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DCI - 100, 50-Seaters and All Turboprops To Go.

USCtrojan

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KolobWestwind
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Mucho

USCtrojan

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KolobWestwind
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It looks like Delta will get their reduction mostly through Chautaqua and Mesa if I was a guessing man. That probably accounts for at least 30-40 aircraft right there. Further reductions will most likely be offset by more 70-90's. Especially since (I'm guessing) Republic and Shuttle will no longer be under the DCI portfolio.

Trojan
 

DoinTime

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I didn't listen personally, but Richard Anderson apparently says 100, 50-seaters and all turboprops (Saabs) will be gone in "2-3 years".

Freedom - 22 ERJs
Chautauqua - 25 ERJs
ASA - 20 CRJs

There are 67 of the 100 right there.
 

WMUSIGPI

The $100,000,000 Question
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Freedom - 22 ERJs
Chautauqua - 25 ERJs
ASA - 20 CRJs

There are 67 of the 100 right there.

(for those that can't figure it out, this is Mesaba's possible situation) I'm guessing that will mean the "unannounced" remaining 26 Saabs (no surprise there, I figured they'd all be done by 2012) and probably then the 17 CRJ200's (+2 if you count the Comair 'loaners') are all to be gone... Barring a shuffling of 70+ seaters and/or Moak coughing up more scope, that puts Mesaba at 41 planes and even less pilots than the back end of the scamruptcy from 2006...... What was that number to the truck school?
 

Monster Buck

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I just finished listening to it. Its not 100 total, its 100(50 seat rj's) + all turboprops, and as he put it 37 seat turboprops which I am sure he meant 34. Also no more 50's on any segment over 750 miles.
 

Whataboutbob

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(for those that can't figure it out, this is Mesaba's possible situation) I'm guessing that will mean the "unannounced" remaining 26 Saabs (no surprise there, I figured they'd all be done by 2012) and probably then the 17 CRJ200's (+2 if you count the Comair 'loaners') are all to be gone... Barring a shuffling of 70+ seaters and/or Moak coughing up more scope, that puts Mesaba at 41 planes and even less pilots than the back end of the scamruptcy from 2006...... What was that number to the truck school?


I agree with what your saying about Mesabi's future. I was thinking the same thing. I could also see possibly some reshuffling of 70 seaters and maybe even a possible joining of some of the wholly owneds once they are shrunk down. The only thing that can help us out now is retirements to start up again and new duty rigs to get passed into law.

Go Angels!! beat the yanks.
 

wmuflyguy

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Freedom - 22 ERJs
Chautauqua - 25 ERJs
ASA - 20 CRJs

There are 67 of the 100 right there.

Comair is parking 15 next year, though those are apparently not currently flying at the moment anyways.
 

WMUSIGPI

The $100,000,000 Question
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Really, is anyone honestly surprised? The really interesting thing will be the first report after SOC... Then we will see just how honest the "no mainline jobs will be cut" line really was.
 

SkyNation

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I hope all carriers dump Republic !!!

they will, and along with possible reductions of Mesa's UEX flying, look for increases for other DCI and UEX carriers over the next year.
 

Stifler's Mom

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I spoke with a Delta Line Check guy last week and was told that they are in the area of 1,000 over staffed right now. I'm assuming he is correct.
 

Mike man

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Really, is anyone honestly surprised? The really interesting thing will be the first report after SOC... Then we will see just how honest the "no mainline jobs will be cut" line really was.

A friend told me that as of January 1 they will be 1300+ over staffed...maybe they will offer early outs for some.
 

JumpersAway

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Perhaps I'm mistaken, but I thought Delta already made the comment that they were not interested in renewing contracts with Republic Holdings.

The 70/90 market is the hottest commodity within the DCI portfolio. I assure you that if they aren't flown by Shuttle or Republic, they will be flown by someone. This is a certainty. The only variable is the operator, and the bait. I would expect to see more two for one deals in the works as this flying becomes available.

Not only is this flying going to open up for Delta, but I expect the same to happen at USAirways and United. Neither of these two carriers are going to bolster a dirct competitors liquidity. I just can't see that happening. I'm convinced that Skywest knows this also, and that explains their reasoning in helping to prop up United and lock in contracts with them.

As soon as Republic makes a go of it on their own, I also expect that Continental will also dump CHQ. However, there probably won't be much in the way of bid flying as a result- I'd expect Continental to cut capacity in the 50 seat market and I suspect the bulk of their cuts will come from this contract termination. There might be some scraps, but nothing of much large substance.

