Could someone smart explain SKYW stock's continual decline?

[wms]

Bounce back to what???? SKYW is currently at its 52-week low. I just pulled up a 10-year historical chart for SKYW. It is appears to be currently at the lowest it has been in the past decade!!!!!

7.21

Analysts show a reasonable average of 12.33. I'm waiting for An opportunity to invest and make more money on this stock. It's worked for me pretty well in the past.

 

[jetstream]

Forced pinnacle in bankruptcy...just as he did with Mesaba, who was going out on their own with Big Sky.

Why would he "force" them into bankruptcy, then turn around and loan them $75 million if he wants to get rid of them?

 

[777forever]

Yes Delta will. I see you really don't understand how Anderson at Delta works. Your used to the old Delta management. You first have to understand Anderson's leadership and vision. To do that you only have to look so far as his history with NWA. It's a tell...to use poker language. He want's TOTAL CONTROL of his regionals with out "really" owning them. So far he has gotten rid of freedom, tried to get rid of Pinnacle's 16 900's as soon as they announced the "Q" deal with Unical. Forced pinnacle in bankruptcy...just as he did with Mesaba, who was going out on their own with Big Sky. Even the DIP financing stated why use Delta Dollars to support the competition, in the form of the "Q" operation. What's the first thing Pinnacle did when they got the DIP. Used chapter 11 to get out of the Q's and saabs. Big surprise they flew for Delta's competition in the form of Unical and USair.

I could go on and on and site you other examples of Delta's transformation into NWA like code share growth, joint ventures, ect.

My friend, we will have to agree to disagree and see what happens. $75 million is a lot different from a billion. I bet Delta uses Skywest's money. Plus I think Delta was the only one willing to provide DIP financing. No one else would do it. Obviously Delta would because the collapse of PNCL would severely affect the Delta operation

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

 

[HelloNewman]

SkyWest stock is so low because the regionals are starting to go through consolidation just like the majors have. No regional is safe and a lot of planes are probably going to be retired. If you are in your early 50s/late 40s you are in good shape. Any younger and you should keep those interview skills sharp. SkyWest was a great place to work but I am glad I got out when I did 5 yrs ago. This is the sunset of the fee per departure days. Regionals won't go away but I see them being much smaller than they are today. No union in the world can save a failing business model FWIW.

 

[WalterSobchak]

http://m.sltrib.com/sltrib/mobile/54125064-79/skywest-airlines-regional-industry.html.csp

A good explanation of what has been happening with Skywest and the industry. A key point is that the regionals must again focus on taking control of their revenues, not just their costs, ie, code sharing, etc. Skywest has been exploring and moving ahead with these strategies and has the capital and infrastructure in place to do this when the time and circumstances are right.

NOT branded flying, but controlling its own flying through code share partnerships with the current and potential mainline partners.

This has been Chip's dream for years. He's been vocal about it and I think it's finally coming to fruition.

 

[rene]

and your point is.

Have you been drug tested lately?

Sounds like someone is in denial? Open your eyes and do your own analysis. Here is how?

• Stock price down $7.35 today (it is down from $14/share in December)
• 50 million shares outstanding = $360 million market value
• Cash on hand 12/31/11 = $627 million
• Cash on hand 3/31/12 = $569 million
• cash on hand 6/30/12 = ??? estimate $478 million

Cash burn per day = $1 million +/- for rounding.

My friend, Sky West is in deep deep trouble because no one wants (needs) CRJ 200's anymore and the regional CP model is irreparably broken. Return conditions will bankrupt this company.


Just Saying, not doing drugs

 

[XPOO]

I'll meet you back here in July when SkyWest posts a $8M profit for the 2nd Quarter

 

[Oakum_Boy]

Won't last. Sorry. There is a huge trainwreck coming.

 

[General Lee]

http://m.sltrib.com/sltrib/mobile/54125064-79/skywest-airlines-regional-industry.html.csp

A good explanation of what has been happening with Skywest and the industry. A key point is that the regionals must again focus on taking control of their revenues, not just their costs, ie, code sharing, etc. Skywest has been exploring and moving ahead with these strategies and has the capital and infrastructure in place to do this when the time and circumstances are right.

NOT branded flying, but controlling its own flying through code share partnerships with the current and potential mainline partners.

