Class date at United and jetBlue

[JetFumes]

A little off topic, but how long can a new hire get SFO?

 

[ualdriver]

A little off topic, but how long can a new hire get SFO?

JFK DCA ORD DEN LAX SFO SEA
B400 CAP 1112 817 710 1330
F/O 5063 4522 5356 5619
B777 CAP 1550 1380 1135 1459 888
F/O 5751 5594 5687 5796 4079
B767 CAP 2987 3484 3400 2669 3413 3801 1588
F/O 6144 7913 7908 6631 7878 7966 4404
A320 CAP 4390 5540 5390 4581 4744 4671
F/O 7360 7958 7985 7986 7964 7833
B300 CAP 5438 5413 4964 2670
F/O 7815 7973 7892 5082

I have no idea how the above are going to line up, but it looks like west coast widebody F/O is just about as junior as any other narrowbody f/o seat right now. Current first officers on the property are about to released from their freezes, so many of them will bid widebody f/o for the pay, skewing west coast wide body numbers higher. I would WAG it and say even with this unfreezing, you'd be able to hold widebody f/o within a couple of years, barring the usual show stoppers. Maybe even sooner because west coast doesn't seem to be as desirable as other domiciles.

 

[crashpad]

UAL. More job security. Steady paycheck. Lots of aircraft and destination options. Easy commute.

 

[JetFumes]

Thanks for the info. I've heard you could get widebody FO fairly quick. Just waiting to see what happes.

 

[AdlerDriver]

UNITED
I would have a 1 leg commute to ORD or DEN with UAL. Opportunity to fly international someday down the road. They have a good chunk of cash in the bank. Then again, Tilton's been shopping around for a merger for how long now? No aircraft on order, not sure how the reserve works since I'll be on reserve forever. QOL? Not sure for a junior commuter.

JETBLUE
2 leg commute to JFK. Very good QOL with decent days off and shorter reserve time. Not bad pay starting out. Lots of debt and not sure what lies ahead for them if they can weather a storm so to speak if something comes along.
Many Many other points too numerous to get into here. But thanks again everyone. I'll keep doing my homework.

I’ll have to second the comment from the other freight dog. I’m having a hard time understanding how you can put QOL and a 2-leg commute, eastbound (to JFK no less) in the same sentence.

If you’re not planning on moving, commuting to JFK with 2 legs would pretty much rule out JB for me. I doubt JB is servicing many airports in ND so you’d also be talking about at least 1 leg off line (not always a big deal but it is nice to have the option of getting to work on your employer’s aircraft).

I just passed on my final UAL recall. Obviously, my situation was different but I’d still take their offer if I was in your situation. Try UAL. Either way, you’re just one terrorist attack, oil crisis, merger, economic downturn away from being on the street. Have a backup plan.

 

[Dano]

How old are you?

I passed on recall because A) I'm 40 and was 7500 ish on the list. I have descent seniority at JB (700 ish) and can hold senior reserve on the bus. I figured at UAL it would take 10 plus years to be a bus capt. B) Lets not kid ourselves with "maybe age 60 maybe 65", it WILL BE 65 very soon so UAL's stagnation will last another 5 years.

However Jetblue is a relatively young pilot group and if you take all of our current aircraft orders/options into account, we have already hired future 320 captains. All of these comments about JB guys not being happy....not true in most cases.

Bottom line is if you are young enough go UAL, if you are actually starting to pay attention to AARP stuff think seriously about Blue.

"Do you feel lucky, well do ya?"

 

[GuppyWN]

First of all I'd take the first class date offered.

Then - I'd be a little leary of BOTH airlines. JB is selling airframes and dramatically slowing deliveries. That being said - they are DELIVERIES. That means growth, even if it's slowing.

UAL has no orders. It's all about retirements there. I think it would be cool to have the ability to fly different airplanes to exotic locales but what's your career expectation like? Don't know.

Dude. You've got a tough call to make. Let us know what you do.

Gup

 

[coogebeachhotel]

Yea...there are like 500 guys from Airways. Maybe less then 10% will go back. Everyone I've flown with from Airways is happy here (JB) and staying.



Someone said "JB is played"...........I love being the underdog.

Airways guys happy? Most were going back until the merger list came out. More like frying pan vs oven....