The days of massive RFP's, rapid upgrades, and spurts of growth are now over. The regional carriers have now patterned themselves much like the legacies and nationals. Lengthy upgrades, instability, cost issues, and longevity are the new norm here. I wonder when the regional regionals will put out RFP's for cost lock in as a hedge against labor??????????????????????
 

Minimaniac

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Perhaps I'm mistaken, but I thought Delta already made the comment that they were not interested in renewing contracts with Republic Holdings.

The 70/90 market is the hottest commodity within the DCI portfolio. I assure you that if they aren't flown by Shuttle or Republic, they will be flown by someone. This is a certainty. The only variable is the operator, and the bait. I would expect to see more two for one deals in the works as this flying becomes available.

Not only is this flying going to open up for Delta, but I expect the same to happen at USAirways and United. Neither of these two carriers are going to bolster a dirct competitors liquidity. I just can't see that happening. I'm convinced that Skywest knows this also, and that explains their reasoning in helping to prop up United and lock in contracts with them.

As soon as Republic makes a go of it on their own, I also expect that Continental will also dump CHQ. However, there probably won't be much in the way of bid flying as a result- I'd expect Continental to cut capacity in the 50 seat market and I suspect the bulk of their cuts will come from this contract termination. There might be some scraps, but nothing of much large substance.

The days of massive RFP's, rapid upgrades, and spurts of growth are now over. The regional carriers have now patterned themselves much like the legacies and nationals. Lengthy upgrades, instability, cost issues, and longevity are the new norm here. I wonder when the regional regionals will put out RFP's for cost lock in as a hedge against labor??????????????????????

There has been no such comment except on these message boards. Delta, United, US Airways, American, and Continental have made ZERO public announcements regarding RAH's acquisitions, and what implications those acquisitions will have on future contracts.

What we have here is a case of believing a story only because it has been told so many times. Lots of people on FI are jumping up and down wishing for the end of RAH. And it would make sense that RAH could lose contracts down the road for competitive reasons. But everyone forgets that RAH has been taking money for years from competing airlines. American has paid RAH, who has in turn helped US Airways survive its financial woes for years. Delta has paid RAH, and in turn financed the acquisition of 70 seat aircraft for United. The single difference now is that RAH can set its own airfares on certain flights. Has this offended Delta? The truth is that Delta entered into a limited code-sharing agreement with Midwest, a direct-price-set-by-RAH competing airline. RAH has actually found some reward, not punishment from the major airlines. US AIrways will not pull any flying (nearly a quarter of RAH's total flying, pre-YX/F9) because of US Airway's need for cash, which RAH provides. Delta could choose not to renew the CHQ contract, but that is still years away, and there has been no word from Delta to indicate an early termintaion of that agreement.

The truth is that RAH meets the quality parameters of the major carriers they serve. I don't set those standards, so lets leave the lid on that can of worms. RAH performs well, and they do it at a cost that makes them attractive to the mainline carriers. You can say that RAH undercuts, and perhaps Bedford does, but I will agree that we are likely one of the least expensive DEPENDABLE regional lift providers. All I know is that whatever RAH gets paid, they are still able to pay the employees without concessions, and they are able to amass enough cash to purchase new aircraft and purchase other airlines, and still invest in side ventures. My point is that RAH has some wiggle room to keep the interest of the mainline carriers who contract with them, and RAH currently provides a reliable product to the contracting majors, and has not stopped meeting their needs.

Like him or not (I think the concensus is not), Bedford is good at GROWING his business. He does not take steps that would cause it to shrink. If the choice before him was either lose up to 2 dozen E170's and keep the profits coming, or keep 2 dozen planes and lose 85% of his revenue, I think it is pretty obvious what he would chose. If the flight intructors posing as regional captains on this board can see a potential pitfall, I am sure the CEO who has increased the size of his company ten fold while maintaining a profitable business can see it, too. Bedford keeps his job at the will of the Board of Directors. The Board of Directors reward well thought out business moves, not erratic decisions that endanger the entire revenue stream of that business.

ACA/Independence and ExpressJet entered into stand alone operations because they had to protect revenue. RAH was in no danger of losing significant revenue. THis was a willful decision that was well researched and well orchestrated. It may work or it may not, but the worst that will honestly happen is that RAH will have to sell off Frontier and Midwest. Frontier especially is a viable brand that has market interest, especially now that it is out of bankruptcy. Bedford would sell off these airlines before he gave up the meat and potatoes of the RAH revenue stream. Just think about it a little, guys.
 

79%N1

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And yet Pinnacle always seems to go unscathed. No reductions, no 2 for 1 swaps. I wonder how they became the golden child on DCI so quickly?
 
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