Could someone smart explain SKYW stock's continual decline?

[rene]

and your point is.

Have you been drug tested lately?

Sounds like someone is in denial? Open your eyes and do your own analysis. Here is how?

• Stock price down $7.35 today (it is down from $14/share in December)
• 50 million shares outstanding = $360 million market value
• Cash on hand 12/31/11 = $627 million
• Cash on hand 3/31/12 = $569 million
• cash on hand 6/30/12 = ??? estimate $478 million

Cash burn per day = $1 million +/- for rounding.

My friend, Sky West is in deep deep trouble because no one wants (needs) CRJ 200's anymore and the regional CP model is irreparably broken. Return conditions will bankrupt this company.


Just Saying, not doing drugs

 

[XPOO]

I'll meet you back here in July when SkyWest posts a $8M profit for the 2nd Quarter

 

[Oakum_Boy]

Won't last. Sorry. There is a huge trainwreck coming.

 

[General Lee]

http://m.sltrib.com/sltrib/mobile/54125064-79/skywest-airlines-regional-industry.html.csp

A good explanation of what has been happening with Skywest and the industry. A key point is that the regionals must again focus on taking control of their revenues, not just their costs, ie, code sharing, etc. Skywest has been exploring and moving ahead with these strategies and has the capital and infrastructure in place to do this when the time and circumstances are right.

NOT branded flying, but controlling its own flying through code share partnerships with the current and potential mainline partners.

If SkyWest tries an "Indy Air" deal, they very well may end up the same way. It was a good lesson for all of the regionals out there. Don't compete directly with someone you used to feed. Not good. When the majority of your planes are 50 seaters (like Indy Air), you will lose, fast.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mercyful Fate]

This is getting hilarious...

 

[Nightrain_080]

If SkyWest tries an "Indy Air" deal, they very well may end up the same way. It was a good lesson for all of the regionals out there. Don't compete directly with someone you used to feed. Not good. When the majority of your planes are 50 seaters (like Indy Air), you will lose, fast.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Code share is the future. It is Not direct competition when you code share with skyteam etc. Fee for departure and 50's are going away. The next gen of contracts will probably be code share. SkyWest isn't going to try and compete with Delta. Skywest can always change it's course. There is still plenty of competition for feed with the majors. Your not the only game in town.

 

[SnowBoardBum]

Huge volume on Tuesday – an institutional probably unloaded. Stock is overvalued compared to industry peers – trades at 32x TEV/ EBIT – median is 7.3x.

One of the lowest gross margins at 15%, lowest LTM EBIT margin of 1.78%, LTM EBIT 1 year growth at -61%. All this while growing the top-line by 23% for the LTM. That’s not impressive.

Right now the stock is trading at its mean LTM TEV/EBITDA of 4.9x. If that is any precursor to the future then SKYW can trade down to $3.07 in the next 12 month to its projected mean TEV/Forward EBITDA of 3.4x.

All that cash in the bank means squat to investors right now – stock is trading at .3x tangible book value. The Dow Transports was up today SKYW down another 1 3/4 %.

There is too much risk in the business model. Even more risk with SKYW pioneering a possibly new model of code sharing with at risk flying. If the transition works there is substantial upside.

I would not be betting on SKYW or the regional industry right now.

 

[jetstream]

If SkyWest tries an "Indy Air" deal, they very well may end up the same way. It was a good lesson for all of the regionals out there. Don't compete directly with someone you used to feed. Not good. When the majority of your planes are 50 seaters (like Indy Air), you will lose, fast.



Bye Bye---General Lee

No ******************** Sherlock. Who said they would try it with 50 seat airplanes? But thanks telling us what everyone already knows.

 

[79%N1]

Maybe an order for C Class or E195 to go alone.

 

[Texx]

code share is the future. It is not direct competition when you code share with skyteam etc. Fee for departure and 50's are going away. The next gen of contracts will probably be code share. Skywest isn't going to try and compete with delta. Skywest can always change it's course. There is still plenty of competition for feed with the majors. Your not the only game in town.

ding ding ding!

 

[FishandFly]

Huge volume on Tuesday – an institutional probably unloaded. Stock is overvalued compared to industry peers – trades at 32x TEV/ EBIT – median is 7.3x.

One of the lowest gross margins at 15%, lowest LTM EBIT margin of 1.78%, LTM EBIT 1 year growth at -61%. All this while growing the top-line by 23% for the LTM. That’s not impressive.

Right now the stock is trading at its mean LTM TEV/EBITDA of 4.9x. If that is any precursor to the future then SKYW can trade down to $3.07 in the next 12 month to its projected mean TEV/Forward EBITDA of 3.4x.

All that cash in the bank means squat to investors right now – stock is trading at .3x tangible book value. The Dow Transports was up today SKYW down another 1 3/4 %.

There is too much risk in the business model. Even more risk with SKYW pioneering a possibly new model of code sharing with at risk flying. If the transition works there is substantial upside.

I would not be betting on SKYW or the regional industry right now.

You certainly get the prize for knowing what you are talking about if all those acronyms and figures really mean something.

Just kidding. Thank you very much for an analyst's view.

 

[amcnd]

ding ding ding!

Looks like Republic is goong to try it first... 40 C series. Not to be use in conjuction with Frontier... Hmmmm

 

[79%N1]

Looks like Republic is goong to try it first... 40 C series. Not to be use in conjuction with Frontier... Hmmmm

And the DAL scope doesn't prevent this????? Huh? They are up in arms over 76 seaters, now someone is gonna fly 100+ seaters. I dont get what RAH is up to.

 

[XPOO]

RAH is/was hoping to put 40 of the C-300 online as part of their Frontier fleet, but with them now trying to get rid of that airline altogether, this could fizzle out. Their shipments weren't even scheduled until 2015 at the earliest, anyways.

 

[amcnd]

The qoute from BB said it will not be part of or fly for the Frontier system??? Bait and switch...