 

[Draginass]

The future of UAL is quite uncertain. Management is still doing a poor job of getting the train back on the tracks. Merger? Not likely, I think. Pay? kinda crappy but it all is now. UAL is too big to merge, and too big to fail completely.

I think JB is going to get bought and if you don't have a union contract, you're going to suck hind tit with an integration and get stapled. Don't expect JB management to go to bat for you during a sellout.

Personally, I think I'd take my chances with UAL.

 

[bravodude]

UAL. More job security. Steady paycheck. Lots of aircraft and destination options. Easy commute.

job security and ual now thats funny!

 

[LandGreen]

I spent 4 of my 5 years at UAL commuting to reserve (my choice) and realize only now that its time I'll never get back. I was furloughed from UAL in 2003 and came to JB and am now a bus captain living in base. I'll likely make much more money over the next 5 years at JB, although, I'm likely giving up greater career earnings at UAL. Its taken me a long time to learn - and you have to realize this for yourself - you can always make money, but, you can't make time. I can't emphasize this concept enough - this is what compelled me to resign from UAL last week to stay at JB. If I lived in ORD,DEN, DCA, etc., etc., I would have gone back to UAL in 2005 and never looked back.
As stated in previous posts, pick the airline that promises the best quality of life - each have unique advantages/disadvantages and I believe both will be viable over the short/intermediate term. United will be negatively impacted by age 65 to a much greater extent and perhaps has a greater risk of merger or acquisition as well as labor issues coming to a head. Jetblue offers less career diversity at present (versus UAL) and has taken on a lot of debt which may or may not yield returns in the next 5 or 10 years.
Best of luck in your decision-making!

UAL probably will be a high risk for merger...but don't you think JB is at least as high a risk for merger or acquisition. Then you have the non union seniority integration issues to deal with at JB.

I would tend to believe that unless JB is the acquiring carrier, a merger or acquisition will be completed with a stapler. All JB pilots should in my opinion take the FIRST upgrade possible! I don't think those pilots will lose their seats in a merger, but your seniority in that seat will be frozen and move backwards until the bottom guy at (fill in the blank legacy carrier) can hold CA in an airbus. If the (fill in the blank carrier) decides to get rid of airbusses for Boeings...well the CA seats will be rebid and then JB CA's will become FO's for a long time!!

Better scenario: Go to whatever carrier is the better commute QOL, then try to get on with UPS, FEDEX!

 

[A350]

After what happened to the USAirways East guys in their "merger" with AWA under the guises of a Union/Union merger protocol, I will gladly take my chances.

The training costs alone associated with such an event would be staggering...and so would the pay to the lawyers for lawsuits. Remember how bad the training costs were for DAL? They forsook seniority, rules, contracts, past precedent, and the very fabric of what we call decent and threw it out the window letting senior pilots collect a pension before it was tossed out and stay on property to fly the heavy iron for large $$$$ while they sorted their BK chips. All at the expense of the junior pilot and all because of training costs.

A350

 

[Truckdriver]

How old are you?

I passed on recall because A) I'm 40 and was 7500 ish on the list. I have descent seniority at JB (700 ish) and can hold senior reserve on the bus. I figured at UAL it would take 10 plus years to be a bus capt. B) Lets not kid ourselves with "maybe age 60 maybe 65", it WILL BE 65 very soon so UAL's stagnation will last another 5 years.

However Jetblue is a relatively young pilot group and if you take all of our current aircraft orders/options into account, we have already hired future 320 captains. All of these comments about JB guys not being happy....not true in most cases.

Bottom line is if you are young enough go UAL, if you are actually starting to pay attention to AARP stuff think seriously about Blue.

"Do you feel lucky, well do ya?"

I agree with Dano. Most people at JB are happy. I left a few months ago to go to the big D so I wouldn't have to commute. The biggest issue I had at JB is what is in bold above. You will probably see 320 CA at UAL before you will at JB. If you do see 320 CA within 10 years at JB, you will be on reserve for a very long time. If your around 40ish, you will notice that most of the 320 captains at JB are your same age. You will retire the same time they will so there won't be many 320 guys leaving the top of the list before you leave. If you are happy being a 190 captain, then JB is a great place, but I wouldn't count on a 320 captain spot with a commutable schedule for about 15-20 years if you go now.