If SkyWest tries an "Indy Air" deal, they very well may end up the same way. It was a good lesson for all of the regionals out there. Don't compete directly with someone you used to feed. Not good. When the majority of your planes are 50 seaters (like Indy Air), you will lose, fast.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mercyful Fate]

This is getting hilarious...

 

[Nightrain_080]

If SkyWest tries an "Indy Air" deal, they very well may end up the same way. It was a good lesson for all of the regionals out there. Don't compete directly with someone you used to feed. Not good. When the majority of your planes are 50 seaters (like Indy Air), you will lose, fast.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Code share is the future. It is Not direct competition when you code share with skyteam etc. Fee for departure and 50's are going away. The next gen of contracts will probably be code share. SkyWest isn't going to try and compete with Delta. Skywest can always change it's course. There is still plenty of competition for feed with the majors. Your not the only game in town.

 

[SnowBoardBum]

Huge volume on Tuesday – an institutional probably unloaded. Stock is overvalued compared to industry peers – trades at 32x TEV/ EBIT – median is 7.3x.

One of the lowest gross margins at 15%, lowest LTM EBIT margin of 1.78%, LTM EBIT 1 year growth at -61%. All this while growing the top-line by 23% for the LTM. That’s not impressive.

Right now the stock is trading at its mean LTM TEV/EBITDA of 4.9x. If that is any precursor to the future then SKYW can trade down to $3.07 in the next 12 month to its projected mean TEV/Forward EBITDA of 3.4x.

All that cash in the bank means squat to investors right now – stock is trading at .3x tangible book value. The Dow Transports was up today SKYW down another 1 3/4 %.

There is too much risk in the business model. Even more risk with SKYW pioneering a possibly new model of code sharing with at risk flying. If the transition works there is substantial upside.

I would not be betting on SKYW or the regional industry right now.

 

[jetstream]

If SkyWest tries an "Indy Air" deal, they very well may end up the same way. It was a good lesson for all of the regionals out there. Don't compete directly with someone you used to feed. Not good. When the majority of your planes are 50 seaters (like Indy Air), you will lose, fast.



Bye Bye---General Lee

No ******************** Sherlock. Who said they would try it with 50 seat airplanes? But thanks telling us what everyone already knows.

 

[79%N1]

Maybe an order for C Class or E195 to go alone.

 

[Texx]

code share is the future. It is not direct competition when you code share with skyteam etc. Fee for departure and 50's are going away. The next gen of contracts will probably be code share. Skywest isn't going to try and compete with delta. Skywest can always change it's course. There is still plenty of competition for feed with the majors. Your not the only game in town.

ding ding ding!

 

[FishandFly]

Huge volume on Tuesday – an institutional probably unloaded. Stock is overvalued compared to industry peers – trades at 32x TEV/ EBIT – median is 7.3x.

One of the lowest gross margins at 15%, lowest LTM EBIT margin of 1.78%, LTM EBIT 1 year growth at -61%. All this while growing the top-line by 23% for the LTM. That’s not impressive.

Right now the stock is trading at its mean LTM TEV/EBITDA of 4.9x. If that is any precursor to the future then SKYW can trade down to $3.07 in the next 12 month to its projected mean TEV/Forward EBITDA of 3.4x.

All that cash in the bank means squat to investors right now – stock is trading at .3x tangible book value. The Dow Transports was up today SKYW down another 1 3/4 %.

There is too much risk in the business model. Even more risk with SKYW pioneering a possibly new model of code sharing with at risk flying. If the transition works there is substantial upside.

I would not be betting on SKYW or the regional industry right now.

You certainly get the prize for knowing what you are talking about if all those acronyms and figures really mean something.

Just kidding. Thank you very much for an analyst's view.

 

[amcnd]

ding ding ding!

Looks like Republic is goong to try it first... 40 C series. Not to be use in conjuction with Frontier... Hmmmm

 

[79%N1]

Looks like Republic is goong to try it first... 40 C series. Not to be use in conjuction with Frontier... Hmmmm

And the DAL scope doesn't prevent this????? Huh? They are up in arms over 76 seaters, now someone is gonna fly 100+ seaters. I dont get what RAH is up to.

 

[XPOO]

RAH is/was hoping to put 40 of the C-300 online as part of their Frontier fleet, but with them now trying to get rid of that airline altogether, this could fizzle out. Their shipments weren't even scheduled until 2015 at the earliest, anyways.

 

[amcnd]

The qoute from BB said it will not be part of or fly for the Frontier system??? Bait and switch...