, but if they don't like a carrier then it would make sense to pay the fine and dump said company.

If your going to crack on where someone got their education, you may want to proofread your post before you hit the submit button.

 

[flyboy06]

things like customer service, completion factor, mx reliability, striking pilot/FA group, are items that, if not met (or happen) can kill a contract.

 

[B727FA]

...alot of you got your education from a academy.

How ironic...

 

[RP170]

If your going to crack on where someone got their education, you may want to proofread your post before you hit the submit button.

The avatar he has pretty much sums up where he got his education and thus, his intelligence level. Buckeye fans usually aren't the sharpest tools in the tool box.