 

[sonic340]

Great stuff guys. I am a little familiar with the reserve system at jetblue, however, totally clueless what the reserve is like at united. Is there long call/short call, how many day stretches, do you guys have pbs and if so how is it working? I can reasonably expect to be on reserve at united for quite some time, several years most likely and need to know what to expect with that. Thanks again

 

[MEK]

Everyone mentions the "we have hired the last 320 captain already (ie 1400ish on the senority list). Yeah, I don't really think that way anymore. Who's to say the junior (320) captain won't be at 2200? FYI we have around 1900 pilots on property now.

How many (320) aircraft do we have? 105, give or take? Where is the junior captain on the senority list? 995? Do you really think we will get 100 more A320s and not have it go 1600? 1800? 2200?

Trucky says, "If you are happy being a 190 captain, then JB is a great place, but I wouldn't count on a 320 captain spot with a commutable schedule for about 15-20 years if you go now."

I don't know about that. That is his opinion. Mine is different. But it is only my opinion and like everyone elses on this website, based on speculation and guesses.

 

[ImRickJames]

Everyone mentions the "we have hired the last 320 captain already (ie 1400ish on the senority list). Yeah, I don't really think that way anymore. Who's to say the junior (320) captain won't be at 2200? FYI we have around 1900 pilots on property now.

How many (320) aircraft do we have? 105, give or take? Where is the junior captain on the senority list? 995? Do you really think we will get 100 more A320s and not have it go 1600? 1800? 2200?

Trucky says, "If you are happy being a 190 captain, then JB is a great place, but I wouldn't count on a 320 captain spot with a commutable schedule for about 15-20 years if you go now."

I don't know about that. That is his opinion. Mine is different. But it is only my opinion and like everyone elses on this website, based on speculation and guesses.

You hit the nail on the head, there are a lot of experts here that don't know sh!#. I laugh at all the speculation and the expertise on mergers and acquisitions and longevity. If they were experts, why did some of them go to an airline and get furloughed. Maybe their not the ones to give the best advice or you may be in the same situation.

From my recent experience, I have yet to meet a happy legacy pilot the last couple of years, too much taking it up the @$$ the last few years. But yet they are the experts giving you advice. Go Figure!!

 

[hmmm]

SO I read Rick James is saying one should stay at their cozy warm pile of doodoo regional contractor airline.

 

[ImRickJames]

Are you Serious!!!

SO I read Rick James is saying one should stay at their cozy warm pile of doodoo regional contractor airline.

I posted this back in Sept. 17, so the statute of limitations ran out on me answering this question. Oh, what the hell, being that I don't remember the topic, all I can tell you is that I assure you I don't recommend staying at a regional. Great, glad I could ease your worries. Merry Christmas!!

 

[Jonny Sacko]

Ya, I don't know man, 3 months later? Is that legal? Isn't that in the man-laws somewhere? #539 or so.

 

[wingslevl]

So nobody answered his question about how long on reserve at UAL. I'd like to know the answer to that one too. Anybody?

 

[pilotgolfer]

So nobody answered his question about how long on reserve at UAL. I'd like to know the answer to that one too. Anybody?

I think its too early to tell. The first class hired and most of the second class will be online this month. After IOE, they give you a hard line to finish the month, then another hard line the first full month after that.

The people on the Airbus will more than likely not see a hard line any time soon. The 737 people in DCA could be off reserve in the spring. There are only about 12 reserve lines in DCA for the 737...so as long as they continue bringing in people and as long as some of the senior FOs continue to bid reserve, then holding a line shouldn't take more than a few months.

They already cancelled the vacancy bid for June in order to evaluate the staffing needs after the Age 65 thing passed. I'm sure this will slow movement to a halt for a while.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

It's all about OIL. As the price creeps up to $100, and it will, and when the recession takes hold, Tilton and many of his counterparts in the industry are going to park airplanes. He's already mentioned it too. I'll take my chances here at JB because we have the flexibility here to keep everyone's job and an extra $300 million from LH to carry us through the rough road ahead-- Getting money in the airline industry is going to be harder and harder for growth so many have to count on their daily cash revenues to survive-- when that starts wilting away, then large companies with big payments who didn't do enough in 3 years of BK (UAUA) are going to be in trouble. Additionally, it was a slap in the face of all of UAUA's employees when the company decided to hand out $250 million to shareholders in January 2008 vs giving back what was taken away in benefits and pay-- oh wait, you guys got a contract, right?

 

[Schwanker]

Easy choice: UAL
UAL may not be the best major to be hiring, but JB pilots are young and they're growth isn't all that impressive as they're selling buses in recent years offsetting new ones. You'd be FO on the E195 for a long time at crappy pay. UAL has a much older list and you'll see advancement much quicker. Living in ND makes this choice even easier. JB's margins are not nearly as enticing as they were years ago and their market cap dropped 80%. This is due to their once dynamic growth slowing to a crawl. I'm not sure how the German influence or the Kennedy restrictions will impact JB, but it may be the first positive signs they've seen in a while. Time will tell, but if I were in your shoes I'd be off to Denver.

Schwanker

 

[viper01]

What happens when UAL starts to park a/c? Then JB wouldn't seem that bad of a choice. Options... stay at your regional or pick up as many man days you can w/your guard unit. Next year is going to be interesting.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Another thing, move... or go to NWA, they like flying up to the great white north...

 

[SonicPig]

It's all about OIL. As the price creeps up to $100, and it will, and when the recession takes hold, Tilton and many of his counterparts in the industry are going to park airplanes. He's already mentioned it too. I'll take my chances here at JB because we have the flexibility here to keep everyone's job and an extra $300 million from LH to carry us through the rough road ahead-- Getting money in the airline industry is going to be harder and harder for growth so many have to count on their daily cash revenues to survive-- when that starts wilting away, then large companies with big payments who didn't do enough in 3 years of BK (UAUA) are going to be in trouble. Additionally, it was a slap in the face of all of UAUA's employees when the company decided to hand out $250 million to shareholders in January 2008 vs giving back what was taken away in benefits and pay-- oh wait, you guys got a contract, right?

By Susanna Ray and Mary Schlangenstein

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- JetBlue Airways Corp.'s $309.6 million infusion from Deutsche Lufthansa AG may not be enough to end a nosedive at the U.S. discount carrier, which has lost more than half its market value this year.

Net debt at JetBlue surged fivefold since 2003 to pay for the fastest growth among major U.S. airlines. Now, with fuel costs rising, demand weakening and competition coming from Richard Branson-backed Virgin America Inc., the company's survival may be at stake. It must go beyond the balance-sheet boost delivered by Lufthansa on Dec. 13 to slash costs, cut unprofitable routes and slow its expansion.

``There aren't many ways they can manage themselves out of this right now,'' said Marisa Thompson, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. ``They're in a dicey situation in terms of their leverage.''

Morgan Stanley analyst William Greene in New York cut his 12-month price target for the carrier's stock to $3, less than half the current share price, a day before the Lufthansa deal and has maintained it. Of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg in the past three months, three recommend buying the stock while eight say ``hold'' and three, including Greene, say sell.

With its New York base and appetite for growth, JetBlue has spurred comparisons with People Express, a low-fare carrier that went on a six-year buying binge as it added new planes and acquired another airline before collapsing in 1986.

For JetBlue, rising oil prices and economic weakness on top of its debt may become a ``death knell,'' Thompson said.

``While this $300 million liquidity injection buys JetBlue time to execute its turnaround, its long-term strategy remains in question,'' Frank Boroch, a New York-based Bear Stearns & Co. analyst, said in a Dec. 14 report.

Share Valuation

JetBlue closed at $6.67 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. The stock jumped 14 percent to $7.15 on the day Lufthansa agreed to buy a 19 percent stake. Until then, its decline was the year's second-biggest in the 16-member Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index, exceeded only by US Airways Group Inc.

Even after a stock slide that has wiped out more than $1 billion in equity this year, JetBlue has a price-earnings ratio more than twice as high as its peers, at 33.35. ``The valuations are still pretty rich,'' said Michael Derchin, an FTN Midwest Research Securities Corp. analyst in New York.

Billionaire George Soros, an original investor, sold about 2.9 million shares this year, or about 14 percent of his stake, according to Ben Silverman, research director at InsiderScore.com, a Princeton, New Jersey-based company that tracks insider transactions for more than 350 institutional investors.

JetBlue's Growth

Since first selling shares to the public in 2002, JetBlue more than tripled its passengers to 18.6 million last year. In 2003, the carrier ordered 65 Airbus SAS A320s, taking options for 50 more, and 100 regional jets from Brazil's Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA, with an option for another 100.

Along the way, the carrier's net debt ballooned to $2.17 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, even as demand weakened. The borrowing is about the same as Continental Airlines Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. airline by passenger traffic. While the U.S. airline industry pared losses in 2005 and returned to profit last year, JetBlue, the eighth-largest carrier, posted back-to-back deficits.

Former Chief Executive Officer David Neeleman last year slowed annual capacity growth to 21 percent from 25 percent by selling some jets. While JetBlue throttled back again in 2007, it still added 12 percent more capacity through Nov. 30, even as some rivals shrank in the U.S. due to decreasing demand.

Marooning Passengers

``This is a company that's not comfortable with the idea of not growing,'' said William Warlick, a debt analyst at Fitch Ratings in Chicago, which rates JetBlue's debt at CCC, eight steps below investment grade.

JetBlue isn't discussing 2008 plans. It has 141 planes due to be delivered through 2015, which would double its fleet, airline spokesman Bryan Baldwin said.

``The premise that JetBlue is in financial difficulties is incorrect,'' Baldwin said. ``We ended the third quarter with $844 million in cash on our balance sheet and a renewed focus on profitability, free cash flow and operations. The investment by Lufthansa improves our balance sheet and increases our financial flexibility.''

JetBlue's growth pains were evident in February, when an ice storm caused it to maroon thousands of passengers in planes for as long as 10 hours. It needed six days to restore full service.

The airline hired a new operations chief in March, and the board replaced Neeleman with President Dave Barger in May.

Among Barger's main challenges has been a 51 percent year- to-date surge in jet-fuel prices. Fuel made up more than 36 percent of operating costs, compared with an industry average of 27 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Delta, Virgin America

JetBlue's main base, New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport, has also developed from being mainly a global gateway into a domestic hub for Delta Air Lines Inc., crimping JetBlue's ability to raise ticket prices.

Also flying from JFK is Virgin America, the start-up carrier partly owned by U.K. billionaire Branson, which is copying JetBlue's low fares, leather seats and live television. The new rival may reduce JetBlue's annual revenue by about $32 million, according to Gary Chase, a Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. analyst in New York.

``They have to come out with a revised strategy to cope with $90 oil and a slower economy,'' FTN's Derchin said.

Some investors see opportunity in JetBlue's stock decline. Par Capital Management bought a 2.2 percent stake last quarter. Manning & Napier increased its holdings this month to 10 percent, making it JetBlue's third-biggest shareholder.

``We're seeing some solutions put in place'' with the new management, Manning & Napier analyst Michael Magiera said in Fairport, New York. ``We look for sustained and measured improvement in operations.''

`Great Assets'

A takeover may be the final word for JetBlue, said JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Jamie Baker, who predicts a loss next year and advises investors to sell.

That fate befell People Express, sold at a distressed price to Continental's former parent.

``People Express was just growing too fast; they couldn't control it,'' said Ray Neidl, an analyst with Calyon Securities in New York. ``JetBlue management has to be very careful.''

While federal limits on foreign ownership rule out Lufthansa as an acquirer, assets including a new terminal opening in 2008, a young fleet and landing rights in New York, the U.S.'s most congested airspace, would be attractive to plenty of rivals, Magiera said.

``They've got great assets,'' he said. ``They need to get something out of it, or someone else will.''

 

[contrail67]

Sounds like 1 leg commute vs 2 leg commute ....I would pick the one that puts me home more....Plus United has a commuter policy and the 13 hour call out for reserves..plus you can pick up trips on reserve too...not sure if JB has that. Makes life a little more reasonable. Immediate insurance at UAL...family plan medical and dental...about $215 per month....(any doc you want) if that is a big deal...FYI.

 

[On Your Six]

Any update on this decision?

Go to UAL.

Did we ever figure out what decision the orginal poster made? Did he pick UAL or JB?

 

[viper01]

jb call out 14 hours and you can do all that other cool stuff...

 

[sonic340]

I did choose to go to UAL guys. I forgot about this thread actually, so I weighed all my options and took a lot of the good points everyone made hear to heart. I appreciate the input and am very happy with my call thus far. Started class in November with a 1 leg commute to ORD when I'm done with training. Was really hoping this age 65 thing would stall for a while longer, but that's a entirely different animal that's been beaten to death on here. Thanks again for the advice!